2026-2027 Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’ll use simple hypothetical examples to illustrate why I think RONI is a better way to measure ENSO for both historical classification purposes and relevant effects:

 -assume worldwide ocean anomalies are in 2026 all +1C vs 1996-2025 climo due to GW and assume it’s uniform across all of the oceans

-thus ONI would also be +1C/El Nino since it doesn’t separate out the 1C warming from GW

-but there’s no El Nino signature as it’s +1C everywhere in the oceans

-per RONI it’s perfectly neutral (0C) ENSO

-classifying it as neutral makes more sense to me

-now change it to +3C in 3.4 but keep a uniform +1C in all other oceans

-now there’s a clear El Niño signature, but how strong is it?

-ONI would classify it as +3C Nino

-RONI would classify it as close to +2C Nino, which makes more sense to me

@LakePaste25@bluewave

 

See, I would term that "what other hemispheric influences are competing to alter it and how".....ie,  while some are accentuated, other features are blunted. That is the essence of a lagging RONI value...whereas MEI/ONI are more likely to just be universally weaker and thus more prone to polar influences.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Largely a weenie fallacy that the collapse of ENSO will "save us"...DT likes to clinging to that crap and always ends up backtracking at the last moment.

100%. 1997-98 peaked the final week of November then steadily weakened right through the end of March. 2015 also peaked the last week of November then steadily weakened throughout the entire winter. Twitter kept wishcasting that the weakening was going to somehow “save” that winter and it was going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with mountains of snow the rest of the way. It also didn’t help that JB was hyping nonstop that it was a super “migrating Modoki” El Niño and said the analogs were 1957-58, 1965-66, 1976-77, 1977-78, 2002-03, 2009-10 and 2014-15 for months on end in the fall and beginning of winter. The weenies bought right into that and the DT “it’s weakening!” argument hook, line and sinker 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

100%. 1997-98 peaked the final week of November then steadily weakened right through the end of March. 2015 also peaked the last week of November then steadily weakened throughout the entire winter. Twitter kept wishcasting that the weakening was going to somehow “save” that winter and it was going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with mountains of snow the rest of the way. It also didn’t help that JB was hyping nonstop that it was a super “migrating Modoki” El Niño and said the analogs were 1957-58, 1965-66, 1976-77, 1977-78, 2002-03, 2009-10 and 2014-15 for months on end in the fall and beginning of winter. The weenies bought right into that and the DT “it’s weakening!” argument hook, line and sinker 

Well, there was a modicum of truth to it in that we had a historic blizzard, and then a few weeks later a record cold snap...issue is he sensationalized the shift and implied that it would be sustained. There was definitely a shift, though. The problem was the first half of the season we had the marine forcing competing with the +ENSO regime, so the result was a horrid pattern with ridging displaced eastward into the NE, which was different from December 1982 and 1997. December 2006 was kind of like December 2015 and I fear the coming December may be similar.

I think it was Chuck that said it fits the billing for +QBO, but getting ahead of myself there...I'm won't touch the polar domain until like August.

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, there was a modicum of truth to it in that we had a historic blizzard, and then a few weeks later a record cold snap...issue is he sensationalized the shift and implied that it would be sustained. There was definitely a shift, though. The problem was the first half of the season we had the marine forcing competing with the +ENSO regime, so the result was a horrid pattern with ridging displaced eastward into the NE, which was different from December 1982 and 1997. December 2006 was kind of like December 2015 and I fear the coming December may be similar.

I think it was Chuck that said it fits the billing for +QBO, but getting ahead of myself there...I'm won't touch the polar domain until like August.

I mentioned it a week or so ago, but +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are an extremely strong signal for warmth. Since 1980, there have been 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers and they were all warm, some were all out blowtorches

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I mentioned it a week or so ago, but +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are an extremely strong signal for warmth. Since 1980, there have been 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers and they were all warm, some were all out blowtorches

I first noticed it in 2005 when -ENSO/-QBO December's were cold. Even cold-neutral ENSO fit it, as 1989 was an analog used for 2005. It seems to work in the reverse too, which is what you like to see for a solid correlation. 

Early season Stratosphere was of importance in 25-26, so maybe there is something to Dec. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I first noticed it in 2005 when -ENSO/-QBO December's were cold. Even cold-neutral ENSO fit it, as 1989 was an analog used for 2005. It seems to work in the reverse too, which is what you like to see for a solid correlation. 

Early season Stratosphere was of importance in 25-26, so maybe there is something to Dec. 

The correlation didn't work for December 2021. That was a -ENSO/-QBO, and that December was an absolute blowtorch.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The correlation didn't work for December 2021. That was a -ENSO/-QBO, and that December was an absolute blowtorch.

It worked last December. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Maybe something related to a -AMO phase is trying to take hold as @snowman19 has mentioned several times. Hard to say if it's that or persistent +NAO/AO. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe something related to a -AMO phase is trying to take hold as @snowman19 has mentioned several times. Hard to say if it's that or persistent +NAO/AO. 

Raindance has intimated that it's shifting, as well...must be at least getting close. I do agree that the PDO will take a few, perhaps several, years longer.

[BuffaloWeather]

It only takes 1 storm to make a winter for the big cities and lake effect country. The rest of the area is screwed this upcoming winter. 15/16 was my lowest snowfall total year since I've been measuring here in Hamburg for the last 13. Right around 80"

[snowman19]

Japan’s meteorological agency has declared an El Niño. Not a surprise given the current obs and the JMA model showing a historic event
 

 

On a side note, the extreme SST anomalies off the coast of Peru continue….

 

 

 

 

^ “And according to the latest oceanographic bulletin from @ImarpePeru, sea surface temperatures continue to rise and have reached an anomaly of +7.36°C (+13.25°F) off the coast of #Paita #Piura.
Tomorrow we expect an update from the Climate Prediction Center of @NOAA on the status and outlook of #ElNiño.”

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

23 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the big story is that these extreme ridges are making seasonal forecasting very challenging. There have been at least 17instances of +10 or greater temperature months from December to March since December 2015. This is against the warmest 1991-2020 means which is even more impressive.

In the old days these would happen much less frequently like in March 2012 and January 2006.

When viewing the seasonal guidance in the fall there wasn’t any indication that these extreme months were in the forecast. I can remember looking at the EPS weeklies mid to late November 2015 and just seeing the stock El Niño forecasts of warm along the Northern Tier and cooler to the south.

No indication at all of the historic +13.3 was incoming for places like NYC. A big part of that was the MJO 5 interacting with the super El Niño to produce the extreme December ridge in the East which wasn’t forecast.

The other examples below really weren’t forecast well too far in advance. Some had extreme MJO event and others just stuck weather patterns like this past winter into spring.

 

DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3

MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1

JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2

FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3

MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

And if we wanted go back one more year, I'm sure Feb 2015 had a +10 departure somewhere in the West. I feel like 2011-12 was the tipping point. I just checked the departures, and there were places in North Dakota that maintained the +10 departure for 4 months straight, from December 2011 to March 2012.

[snowman19]

This WWB has actually increased in strength

And the new DWKW in the WPAC looks very healthy @40/70 Benchmark

[bluewave]

Even though the RONI in the 2023-2024 super El Niño lagged the ONI by 0.6, the May 2023 response at 500mb was actually stronger than both 2015 and 2026. 

My guess is could be related to the early development of 2023 especially in the Nino 1+2 regions.

So this is probably why the 500 mb ridge in Canada and warmth going into the winter of 2023-2024 was better aligned with the ONI at 2.1 rather than the RONI at 1.5.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

It’s official. NOAA has declared an El Niño

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Even though the RONI in the 2023-2024 super El Niño lagged the ONI by 0.6, the May 2023 response at 500mb was actually stronger than both 2015 and 2026. 

My guess is could be related to the early development of 2023 especially in the Nino 1+2 regions.

So this is probably why the 500 mb ridge in Canada and warmth going into the winter of 2023-2024 was better aligned with the ONI at 2.1 rather than the RONI at 1.5.

 

 

 

Lagging RONI was likely a reflection of the more meager Aleutian low, as we have discussed...but the huge ridge over the northeast was all ONI.

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lagging RONI was likely a reflection of the more meager Aleutian low, as we have discussed...but the huge ridge over the northeast was all ONI.

It appears that the -PDO through the warm pool east of Japan and active MJO 4-7 caused the Aleutian low to split into two weaker low pressure centers. Probably why the -1.5 RONI was so far behind the ONI.

But for the Great Lakes into Northeast the El Nino ridge was even stronger than would be expected with a +2.1 ONI.

Could also be the general expansion of mid-latitude ridges leading to the lack of a strong trough response in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

 

[George001]

12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It only takes 1 storm to make a winter for the big cities and lake effect country. The rest of the area is screwed this upcoming winter. 15/16 was my lowest snowfall total year since I've been measuring here in Hamburg for the last 13. Right around 80"

DC-NYC yeah but Boston is a bit different in that average snowfall is in the  low 40s, so our area really needs either 1 big one + several smaller events or 2 big ones. In super ninos we don’t usually see those smaller ones, and the bigger ones tend to be more Miller A due to the strong southern jet which often run inland a bit and rain in Boston or go out to sea. Thats why these super ninos tend to be not great for us. Not only do we not get those minor events that add up in super ninos, the storm track when the big one does hit if it does often screws us. It’s basically the opposite of the southern mid Atlantic, they tend to get fucked over by Miller Bs and clean up in miller As, coastal SNE cleans up in miller Bs and often gets fucked over in miller As. This is a big reason why I’m not too thrilled about the upcoming super Nino for my area, but we will see how things play out. Metfan was saying in the other thread some of the long range seasonal guidance was showing a coastal track, I’d like to see that on guidance come November.

[LakePaste25]

I do think we should still shy away from “recent nino events have featured a persistent W pac warm pool, so this one will too.” I think it’s a forecasting trap. Probably true that we deal with it much more frequently, but i don’t believe there’s enough evidence to suggest it’s a permanent feature. It’s very possibly we get clean canonical forcing by the fall. In fact I think we are on track to see that. It will just take stronger events such as this one to start seeing it. 

[GaWx]

 Big news in the ENSO monitoring/ranking world: ECMWF yesterday finally followed NOAA’s lead and implemented its own version of a relative Nino 3.4 index! Although the general idea is the same, it is its own unique relative index and thus is calculated somewhat differently. Also, they use different databases to determine SSTs. Here’s ECMWF’s own graph showing both the traditional and the new relative Nino 3.4 SST anomalies going back to 1982:

Note the following based on this ECMWF graph:

-Most recently relative was ~0.5 cooler, similar to NOAA

-It has 2023-4 ~same as NOAA with ~+1.5/+2 (relative ~0.5 cooler)

-Like for NOAA, relative has been cooler since ~2014.

-Similar to NOAA, the relationship was much more variable prior to 2014 including:

     -only small differences between relative/non-relative for 1997-8 just like for NOAA

     -relative being a large ~0.6C warmer in 1991-2 just like NOAA

     -relative being ~0.35 warmer in 1982-3 similar to NOAA’s ~0.3 warmer and warmest on record like for NOAA 

 

-But, ECMWF has bigger variations/extremes than NOAA for both El Niño and La Niña:

    -The ECMWF’s strongest La Niña since 1982 is just as for NOAA 1988-9, but it’s way down at -2.5 (for both) vs only -1.9 for NOAA (for both)

     -The ECMWF’s strongest El Niño is 1982-3 for both measures and is significantly stronger than NOAA with +3.1 relative/+2.75 non-relative vs NOAA’s +2.5/+2.2. This probably should be kept in mind when looking at the Euro’s ENSO progs vs history

——————————————————

Measuring the strength of El Niño – introducing Relative Niño indices 

10 June 2026

However, as the climate warms, interpreting these anomalies becomes more challenging. Rising background temperatures can make recent El Niño events appear stronger, and La Niña events weaker. 

To address this, with the support of the WMO, ECMWF is introducing an additional measure of El Niño strength, alongside the more traditional Niño 3.4 SST anomalies, in its seasonal forecast from 1 June 2026: the Relative Niño indices.

These indices compare the Niño 3.4 region with the rest of the tropics at the same time, offering a perspective that is less sensitive to long-term warming.

This will provide an additional tool for describing the likely strength of an upcoming El Niño event. Even with this adjustment, current forecasts suggest that El Niño may be unusually strong later in the year. 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/science-blog/2026/measuring-strength-el-nino

@40/70 Benchmark@LakePaste25@bluewave@snowman19@donsutherland1among others

[A-L-E-K]

time 2 torch

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, George001 said:

DC-NYC yeah but Boston is a bit different in that average snowfall is in the  low 40s, so our area really needs either 1 big one + several smaller events or 2 big ones. In super ninos we don’t usually see those smaller ones, and the bigger ones tend to be more Miller A due to the strong southern jet which often run inland a bit and rain in Boston or go out to sea. Thats why these super ninos tend to be not great for us. Not only do we not get those minor events that add up in super ninos, the storm track when the big one does hit if it does often screws us. It’s basically the opposite of the southern mid Atlantic, they tend to get fucked over by Miller Bs and clean up in miller As, coastal SNE cleans up in miller Bs and often gets fucked over in miller As. This is a big reason why I’m not too thrilled about the upcoming super Nino for my area, but we will see how things play out. Metfan was saying in the other thread some of the long range seasonal guidance was showing a coastal track, I’d like to see that on guidance come November.

The only super El Nino that was decent here is 1982.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I will say, we are due for a break, so I would not at all be shocked if this one turned out okay...like 1982. Cold, no (at least not sustained)...but some good storms, yes.

[snowman19]

There is about to be a massive warming surge….  @bluewave @donsutherland1 @LakePaste25 @csnavywx @forkyfork@40/70 Benchmark