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February 2026 OBS & Discussion


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26 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

This winter, so far, has been a lot colder than 20-21. In fact, there's even a possibility that DJF could end up being the coldest on since 93-94. Maybe even, 76-77!

If you want to rate a winter - maybe start with the number of days that the temperature stayed 32 degrees or below - and also 20 degrees and below - I would assume Don has those stats available - I guess you can add days that did not reach 40 also...... using NYC records

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10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

If you want to rate a winter - maybe start with the number of days that the temperature stayed 32 degrees or below - and also 20 degrees and below - I would assume Don has those stats available - I guess you can add days that did not reach 40 also...... using NYC records

We are having a phenomenal winter in both of these departments!

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30 to 1 ratio! 

 

Light to occasionally moderate snow remains across the Twin
Forks of Long Island as a vort max continues to rotate through
the region as a negatively tilted upper trough moves slowly
eastward. This upper trough along with a low level trough from
offshore low pressure has combined to produce heavier snowfall
earlier in the day. And with the cold airmass in place snow
ratios have been running up to near 30 to 1, also contributing
to the high snowfall totals. Between 18Z and 19Z radar
reflectivities have been weakening. A Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect until 500 PM. CAMS and HRRR have been showing
light snow lingering into early this evening. With the strong
gusty winds and in areas with the higher snow totals, blowing
snow will be possible, quickly reducing visibilities.
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29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

If you want to rate a winter - maybe start with the number of days that the temperature stayed 32 degrees or below - and also 20 degrees and below - I would assume Don has those stats available - I guess you can add days that did not reach 40 also...... using NYC records

Here's how things stand:

image.png.f4e13d5c58e02df9c916693fb2391550.png

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23 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

30 to 1 ratio! 

 

Light to occasionally moderate snow remains across the Twin
Forks of Long Island as a vort max continues to rotate through
the region as a negatively tilted upper trough moves slowly
eastward. This upper trough along with a low level trough from
offshore low pressure has combined to produce heavier snowfall
earlier in the day. And with the cold airmass in place snow
ratios have been running up to near 30 to 1, also contributing
to the high snowfall totals. Between 18Z and 19Z radar
reflectivities have been weakening. A Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect until 500 PM. CAMS and HRRR have been showing
light snow lingering into early this evening. With the strong
gusty winds and in areas with the higher snow totals, blowing
snow will be possible, quickly reducing visibilities.

That webcam at the traffic circle in Montauk still looks like it did 8 hours ago.  Unreal!  And to look at the radar (barely green on the radar view Upton uses) you wouldn't think they were getting much at all.

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Just now, coastalplainsnowman said:

That webcam at the traffic circle in Montauk still looks like it did 8 hours ago.  Unreal!  And to look at the radar (barely green on the radar view Upton uses) you wouldn't think they were getting much at all.

Report of 7.3” in Montauk. 

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37 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

I would say A for cold definitely. For snow, meh. 2014, 2015, 2018, 2021 all had more. If we don't snow anymore rest of season, we're still below average. I doubt that would be the case but for me it's all about snowfall. If it's not going to snow, I'll take deep cold so at least it feels like winter. But ideally, 2021 was a great season. No crazy cold, but consistently snowy. That's the perfect winter 

Yes, but the snow is sticking around.  Obvously we would like MORE...

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15 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Yes, but the snow is sticking around.  Obvously we would like MORE...

coming around to the idea this might be it...still not bad, but i keep reading negative stuff here. am looking at beginning the process of retiring some of the winter gear. big snow blower finally thawed out and is working again, but one wheel is shaky. needs service but if i do it this year it won't be back til march. will wait til next year, got the two stage one should anything happen. don't think i'll need the pack boots again.

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Bitterly cold air now covers the New York City region. As of 5 pm, the temperature in Central Park was just 10°.

Tomorrow will likely be the coldest day this winter. The high temperature in New York City will be in the teens following a low in the middle to upper single digits. 

Monday will start very cold, but the afternoon will be less harsh as readings climb into the lower and middle 20s. The temperature will approach or reach freezing on Tuesday.

The persistent and often severely cold pattern is poised to break near February 10th. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely through at least mid-February, even as milder readings return.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around January 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was -2.16 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.431 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.0° (4.9° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.7°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was also 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

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22 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It's a nowcast situation but it's the kind of system where pretty consistently you want to be in eastern New England/Boston area. If banding consolidates there it probably means lots of subsidence garbage here. 

HRRR was pretty good, at least for most of NJ, sadly.  Just 0.2" of snow here vs. 1/2-1" forecast, which is still a pretty minor bust, since the 1" assumed 15-20:1 ratios meaning only about 0.05" QPF and to be off by only that much shouldn't come as a surprise.  

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Currently 1.5 here with winds still gusting 25-35 mph.

Just too bad that s/w didn't rotate off the coast about 100 or so miles further south and start to go negative.  That surface low would have delivered the goods to this entire sub forum.  Another near miss of something really good!  So close.

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