February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[SACRUS]

Today's Splits:

EWR: 44 / 37 (+5)
NYC" 42 / 6 (+2)

[ForestHillWx]

Getting some good rain this morning; the snow pack remains strong in my area, but a few thinner areas have developed. 

[Freezing Drizzle]

Drought map --

CA, no drought in the state
I thought northern FL got a soaking rain this week from that southern storm.
Part of north Jersey? You guys up there seeing this?
Part of Northern Arkansas, wow.

[Snowlover11]

Raining at work in yonkers, once across the bridge it was a mix. Sleeting here in Nanuet.

[Freezing Drizzle]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Raining at work in yonkers, once across the bridge it was a mix. Sleeting here in Nanuet.

[BxEngine]

12 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Raining at work in yonkers, once across the bridge it was a mix. Sleeting here in Nanuet.

Yea had a glaze on my car, still a mix bouncing off everything. 

[Brian5671]

rain just started here

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

There have been 68, 10 inch or greater snowstorms in NYC. The 10 day periods and how many occurred during each period are listed below. Quite a drop-off after Feb 18th.

No.	10 Day Period
1	Nov 21-30
1	Dec 1-10
5	Dec 11-20
7	Dec 21-30
3	Dec 31-Jan 9
3	Jan 10-Jan 19
11	Jan 20- Jan 29
10	Jan 30-Feb 8
12	Feb 9-Feb 18
4	Feb 19-Feb 28
4	Feb 29-Mar 10
4	Mar 11-Mar 20
1	Mar 21-Mar 30
1	Mar 31- Apr 9
1	Apr 10- Apr 19
68	Total

[MANDA]

4 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

Getting some good rain this morning; the snow pack remains strong in my area, but a few thinner areas have developed. 

Three day total here = .41".  Snow depth is dwindling.  With about 85% coverage I've got an average depth of 4".  South facing lawns and slopes showing good amount of bare ground.

[MJO812]

Another storm to watch next week and cold first week of March on gfs

[donsutherland1]

Any showers will depart early tomorrow. Highs will likely reach the lower and middle 40s afterward. 

Another storm will likely bring snow to the region Sunday into Monday. The potential exists for a major snowfall. At present, a 8"-12" snowfall appears likely in New York City and its nearby suburbs. Somewhat lesser amounts are likely north and west of New York City. A 12"-18" snowfall is possible across southern and central New Jersey and part of Long Island. Near blizzard and blizzard conditions are possible at the height of the storm late Sunday night into Monday morning. This is a dynamic event and large revisions may still be possible. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter.

The SOI was -2.11 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.386 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.8° (4.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0°, but the forecast development of an AO+ regime could lead to a sufficiently mild outcome to result in a winter mean temperature that exceeds freezing. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.