2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Show me on the doll where mother nature hurt you....

I'm bracing for impact. My only hope is that the Super Nino and PDO act as deconstructive forces that somehow allow us to see wintry weather. 

[soadforecasterx]

Not sure the track record here but we could see another big jump soon. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

Not sure the track record here but we could see another big jump soon. 

The October "mother of all WWB" has been on the Cfs2 for close to 2 months. Hard to believe with that model, but true nonetheless. 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

It was a+2.1 event up until a few years ago before the CPC dropped it to +1.8. So until very recently it was rated as a lower end super. 

In any event, it’s rare to get a +AO +EPO +WPO pattern in October regardless of the ENSO. We haven’t since this October combination since the 2011 La Niña. 

But this time around we are getting a stronger mid-latitude ridge across the CONUS than 2011 had. Unusual to get such a strong TPV this early in the season.

 The CPC has 1972-3 peaking at +2.0 in its most up to date RONI table linked just below. Since RONI is the official way of classifying (and has been since Feb), that’s the current CPC official peak for 1972-3 rather than +1.8:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

 More on the transition of CPC from ONI to RONI for official classification of ENSO (this was released in Feb 2026):

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/announcement.php

 From the link above:

“The Climate Prediction Center is making the shift to use the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) to better designate past events and predict future ENSO.”

———————

 The table at the link below, which is to the most up to date ONI, has 1972-3 peaking at +1.8. But ONI hasn’t been the official way for CPC to classify since Feb. At the top it says this:

This page will continue to be updated by the 5th of each month, but per NWS Public Information Statement 26-05, the Relative Oceanic Niño index (RONI) is used for official monitoring and prediction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/

@Maestrobjwa

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Show me on the doll where mother nature hurt you....

We see so many posts like that, some are trolling, some just unawareness, some maybe a combination of both. But the inability for some to differentiate between a seasonal mean and the actual day to day weather is wild. The weather ebbs and flows and changes on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. This shouldnt have to be explained repeatedly on a weather forum, but it does.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

We see so many posts like that, some are trolling, some just unawareness, some maybe a combination of both. But the inability for some to differentiate between a seasonal mean and the actual day to day weather is wild. The weather ebbs and flows and changes on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. This shouldnt have to be explained repeatedly on a weather forum, but it does.

People throwing in the towel in October make me laugh. Same people do this every winter.  There are so many factors to consider during the winter.  Its not just enso.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

People throwing in the towel in October make me laugh. Same people do this every winter.  There are so many factors to consider during the winter.  Its not just enso.

Even throwing in the towel just based on ENSO, alone, would seem to be awfully bold.

[roardog]

All regions are on a rapid rise. Even Nino 4 is finally heading back up rapidly. 

[MJO812]

Mike Masco's thoughts

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mike Masco's thoughts

more like weenies gone wild

[Chinook]

I have brought back my 500mb map/ 250mb map archives for general research purposes. I started off doing this a couple of years ago for tracking the jet stream during the El Nino winter a couple of years ago. 

 

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Sep_2026_500mb_loop.html

 

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Sep_2026_250mb_loop.html

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

All regions are on a rapid rise. Even Nino 4 is finally heading back up rapidly. 

Yes some impressive warmings going on right now from the Yelllow Sea,Sea of Japan,Sea of Okhotsk and for matter Bearing Sea,this has effects from the polar cold stream vs the warm Stream and mixes out,it dont seem to matter ATM,even probably wont matter with even a typhoon recurving of of Japan,its not going to effect the PDO

[Keith Central PA]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Mike Masco's thoughts

All winter we surely going to have this discussion. There will be storrms, but will it be cold enough?.Your gonna say perfect track but there is no cold air.

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Yes some impressive warmings going on right now from the Yelllow Sea,Sea of Japan,Sea of Okhotsk and for matter Bearing Sea,this has effects from the polar cold stream vs the warm Stream and mixes out,it dont seem to matter ATM,even probably wont matter with even a typhoon recurving of of Japan,its not going to effect the PDO

When you have all these polar currents in East Asia breeding on warmth,youd want to see some of these oceans colder and not warmer.it doesnt mix out very well

[mitchnick]

Euro weeklies say "what a way to run an historic warm Niño. "

@GaWx

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202610020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202610120000

[FPizz]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

more like weenies gone wild

His take wasnt bad at all and seems reasonable.   Its not like he is saying big winter like a weenie

[LibertyBell]

On 9/29/2026 at 11:49 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Again, completely different climate on the east coast vs Great Lakes. The least days with measurable snow on record at Detroit was in 1889-90, when just 15 days recorded measurable snow. But thats still 15 days where snowfall was measured. Even Detroit and Boston, which average near identical snowfall, are completely different climates, but I know further south in NYC its more extreme. All that said, I don't see how you could ever expect a snowless winter in NYC without everything going completely wrong, especially in a wet pattern. I mean, easily rain would dominate over snow. But snowless would be an extraordinary feat. 

NYC weather is much more like Philly than it is Boston and Philly has already had a T of snowfall and NYC has had less than 6 inches of snowfall half a dozen times.  It's only a matter of time that NYC gets a T of snowfall for the season too. I'd say there's more than a 50 percent chance it happens by or before 2050. It's not a matter of wetter winters you can very easily have a cold and dry pattern alternate with a wet and mild pattern.  It's a very stable configuration that can last an entire season. And with an ocean to the south and east it's very easy to warm up quickly enough that no snow accumulates even transitioning from an arctic to a maritime airmass. It's happened many times.

[Jebman]

7 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

All winter we surely going to have this discussion. There will be storrms, but will it be cold enough?.Your gonna say perfect track but there is no cold air.

I was gonna say plenty of arctic air but near perfect track. DC scores a major winter storm with about a foot of snow. It might be a wetter snow but its snow. Even in a strong Nino winter.

[Jebman]

22 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Im loving this. Rare things equals interesting winter ahead. 

 

It will only take one well-timed cold air mass amidst all that moisture = massive snowstorm. Strong Nino winters can offer up opportunities for substantial snows.

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The CPC has 1972-3 peaking at +2.0 in its most up to date RONI table linked just below. Since RONI is the official way of classifying (and has been since Feb), that’s the current CPC official peak for 1972-3 rather than +1.8:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

 More on the transition of CPC from ONI to RONI for official classification of ENSO (this was released in Feb 2026):

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/announcement.php

 From the link above:

“The Climate Prediction Center is making the shift to use the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) to better designate past events and predict future ENSO.”

———————

 The table at the link below, which is to the most up to date ONI, has 1972-3 peaking at +1.8. But ONI hasn’t been the official way for CPC to classify since Feb. At the top it says this:

This page will continue to be updated by the 5th of each month, but per NWS Public Information Statement 26-05, the Relative Oceanic Niño index (RONI) is used for official monitoring and prediction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/

@Maestrobjwa

The old ONI that we used before the recent updates was also +2.1. It’s perfectly fine to use the ONI as a measurement of the actual intensity of the event. With an event as extreme as this RONI can make the event seem weaker than it actually is.

https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2105084471750037987

From a scientific perspective, part of the challenge is that weather patterns in different parts of the world are not equally sensitive to the same El Niño index. In South America, for example, Niño 1+2 is particularly important, while patterns across the U.S., Australia, Singapore and many other regions are more closely associated with conditions in Niño 3.4. Some rely on a blend of ocean-atmosphere indicators (e.g., ONI, RONI, SOI, EQSOI, OLR, MEI, etc.) to capture coupling. For the public, the minutiae of those indices matter much less. What's record-breaking in one index may not be record-breaking in another, and I think it's incumbent on the communicator to make that clear. At the very least, if a record is being claimed, then a reference to the index/data set being used is essential (see attached). Not everyone will read the fine print, but it's duty of care. I think there's an opportunity for a larger body to step in (e.g., WMO) to classify a record El Niño event, if there's sufficient evidence, like they would a global temperature record. Lastly, I think the RONI-ONI debate will go on for years. RONI is more closely tied to atmospheric responses. ONI informs absolute extremes. In the ONI space, every tenth of a degree matters to global water vapor levels and temperatures, and therefore, the weather. The best approach is up for debate, but I think showing both is a fair balance. One El Niño, many ways to measure it!

https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2105064342441939064

On the other hand, if you are trying to communicate the absolute strength of this El Niño vs other historic El Nino’s, how global warming has impacted it, or how it may impact global temperatures in the coming months - then use the traditional ONI or raw sea surface temperature anomalies. Certainly it can be confusing to the public, but I’d argue the relative index inadvertently obscures the larger climate signal - it can be misleading because it basically subtracts the warming that has occurred in recent decades. So it’s unintentionally deceptive.

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The old ONI that we used before the recent updates was also +2.1. It’s perfectly fine to use the ONI as a measurement of the actual intensity of the event. With an event as extreme as this RONI can make the event seem weaker than it actually is.

https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2105084471750037987

From a scientific perspective, part of the challenge is that weather patterns in different parts of the world are not equally sensitive to the same El Niño index. In South America, for example, Niño 1+2 is particularly important, while patterns across the U.S., Australia, Singapore and many other regions are more closely associated with conditions in Niño 3.4. Some rely on a blend of ocean-atmosphere indicators (e.g., ONI, RONI, SOI, EQSOI, OLR, MEI, etc.) to capture coupling. For the public, the minutiae of those indices matter much less. What's record-breaking in one index may not be record-breaking in another, and I think it's incumbent on the communicator to make that clear. At the very least, if a record is being claimed, then a reference to the index/data set being used is essential (see attached). Not everyone will read the fine print, but it's duty of care. I think there's an opportunity for a larger body to step in (e.g., WMO) to classify a record El Niño event, if there's sufficient evidence, like they would a global temperature record. Lastly, I think the RONI-ONI debate will go on for years. RONI is more closely tied to atmospheric responses. ONI informs absolute extremes. In the ONI space, every tenth of a degree matters to global water vapor levels and temperatures, and therefore, the weather. The best approach is up for debate, but I think showing both is a fair balance. One El Niño, many ways to measure it!

https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2105064342441939064

On the other hand, if you are trying to communicate the absolute strength of this El Niño vs other historic El Nino’s, how global warming has impacted it, or how it may impact global temperatures in the coming months - then use the traditional ONI or raw sea surface temperature anomalies. Certainly it can be confusing to the public, but I’d argue the relative index inadvertently obscures the larger climate signal - it can be misleading because it basically subtracts the warming that has occurred in recent decades. So it’s unintentionally deceptive.

So anything that dares to minimize CC can't be better. Typical coming from the paid CC spokesman, Ben Knoll.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

So anything that dares to minimize CC can't be better. Typical coming from the paid CC spokesman, Ben Knoll.

The planet doesn’t care about squabbles based on how humans define things. It just responds to the actual temperatures.

So the headline story for the planet right now is that we are exceeding past super El Niño events by a wide margin and it’s still only early October.

All-time SST records are increasing from Nino 3.4 to 1.2.

 

 

[LakePaste25]

10 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Euro weeklies say "what a way to run an historic warm Niño. "

@GaWx

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202610020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202610120000

Not really that crazy, october is typically cold in the east during Nino.

 

[mitchnick]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The planet doesn’t care about squabbles based on how humans define things. It just responds to the actual temperatures.

So the headline story for the planet right now is that we are exceeding past super El Niño events by a wide margin and it’s still only early October.

All-time SST records are increasing from Nino 3.4 to 1.2.

 

 

It all waxes and wanes. Nothing new in the earth's history will come of it. But I can see how using RONI could "upset" some who think (or make a living from)  the end of the world is coming.

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Not really that crazy, october is typically cold in the east during Nino.

 

I agree. But most modeling was going in a different direction and some were questioning whether this Niño was coupling. 

[GaWx]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The old ONI that we used before the recent updates was also +2.1. It’s perfectly fine to use the ONI as a measurement of the actual intensity of the event. With an event as extreme as this RONI can make the event seem weaker than it actually is.

https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2105084471750037987

From a scientific perspective, part of the challenge is that weather patterns in different parts of the world are not equally sensitive to the same El Niño index. In South America, for example, Niño 1+2 is particularly important, while patterns across the U.S., Australia, Singapore and many other regions are more closely associated with conditions in Niño 3.4. Some rely on a blend of ocean-atmosphere indicators (e.g., ONI, RONI, SOI, EQSOI, OLR, MEI, etc.) to capture coupling. For the public, the minutiae of those indices matter much less. What's record-breaking in one index may not be record-breaking in another, and I think it's incumbent on the communicator to make that clear. At the very least, if a record is being claimed, then a reference to the index/data set being used is essential (see attached). Not everyone will read the fine print, but it's duty of care. I think there's an opportunity for a larger body to step in (e.g., WMO) to classify a record El Niño event, if there's sufficient evidence, like they would a global temperature record. Lastly, I think the RONI-ONI debate will go on for years. RONI is more closely tied to atmospheric responses. ONI informs absolute extremes. In the ONI space, every tenth of a degree matters to global water vapor levels and temperatures, and therefore, the weather. The best approach is up for debate, but I think showing both is a fair balance. One El Niño, many ways to measure it!

https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2105064342441939064

On the other hand, if you are trying to communicate the absolute strength of this El Niño vs other historic El Nino’s, how global warming has impacted it, or how it may impact global temperatures in the coming months - then use the traditional ONI or raw sea surface temperature anomalies. Certainly it can be confusing to the public, but I’d argue the relative index inadvertently obscures the larger climate signal - it can be misleading because it basically subtracts the warming that has occurred in recent decades. So it’s unintentionally deceptive.

You said in your earlier post that I responded to:

“It was a+2.1 event up until a few years ago before the CPC dropped it to +1.8. So until very recently it was rated as a lower end super.”

1. The CPC officially now has 72-3 at +2.0, not +1.8, as I showed, because ONI hasn’t been official since Feb.

2. You said,

“With an event as extreme as this RONI can make the event seem weaker than it actually is.”

 No, it’s not RONI making the event seem weaker. It’s ONI making the current Nino seem stronger than it really is due to GW. That’s the reason the RONI exists.
 
 ONI isn’t per NOAA and BoM the absolute strength of the 26 Nino, itself, because that exaggerates the strength due to adding the increasing warming from GW to the warming from El Niño, itself. The warming from El Niño, itself, is what RONI measures.

 I’ll use a hypothetical example to illustrate better:

-Say that the avg worldwide tropical ocean 30 year SSTa is at +1.0 vs its prior 30 year avg. Now say that 3.4 is also at +1.0 vs its own 30 yr avg. Per ONI it’s a +1.0 Nino. But per RONI it’s at 0.0/neutral because it’s measuring the contrast of the 3.4 anom vs the anomaly of the tropical waters. NOAA and BoM at the least have determined that +1.0 is deceptively high in this example because 3.4 is up to +1.0 due to GW, not because of El Niño. 

 Measuring the true strength of ENSO means measuring the contrast with surrounding tropical waters. If 3.4 and avg tropical waters are both at +1.0c there’s essentially no contrast (no relatively warm tongue in 3.4) and thus no Nino. A contrast is needed to have a Nino (or a Niña) per the official RONI. With no contrast like in this example it is neutral.

@mitchnick

[JLPhill]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

You said in your earlier post that I responded to:

“It was a+2.1 event up until a few years ago before the CPC dropped it to +1.8. So until very recently it was rated as a lower end super.”

1. The CPC officially now has 72-3 at +2.0, not +1.8, as I showed, because ONI hasn’t been official since Feb.

2. You said,

“With an event as extreme as this RONI can make the event seem weaker than it actually is.”

 No, it’s not RONI making the event seem weaker. It’s ONI making the current Nino seem stronger than it really is due to GW. That’s the reason the RONI exists.
 
 ONI isn’t per NOAA and BoM the absolute strength of the 26 Nino, itself, because that exaggerates the strength due to adding the increasing warming from GW to the warming from El Niño, itself. The warming from El Niño, itself, is what RONI measures.

 I’ll use a hypothetical example to illustrate better:

-Say that the avg worldwide tropical ocean 30 year SSTa is at +1.0 vs its prior 30 year avg. Now say that 3.4 is also at +1.0 vs its own 30 yr avg. Per ONI it’s a +1.0 Nino. But per RONI it’s at 0.0/neutral because it’s measuring the contrast of the 3.4 anom vs the anomaly of the tropical waters. NOAA and BoM at the least have determined that +1.0 is deceptively high in this example because 3.4 is up to +1.0 due to GW, not because of El Niño. 

 Measuring the true strength of ENSO means measuring the contrast with surrounding tropical waters. If 3.4 and avg tropical waters are both at +1.0c there’s essentially no contrast (no relatively warm tongue in 3.4) and thus no Nino. A contrast is needed to have a Nino (or a Niña) per the official RONI. With no contrast like in this example it is neutral.

@mitchnick

 

How much is this complicated by the fact that some of the feedbacks reinforcing El Niño depend on absolute SST ? Convection becomes much more favorable once SSTs reach roughly 27–28C, and when that convection shifts eastward it can weaken the trade winds and reinforce El Niño.

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, JLPhill said:

 

How much is this complicated by the fact that some of the feedbacks reinforcing El Niño depend on absolute SST ? Convection becomes much more favorable once SSTs reach roughly 27–28C, and when that convection shifts eastward it can weaken the trade winds and reinforce El Niño.

 As the globe warms, the threshold for the SST becoming much more favorable for convection warms:

 

Significant Increase in Sea Surface Temperature at the Genesis of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems

“We show that this threshold (SSTG) has undergone a significant warming trend at a rate of ∼0.2°C per decade. The SSTG shows a remarkable correspondence with the tropical mean SST and upper-tropospheric temperature on interannual and longer timescales.”

“The development of tropical ocean showers and thunderstorms requires a warm ocean surface as an energy source fueling the storm.”

”Using satellite observations and a high-resolution global climate model, we show that this threshold has undergone a significant warming trend during the past several decades and will continue to increase in the future. This warming trend is closely related to the changes in the tropical mean SST. A constant relationship between the SST threshold and upper-tropospheric temperature is found in both the current climate and a warming climate, which corroborates the argument that tropospheric temperatures in the tropics approximately follow a moist adiabatic adjustment.”

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101950

[EasternLI]

There's a whole different complexion to the Pacific look on modeling since a couple of days ago. Looks like a big GOA low idea was too aggressive and won't verify as was originally advertised. As a result, much more of an -EPO look coming up instead. Interesting to see the ridge east of Japan trend to be just a little bit squashed too during that time. Will be interested to see how much the current 11-15 day look transforms as we move forward with all that in mind.

[EastonSN+]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

NYC weather is much more like Philly than it is Boston and Philly has already had a T of snowfall and NYC has had less than 6 inches of snowfall half a dozen times.  It's only a matter of time that NYC gets a T of snowfall for the season too. I'd say there's more than a 50 percent chance it happens by or before 2050. It's not a matter of wetter winters you can very easily have a cold and dry pattern alternate with a wet and mild pattern.  It's a very stable configuration that can last an entire season. And with an ocean to the south and east it's very easy to warm up quickly enough that no snow accumulates even transitioning from an arctic to a maritime airmass. It's happened many times.

Its a risk / reward climate here. The chances of breaching 95/96 for the snowiest winter is also on the table any given year due to our proximity to the ocean (noreasters) and latitude. I can see both happening in my lifetime.

In fact the snowiest winter was only 2 years prior to the latest snowfall year of 97/98