February Banter 2026

[George BM]

Saturday, February 14, 2026 1:28PM EST

Blizzard Warning in effect from 5PM EST Saturday, February 14, 2026 until 4AM EST Sunday, February 15, 2026.

Cold Weather Advisory in effect from 9PM EST Saturday, February 14, 2026 until 9AM EST Sunday, February 15, 2026.

Showers and thunderstorms have started popping up along the cold front along I-81 in Maryland and extending down into northwestern VA. These will get more organized and quickly move east across the region with the front cruising through. With MLCAPE approaching 500 J/kg owing to the cooling mid-levels above surface temperatures and dewpoints into the low/mid 60s and upper 40s/low 50s respectively, some hail, perhaps marginally severe, as well as strong/damaging wind gusts will accompany these storms. This is in response to a very strong and compact, cold shortwave diving out of the northwest.

As we get into the late afternoon and evening hours this shortwave will be strongly interacting with the frontal boundary that will be over our eastern areas during this time. As a result, a surface low will explosively deepen over southern MD as increasingly heavy anafrontal precip blossoms over the entire region as very strong lift underneath impressive upper-level divergence overspreads the region. Rain will quickly change over to snow as precip becomes heavy and as much colder air behind the front surges in. The deepening low will not be moving much as it phases in with the shortwave allowing bands of very to extremely heavy snow to organize over the region west of the Chesapeake Bay. This will also increase the surface pressure gradient leading to strong/damaging NW winds gusting up to the 55 to 65mph range. Continued strong CAA through the evening will allow temps to drop into the upper teens in most areas, especially as the storm starts pull east later tonight, dropping windchills to near 5F below zero.

All in all, with 3 to 5+ inch/hr snowfall rates and sustained winds over 40mph w/ up to 65mph wind gusts reducing visibilities to 200 feet or less at times over the course of roughly 5 to 7 hours, this will far exceed the threshold for blizzard conditions.

Sensible weather-wise this will be similar in magnitude to the Presidents Day Storm of 1979 with the two noticeable differences being the most intense blizzard conditions occurring over the immediate DC metro area and the fact that it is very warm leading up to this storm. The pre-storm warmth will mean that there is the added danger of initially wet pavement and roads freezing over once temperatures drop below freezing making for dangerous travel conditions.

After midnight the compact storm will pull east-southeastwards allowing snow to end from west to east. Snowfall totals will range from 18-24 inches across most of the region with localized spots getting up to 30 inches, particularly higher windward elevations north and west as well as any areas that get stuck under a heavy snow band. With the high winds associated with the storm, however, snow drifts could be as high as 12 to 15 feet in some spots.

[Jebman]

George BM.

You need to brief the NWS.

That is how professional your forecast scenarios are.

[Jebman]

This is a question to the Mets on here and/or expert hobbyists like PSU.

Why is it so cold in the East for so long? Why is it so cold in Texas for so long? It's going down to 15 again tonight! We can't take this any more!

What kind of Blocking are we experiencing right now?

Please don't tell me the amoc has stopped. I can't take that kind of cold. I don't want to see one drop of frzra or one pellet of that damn sleet NO MORE!