Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[SACRUS]

UKMET

[Rjay]

Well things escalated quickly tn....lol

[Nibor]

Just now, Rjay said:

Well things escalated quickly tn....lol

Time to lock the thread. It's only downhill from here.

[SACRUS]

QPF Maps 2/22 - 2/23-24

ICON:




GFS:




GFS AI AIGFS:


GGEM:



UKM

[Nibor]

GEFS is all over the place.

[NEG NAO]

36 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Time to lock the thread. It's only downhill from here.

now we wait for the Euro's to see if they  join the 0Z snowstorm party - when is the last time we had it "easy" around here almost week out with most models predicting a MECS this far out and it verifying ?

[Nibor]

AI euro is a grazer.

[MJO812]

Just now, Nibor said:

AI euro is a grazer.

Nice hit for Mid Atlantic.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

now we wait for the Euro's to see if they  join the 0Z snowstorm party - when is the last time we had it "easy" around here almost week out with most models predicting a MECS this far out and it verifying ?

Feb 2022?

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, Nibor said:

AI euro is a grazer.

IMO thats a good signal this should be all frozen precip this far north

[Stormlover74]

Nada on euro

[NEG NAO]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nada on euro

Dr. No OP in a world of its own as of 0Z Feb. 17 - the 12Z Canadian OP also had that cutter LP near the GL but changed course at 0Z

[WeatherGeek2025]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nada on euro

hey whether this hits or not, i think euro has a good name but should be on the same category as icon which is crappy! euro just doesn't run anymore like it used to it's probably on the same levels as any other global model nothing special about it anymore!

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

hey whether this hits or not, i think euro has a good name but should be on the same category as icon which is crappy! euro just doesn't run anymore like it used to it's probably on the same levels as any other global model nothing special about it anymore!

The most encouraging news at 0Z was the Canadian coming on board with the coastal solution after a solution that looked similar to the just released 0Z Euro OP - its possible that the EURO is just behind a cycle- maybe didn't receive all the updated data at 0Z - who knows - the ensembles might give us a clue

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nada on euro

Eps loops decent. Discard the op.

Euro has been struggling this winter.

[MJO812]

Geps is nice 

[Monty]

At the risk of pointing out the obvious, we have not one but two systems that need to resolve and play out that will have some impact on the upstream flow. There's at least 3 vortmax cluttered across the playing field immediately ahead of the two that would become the big coastal. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

gfs ai is a historic blizzard it's that simple 

[nycsnow]

Regular gfs is a solid hit for most big hit for Jersey…. AIGFS colder and solid 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

gfs ai is a historic blizzard it's that simple 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Euro Ai looks perfect blizzard with 1-2 feet of snow area wide 

[EasternLI]

Acceptable..

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Euro Ai looks perfect blizzard with 1-2 feet of snow area wide 

Unfortunately they are still a bit out of range but really nice consensus 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

11 hours ago, Rjay said:

It's tiring reading the back and forth about starting a thread vs not starting a thread.  Who cares.  There's no such thing as a jinx and even though the models have been performing poorly at this range this year, it's fine to discuss a storm in a dedicated thread.  Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't but if it doesn't it's not bc a thread was started.  The pattern doesn't look ideal for a big storm but who knows! Enjoy all the ups and downs of tracking a possible event.  This forum is supposed to be fun. Enjoy the weather and may the odds be ever in your favor. 

I think we should have created a thread first to discuss whether we should create a thread. 

[bluewave]

At this point we should probably stick to the ensembles like the EPS AIFS. Very tricky storm spacing since the systems are so close together. If we ever needed a perfect thread the needle to pull off a really big one this would be it. Looking at the individual OP runs gives new meaning to all over the place.

 

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

[qg_omega]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At this point we should probably stick to the ensembles like the EPS AIFS. Very tricky storm spacing since the systems are so close together. If we ever needed a perfect thread the needle to pull off a really big one this would be it. Looking at the individual OP runs gives new meaning to all over the place.

 

 

Actually the model consensus is shockingly good for this storm given how far out it is

[Blizzardo]

13 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I just checked in from yesterday and had that exact reaction! Lmao

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Actually the model consensus is shockingly good for this storm given how far out it is

The OPs have been shifting around on the track and timing every 12 hrs. So we should just use an ensemble blend at this point and hold off on the details for a few days. It’s tough to get one really big storm when the systems are only 48hrs apart. But it’s not impossible. We will need some extra thread for this needle. 

[Yanksfan]

6z EURO OP took a step towards the other models. Good improvements from 0z.