February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[SnowGoose69]

Bit of a model battle on the Thursday event.  I sort of lean towards a flatter idea now but the setup looks sort of disjointed on many ensembles.  Not sure anything over 2-4 is realistic.

[Winterweatherlover]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Bit of a model battle on the Thursday event.  I sort of lean towards a flatter idea now but the setup looks sort of disjointed on many ensembles.  Not sure anything over 2-4 is realistic.

To be honest after today and the aftermath id rather a small 1-3/2-4 inch type storm to whiten the snow than another big storm. 

[Winterweatherlover]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs !

Not sure where they’ll put the snow on the NJ coast if this verifies! 

[kat5hurricane]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs !

[SnowGoose69]

12Z AIEURO was way north...Op Euro a mixed bag mess.

[MJO812]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

12Z AIEURO was way north...Op Euro a mixed bag mess.

Yep models all over

[SleetStormNJ]

Getting spoiled or no mas for a snowpack refresher in late February/early March.  Oh the winter.

[stevieg]

HRRR showing single digits Wednesday morning - will be interesting to see if that verifies once temperatures fall below freezing again this evening

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, stevieg said:

HRRR showing single digits Wednesday morning - will be interesting to see if that verifies once temperatures fall below freezing again this evening

single digits?  I guess with the fresh snowpack and radiational cooling

[EastonSN+]

Are we getting a reversal 

[MJO812]

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

single digits?  I guess with the fresh snowpack and radiational cooling

Sometimes after a good coastal storm, we get an unexpected pull of colder air, not seen by the models that picked up the coastal storm.  Go figure...

[TriPol]

470 
WOXX11 KWNP 232141
WARK05

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2200
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 23 2139 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Feb 23 2140 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Feb 24 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

# Issued by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Recent messages, data, and help at http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/
# Send questions to [email protected]

 

[Dan76]

[donsutherland1]

A monster blizzard has departed the region after leaving its mark in the record books. Central Park saw its 9th biggest snowstorm on record. Newark experienced its second largest snowstorm. Bridgeport's 20.0" snowfall tied February 17-18, 2003 for the second biggest on record. Both Islip and Providence set new records for their biggest snowstorm on record. 1 SE Warwick, RI picked up 36.2" of snow.

New York City's 10 Biggest Snowstorms:

1 27.5", January 22-24, 2016
2 26.9", February 11-12, 2006
3 26.4", December 26-27, 1947
4 21.0", March 12-14, 1888
5 20.9", February 25-26, 2010
6 20.2", January 7-8, 1996
7 20.0", December 26-27, 2010
8 19.8", February 16-17, 2003
9 19.7", February 22-23, 2026
10 19.0", January 26-27, 2011

As a result, Winter 2025-2026 has become just the 10th winter with two 10" or above snowstorms in New York City. The others were 1895-1996, 1925-1926, 1960-1961, 1977-1978, 1995-1996, 2003-2004, 2009-2010 (3 such storms), 2010-2011, and 2013-2014. Even more impressive, Winter 2025-2026 will is on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 40.0" or above.

Following the blizzard, tomorrow will be fair and unseasonably cold. Wednesday will be somewhat milder with some rain showers. A period of  rain or wet snow is possible late Thursday and Thursday night.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +5.96 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.459 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.