2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The PDO drop back is unfortunate. It’s now around where it was at this time last year, and there is still some time for the PDO to rise back up to near neutral once the marine heat wave area cools off with the season change.

But I think +PDO territory is off the table, and the clock is ticking for us to even get back to neutral. 

The seasonal forecast models continue to underestimate the mid-latitude 500mb ridging pattern leading to this persistent -PDO.

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Did you mean December 1992 Chris? That storm was far more historic than this one.

Like 1983 it won't stop a historic hot summer for next year.

 

Yes but 1983 had an exceptional endless hot summer from June through September so the el nino did not make the summer cooler.

1982-83 and 2015-16 had some similarities. 

If anything it would be less snow than 1997-98 as that late March event was a complete fluke and the airports got less snow. 2001-02 had even less snow. At the coast latitude doesn't really matter unless you're north of 42N you have the potential to be completely shut out of snow. Both 1982-83 and 2015-16 were far better for snow than 1997-98 was with much more late season blocking. In April 1983 JFK had their latest snowfall on record.

 

Again, completely different climate on the east coast vs Great Lakes. The least days with measurable snow on record at Detroit was in 1889-90, when just 15 days recorded measurable snow. But thats still 15 days where snowfall was measured. Even Detroit and Boston, which average near identical snowfall, are completely different climates, but I know further south in NYC its more extreme. All that said, I don't see how you could ever expect a snowless winter in NYC without everything going completely wrong, especially in a wet pattern. I mean, easily rain would dominate over snow. But snowless would be an extraordinary feat. 

[GaWx]

 After having finally gotten back to slightly AN since late Aug (that was 1st time since way back in early May), note the recent drop and how cold it was yesterday N of 80N:

 

 2026 having it this cold N of 80N on Sep 28th is per this site technically the coldest this early in the season in 30 years, quite notable! I say “technically” though because it only barely beat 2011, 2004, and 2000. 

 Regardless, the most interesting comparison is to 2012-25, which were all much warmer/AN on Sep 28th:

1958-2002 mean: -11C
26: -13C
25: -7C
24: -9C
23: -8C
22: -7C
21: -8C
20: -5C
19: -5C
18: -5C
17: -8C
16: -7C
15: -8C
14: -7C
13: -9C
12: -9C
2012-25 mean: -7C

So, regarding Sep 28th, 2026 is:
1. 4-8C colder than every year since 2012
2. 6C colder than the mean of 2012-2025

 Yes, I’m mainly only talking in this post about a point in time and 80N+ is a small area in relation to the N hemisphere (only 1.5%). But it is a very important 1.5% due to Arctic ice. Also, that area is just coming off the coldest late May-early Aug back to 1958 by a good margin, implying the possibility that this overall cooling up there will have legs.

 I’ll keep following this to see if there’s cooling trend follow-through up there going ahead as this is quite interesting, especially due to its implications on Arctic ice since GW had lead to the greatest warming by a good margin in the Arctic. Is it possible that the massive warming up there is done at least for awhile? Could there be a new cycle that’s just started?

@Stormchaserchuck1@bluewave@Wild Weather Monger

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 After having finally gotten back to slightly AN since late Aug (that was 1st time since way back in early May), note the recent drop and how cold it was yesterday N of 80N:

 

 2026 having it this cold N of 80N on Sep 28th is per this site technically the coldest this early in the season in 30 years, quite notable! I say “technically” though because it only barely beat 2011, 2004, and 2000. 

 Regardless, the most interesting comparison is to 2012-25, which were all much warmer/AN on Sep 28th:

1958-2002 mean: -11C
26: -13C
25: -7C
24: -9C
23: -8C
22: -7C
21: -8C
20: -5C
19: -5C
18: -5C
17: -8C
16: -7C
15: -8C
14: -7C
13: -9C
12: -9C
2012-25 mean: -7C

So, regarding Sep 28th, 2026 is:
1. 4-8C colder than every year since 2012
2. 6C colder than the mean of 2012-2025

 Yes, I’m mainly only talking in this post about a point in time and 80N+ is a small area in relation to the N hemisphere (only 1.5%). But it is a very important 1.5% due to Arctic ice. Also, that area is just coming off the coldest late May-early Aug back to 1958 by a good margin, implying the possibility that this overall cooling up there will have legs.

 I’ll keep following this to see if there’s cooling trend follow-through up there going ahead as this is quite interesting, especially due to its implications on Arctic ice since GW had lead to the greatest warming by a good margin in the Arctic. Is it possible that the massive warming up there is done at least for awhile? Could there be a new cycle that’s just started?

@Stormchaserchuck1@bluewave@Wild Weather Monger

2004 was a weak El Nino...any other warm ENSO years on that list?

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2004 was a weak El Nino...any other warm ENSO years on that list?

2011 was moderate La Niña while 2000 was weak La Niña. Also, both were coming off of a prior year’s Niña.