February Banter 2026

[George BM]

Saturday, February 14, 2026 1:28PM EST

Blizzard Warning in effect from 5PM EST Saturday, February 14, 2026 until 4AM EST Sunday, February 15, 2026.

Cold Weather Advisory in effect from 9PM EST Saturday, February 14, 2026 until 9AM EST Sunday, February 15, 2026.

Showers and thunderstorms have started popping up along the cold front along I-81 in Maryland and extending down into northwestern VA. These will get more organized and quickly move east across the region with the front cruising through. With MLCAPE approaching 500 J/kg owing to the cooling mid-levels above surface temperatures and dewpoints into the low/mid 60s and upper 40s/low 50s respectively, some hail, perhaps marginally severe, as well as strong/damaging wind gusts will accompany these storms. This is in response to a very strong and compact, cold shortwave diving out of the northwest.

As we get into the late afternoon and evening hours this shortwave will be strongly interacting with the frontal boundary that will be over our eastern areas during this time. As a result, a surface low will explosively deepen over southern MD as increasingly heavy anafrontal precip blossoms over the entire region as very strong lift underneath impressive upper-level divergence overspreads the region. Rain will quickly change over to snow as precip becomes heavy and as much colder air behind the front surges in. The deepening low will not be moving much as it phases in with the shortwave allowing bands of very to extremely heavy snow to organize over the region west of the Chesapeake Bay. This will also increase the surface pressure gradient leading to strong/damaging NW winds gusting up to the 55 to 65mph range. Continued strong CAA through the evening will allow temps to drop into the upper teens in most areas, especially as the storm starts pull east later tonight, dropping windchills to near 5F below zero.

All in all, with 3 to 5+ inch/hr snowfall rates and sustained winds over 40mph w/ up to 65mph wind gusts reducing visibilities to 200 feet or less at times over the course of roughly 5 to 7 hours, this will far exceed the threshold for blizzard conditions.

Sensible weather-wise this will be similar in magnitude to the Presidents Day Storm of 1979 with the two noticeable differences being the most intense blizzard conditions occurring over the immediate DC metro area and the fact that it is very warm leading up to this storm. The pre-storm warmth will mean that there is the added danger of initially wet pavement and roads freezing over once temperatures drop below freezing making for dangerous travel conditions.

After midnight the compact storm will pull east-southeastwards allowing snow to end from west to east. Snowfall totals will range from 18-24 inches across most of the region with localized spots getting up to 30 inches, particularly higher windward elevations north and west as well as any areas that get stuck under a heavy snow band. With the high winds associated with the storm, however, snow drifts could be as high as 12 to 15 feet in some spots.

[Jebman]

George BM.

You need to brief the NWS.

That is how professional your forecast scenarios are.

[Jebman]

This is a question to the Mets on here and/or expert hobbyists like PSU.

Why is it so cold in the East for so long? Why is it so cold in Texas for so long? It's going down to 15 again tonight! We can't take this any more!

What kind of Blocking are we experiencing right now?

Please don't tell me the amoc has stopped. I can't take that kind of cold. I don't want to see one drop of frzra or one pellet of that damn sleet NO MORE!

[BlizzardNole]

Whoa it's February!  Copying from the Jan thread:

Our 20s daughter lives by herself in an apartment Newport, just up from Morehead City.  We got her to ask her company of she could remote work a few days next week and get up here, and they said yes so she came home Friday.  We are so glad because her area looks to be hardest hit with unofficial reports of 20-plus inches!  Going down to 10 degrees tonight.  That area is going to be paralyzed.  This is a traffic cam in Newport

US 70 (Arendell St) @ NC 24 Traffic Cam

 

[nw baltimore wx]

6 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Whoa it's February!  Copying from the Jan thread:

Our 20s daughter lives by herself in an apartment Newport, just up from Morehead City.  We got her to ask her company of she could remote work a few days next week and get up here, and they said yes so she came home Friday.  We are so glad because her area looks to be hardest hit with unofficial reports of 20-plus inches!  Going down to 10 degrees tonight.  That area is going to be paralyzed.  This is a traffic cam in Newport

US 70 (Arendell St) @ NC 24 Traffic Cam

 

You did this backwards! You should have asked if you could telework and you go there! 

Glad she’s okay.

[BlizzardNole]

33 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You did this backwards! You should have asked if you could telework and you go there! 

Glad she’s okay.

Oh believe me if we didn't have so much going on with our new house being finished next week I absolutely would have gone down there!  I've already told my wife that living in lower southern MD and being retired, I am going to snow chase a couple times each winter.  For one thing, I wanna see a lake effect snow.

[Kay]

13 hours ago, TowsonWeather said:

Not crapping on it at all - it was a super fun event. At least for where I am, my back is still reminding me that I shoveled majority sleet, hehe. The 4 or so inches of sleet easily felt like it weighs double or triple the 7 inches of snow did, that's for sure. 

My method, though unplanned, worked well. Didn't shovel at all until the next day. Then methodically removed the ice crust in sheets with a hammer and my hands (no shovel). Then shoveled the soft, light snow underneath. Then moved on to next section of removing ice crust. Doing in sections kept exposed snow from hardening, and made a break possible. My back felt it, but could have been much worse. Caveat don't have a really long driveway thankfully. Ended up really glad I didn't shovel during the storm. Those who did had an easy final clean up but also worked during the storm so eh.

[BlizzardNole]

21 minutes ago, Kay said:

My method, though unplanned, worked well. Didn't shovel at all until the next day. Then methodically removed the ice crust in sheets with a hammer and my hands (no shovel). Then shoveled the soft, light snow underneath. Then moved on to next section of removing ice crust. Doing in sections kept exposed snow from hardening, and made a break possible. My back felt it, but could have been much worse. Caveat don't have a really long driveway thankfully. Ended up really glad I didn't shovel during the storm. Those who did had an easy final clean up but also worked during the storm so eh.

Some neighbors with a sloped driveway did this!  They were out there breaking squares of ice, turning them upside down, and sliding them down the driveway.  Then they had a few inches of powder to push.  Smart!  Their driveway also faces south which is nice.

I left about an inch of sleet on ours which is now pure, smooth ice

[Kay]

7 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Some neighbors with a sloped driveway did this!  They were out there breaking squares of ice, turning them upside down, and sliding them down the driveway.  Then they had a few inches of powder to push.  Smart!  Their driveway also faces south which is nice.

I left about an inch of sleet which is now pure, smooth ice

Oh wow that must have been cool with a sloped driveway. Would like to watch a vid of this. Haha. Mine slopes away a tiny bit, on one side. That ice crust was (is) so slick though that the sheared off sheets slid away with a push, and small ones not bad to just chuck away. I may have been making smaller sheets than them. Doing this method with a team and big sheets sounds kind of fun! I liked not dealing with wielding a shovel for the ice chunks part. I hold my own but am not the biggest, strongest person out there, creativity paid off. 

[BlizzardNole]

28 minutes ago, Kay said:

Oh wow that must have been cool with a sloped driveway. Would like to watch a vid of this. Haha. Mine slopes away a tiny bit, on one side. That ice crust was (is) so slick though that the sheared off sheets slid away with a push, and small ones not bad to just chuck away. I may have been making smaller sheets than them. Doing this method with a team and big sheets sounds kind of fun! I liked not dealing with wielding a shovel for the ice chunks part. I hold my own but am not the biggest, strongest person out there, creativity paid off. 

Back in the 80s when I was a kid in Calvert, we had 6" of snow with a half inch ice glaze on top.  We had a bright full moon with temps in the teens one night and it looked like a different planet with the shiny, silver landscape as far as you could see.  We were taking 2-foot squares of ice and sliding them down a long hill.  You could hear them sliding into the woods hundreds of feet away.  

[Kay]

23 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Back in the 80s when I was a kid in Calvert, we had 6" of snow with a half inch ice glaze on top.  We had a bright full moon with temps in the teens one night and it looked like a different planet with the shiny, silver landscape as far as you could see.  We were taking 2-foot squares of ice and sliding them down a long hill.  You could hear them sliding into the woods hundreds of feet away.  

FUN! (takes notes) (never too old)

[snowfan]

Still have local districts canceling school bc of last Sundays storm. At some point, Lil timmy just needs to get back in the classroom. 

[BlizzardNole]

I just cleared off our deck so the dog has some nice sun to sit in once we get to the 30s.  Breaking up big bricks of ice and sliding them off the snow made me think of the beast of a snow fort kids could make with this stuff.

[Paleocene]

Moco schools closed tomorrow for students. Staff have to report 

[ErinInTheSky]

I don’t see how MCPS opens tomorrow either. Even in the Kentlands the ice and snow piles are huge and sidewalks still quite hazardous. Busses literally can’t drive many routes.

 

this region is paralyzed.

[snowfan]

Intended this for banter....

I know this stuff often turns into a big debate, but if the argument for not sending kids to school is lack of shoveled sidewalks or lack of plowed turn lanes, what's the end game with that? Aside from south facing surfaces, melting this week will not be significant. So then you're talking about keeping them home again this week??? What if sidewalks are still shit come Friday when the arctic front comes through? Then you keep them home the following as well? There aren't enough willing bodies to clear sidewalks that have yet to be touched....its a waiting game on a melt out at this point.

[ThePhotoGuy]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

Intended this for banter....

I know this stuff often turns into a big debate, but if the argument for not sending kids to school is lack of shoveled sidewalks or lack of plowed turn lanes, what's the end game with that? Aside from south facing surfaces, melting this week will not be significant. So then you're talking about keeping them home again this week??? What if sidewalks are still shit come Friday when the arctic front comes through? Then you keep them home the following as well? There aren't enough willing bodies to clear sidewalks that have yet to be touched....its a waiting game on a melt out at this point.

Agreed. Often people forget that in many areas schools provide free breakfasts and lunches that kids are likely missing out with schools being closed. 

 

Below is a picture from in front of Riviera Beach Elementary from this afternoon. I was surprised that Anne Arundel  hasn’t prioritized the clearing of roads in front of and around the school especially since this is only a walking school (except prek and kindergarteners). 

 

 

[MillvilleWx]

Just some context for how insane this cold outbreak is in Florida, here are some nuggets for your viewing pleasure....

• Great Falls, MT was officially warmer than Key West, FL today by 4 whole degrees (62F vs 58F)
• Boca Raton, FL never got out of the 40s for a high (48F)
• Havana, Cuba just BARELY beat out Great Falls for a high today (63F vs 62F)
• 12z sounding from KEY eclipsed their low 850mb temp record for the day by reporting below 0C after never recording below 5C on this date at any point in their history of record dating back to 1954
• The 850mb temperature at KEY was -1.8C at 12z. If this is confirmed, it will be the all time coldest 850mb temperature ever recorded via RAOB at Key West, again dating back to obs from 1954. Over 40000 soundings have been launched in its period of record

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I have no idea, found it on the intewebz.  What's the name of the docu drama again?

The Genius of Beethoven - 3 Part Series (One for each creative phase )

 

 

[adelphi_sky]

You guys have no idea how happy I am that my kids got to experience something I have never experienced myself. We went snow tubing on a local field that was at least 6 acres. Walking on the clean snowpack without our feet making footprints was wild!  I'm 280lbs and I was literally running and my feet did not create footprints!   And the tubing on the slickest surface ever? Kids loved it. The tube went fast and far. They could even slide down the hill on their butts! They laughed and had a good time. It is an awesome experience. If we don't get another inch, the last storm will create lasting memories which is good for any kid. 

[Kay]

4 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

You guys have no idea how happy I am that my kids got to experience something I have never experienced myself. We went snow tubing on a local field that was at least 6 acres. Walking on the clean snowpack without our feet making footprints was wild!  I'm 280lbs and I was literally running and my feet did not create footprints!   And the tubing on the slickest surface ever? Kids loved it. The tube went fast and far. They could even slide down the hill on their butts! They laughed and had a good time. It is an awesome experience. If we don't get another inch, the last storm will create lasting memories which is good for any kid. 

This is awesome! I don't remember the last time it was this easy to walk on a snowpack around here. 

[ErinInTheSky]

When models killed our 2 feet of snow in favor of 8-12 with 4” of sleet this is why I kept smiling and telling people that it made me even more excited. I know big snow number is something we all love but the 2017 sleet storm converted me and I knew what was possible. This storm delivered beyond my imagination. Cars will be locked in glaciers for weeks. The world is white and frozen. I love this so much lol.

[adelphi_sky]

14 hours ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

Agreed. Often people forget that in many areas schools provide free breakfasts and lunches that kids are likely missing out with schools being closed. 

 

Below is a picture from in front of Riviera Beach Elementary from this afternoon. I was surprised that Anne Arundel  hasn’t prioritized the clearing of roads in front of and around the school especially since this is only a walking school (except prek and kindergarteners). 

 

 

PGCPS closed today. We drove by my daughter's school just yesterday afternoon and the entrance hadn't even been touched! 

[nw baltimore wx]

39 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

PGCPS closed today. We drove by my daughter's school just yesterday afternoon and the entrance hadn't even been touched! 

I had to take my mom to an appointment and there are major 3-lane roads in Bowie that are still a single lane, and there’s no way to move the piles on the other two lanes without a front loader.