February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[Wannabehippie]

Islip hit 32 degrees today at 3pm ET.

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Islip never got above 32

But it did hit 32. 

[Rjay]

9 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

But it did hit 32. 

Isn't it 32 or below?

[IrishRob17]

46 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

If anyone has season-to-date snowfall totals let me know as i'm thinking about doing another update this week for seasonal snowfall maps. 

-Thanks

38.5"

[jm1220]

48 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

If anyone has season-to-date snowfall totals let me know as i'm thinking about doing another update this week for seasonal snowfall maps. 

-Thanks

29.5" Huntington Station. 

[NyWxGuy]

24" in northern Queens. Over 21" in Central Park, but they under measured for the first few events earlier this year. CPK needs about 8" to go in order to reach average 

[North and West]

It's really a shame to waste 3 weeks of peak winter climo to drought. By the time the longwave suppression eases we'll be fighting climo norms.

c’mon, just enjoy the ride


.

[North and West]

But many of us don't live in NYC.
The normals in Orange County today are 35/15, on Feb 28 they are 41/20 a big difference from the UHI. Bring on a snowy February and March and let's stop talking about Spring on Feb 2. We're in the middle of a decent winter for the first time in four years, can't we just enjoy it.

.

[SnoSki14]

This little warmer reprieve will make the weekend cold sting that much harder. 

Have to see if models moderate it but could be the coldest weather of the season. 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

This very cold outbreak being shown on maps for Sunday-Monday has potential to deliver one of the coldest set of low max and min seen around the northeast in decades. The source of the cold air is northern Quebec and the trajectory never crosses the Great Lakes (Hudson Bay either, although it is now frozen over anyway). Lake Ontario has temperatures in the 32-37 F range and Lake Erie is frozen so early stages of the onset with some of the air mass encountering those lakes will not modify much. Strong winds will reduce the potential for all-time lows in rural areas but will increase the potential for urban settings because the urban heat island is reduced considerably in windy weather -- the chilled air has no time to absorb the city's heat and differentials from city to suburbs to rural outlying areas is often no greater than what elevation alone might produce, certainly a smaller amount of urban heating than the usual 10-15 F deg on cold, clear and still nights. 

I looked at the thickness parameters and could see how NYC might stay below 10 F all day and dip below 0 F at night, -3 F would be the coldest I could imagine NYC getting. After the exceptional -17F in Dec 1917 and -15 F in Feb 1934, the benchmark lowest values are -8 (Feb 1943) and since then, -2 (Feb 1961, Feb 1963, Jan 1977, Jan 1985, Jan 1994) ... the only subzero reading after 1994 is the -1 F from Feb 2016. (it was also -1 in Dec 1980 and in Jan 1968 and 1976. Since 2016 the lowest reading at NYC is 2F on Jan 31, 2019 (matched by Feb 2015).

It would be quite spectacular to get below zero at all, let alone coldest since 1943 (83 winters ago). The winter of 1942-43 had two very cold readings, the other one in Dec 1942 (-3 F).

There have not been any sub-10 daily max values since the 9F of Jan 21, 1985. It was 10F in Jan 1994. 

Sub-10 maxima are quite rare in general, especially since 1943. Besides 1985, the only cases of a sub-10 maximum at NYC are these: 

 2F _ Dec 30, 1917

 3F _ no cases exist

 4F _ Dec 30 1880 ... Feb 5, 1918

 5F _ no cases exist

 6F _ Jan 24, 1882 ... Dec 31 1917

 7F _ Jan 3, 1879, ... Dec 20 1884 ... Feb 5 1886 ... Feb 10 1899 ... Feb 17 1896

 8F _ Jan 12, 1886 ... Feb 8 1895 ... Dec 29 1917 ... Jan 13 1912 ,,, Feb 9 1934 ... Dec 20 1942 ... Feb 15 1943

 9F _ Dec 21, 1871 ... Feb 2, 1881 ... Feb 11, 12 1899 ... Jan 13 1914 ... Jan 21 1985

10F _ Mar 5, 1872 ... Feb 7, 1875 ... Dec 29 and 31 1880 ... Dec 23 1883 ... Jan 28 1888 ... Feb 24 1894 ,,, Feb 6 1895 ... Jan 1 and 2, 1918 ... Feb 17, 1958 ... Jan 19 1994

Since 1994, 13F Jan 6 2018 is lowest ... even such notable cold months as Jan 1977, Feb 1979 or 2015, and even Dec 1872 failed to set a 10 or lower max. Highs from Dec 24 to Dec 27 1872 were 13, 15, 12, 15 and there was an 18" snowfall on the 26th. 

Of course, the sub-10 F reading has to survive midnight highs at either end of the calendar day. The daylight hours of Jan 31, 1920 were probably sub-10F as well, for one example.     

Remarkably, the highest temperature from Feb 9 to 13 1899 was 11 F and that bitterly cold spell ended with the Blizzard of 1899 13th-14th. Dec 29 1917 to Jan 2 1918 never went higher than 10 F.  

Three dates before NYC began record keeping that almost certainly rivalled Dec 30 1917 would be Jan 23 1857, Jan 9 1859 and Feb 6 1855. One or more of those could have remained below zero all day had NYC been operating then.  

Newark had a high of -1 on January 10, 1859.

[eduggs]

21 minutes ago, North and West said:

c’mon, just enjoy the ride


.

Even a few 1" refreshers would have gone a long way during this period. This winter has clearly been better than the last several, but the two sleet events have tainted the vibe in NJ relative to areas east (NYC/LI) and north (LHV).

[Mo Snow]

Wild that we are under average for the year. 

In terms of impact, this winter has been way above average. The snow not has not melted for 2+ weeks so it feels like a heavy snow winter even though its statistically not (Especially so if you live in a city and have to park on the street)

Are there historical records for total snow depth added up daily over a winter? I wonder where this winter stands. 

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Even a few 1" refreshers would have gone a long way during this period. This winter has clearly been better than the last several, but the two sleet events have tainted the vibe in NJ relative to areas east (NYC/LI) and north (LHV).

The late Dec event ended up on the low end of expectations here despite no sleet and of course 1/25 there was plenty of sleet here too. Suppression sucks and the lack of real opportunity for snow going forward sucks too but we've at least capitalized on a good window during cold enough air and got the snow to stick around. The last three good for shit winters couldn't make that happen. Probably the best we can ask for until the perma-Nina, warm western tropical Pacific regime changes. Honestly today felt great outside for a change and I'll welcome a warm period if it won't snow. Maybe end of Feb or March will bring more snow chances. We know how March 2018 turned out-not expecting that again of course but maybe one or two decent snow events before the end. 

[NyWxGuy]

17 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Even a few 1" refreshers would have gone a long way during this period. This winter has clearly been better than the last several, but the two sleet events have tainted the vibe in NJ relative to areas east (NYC/LI) and north (LHV).

And the pattern regression once the warm-up comes around the 10th or 11th is quite remarkable. Last week it was looking like wall to wall cold during the month of February with some chances here and there for snow but now it’s going to be bone dry until the middle of the month. And at that point, the temperatures aren’t as cold as they have been and we might run into some temperature issues. And even if we stay relatively near average, the rest of the US will be torching similar to the late December through early January pattern. Overall, very bad trends this week.

[psv88]

36 today. Felt great 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, NyWxGuy said:

And the pattern regression once the warm-up comes around the 10th or 11th is quite remarkable. Last week it was looking like wall to wall cold during the month of February with some chances here and there for snow but now it’s going to be bone dry until the middle of the month. And at that point, the temperatures aren’t as cold as they have been and we might run into some temperature issues. And even if we stay relatively near average, the rest of the US will be torching similar to the late December through early January pattern. Overall, very bad trends this week.

During any Nina, eventually the late winter warmup arrives. We'll see if this new strat warming can make for a colder March like in 2018, but in any Nina here the clock is always ticking to get our snow in Dec or Jan. Last year we had a decent Feb SWFE, 2018 had the epic March. We'll see what happens. 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, Mo Snow said:

Wild that we are under average for the year. 

In terms of impact, this winter has been way above average. The snow not has not melted for 2+ weeks so it feels like a heavy snow winter even though its statistically not (Especially so if you live in a city and have to park on the street)

Are there historical records for total snow depth added up daily over a winter? I wonder where this winter stands. 

Through today, cumulative snow depth is 83” in NYC. That’s the highest since 2015-16.

[Stormlover74]

21 minutes ago, Mo Snow said:

Wild that we are under average for the year. 

In terms of impact, this winter has been way above average. The snow not has not melted for 2+ weeks so it feels like a heavy snow winter even though its statistically not (Especially so if you live in a city and have to park on the street)

Are there historical records for total snow depth added up daily over a winter? I wonder where this winter stands. 

For the entire winter yes but ytd average is around 14" with the halfway mark being February 5th

[psv88]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

If anyone has season-to-date snowfall totals let me know as i'm thinking about doing another update this week for seasonal snowfall maps. 

-Thanks

30.8”, Commack NY

[Wannabehippie]

24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

During any Nina, eventually the late winter warmup arrives. We'll see if this new strat warming can make for a colder March like in 2018, but in any Nina here the clock is always ticking to get our snow in Dec or Jan. Last year we had a decent Feb SWFE, 2018 had the epic March. We'll see what happens. 

Isn't La Nina just about gone?

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

If anyone has season-to-date snowfall totals let me know as i'm thinking about doing another update this week for seasonal snowfall maps. 

-Thanks

28.4"  north Smithtown NY

[eduggs]

The key aspect of this winter that has made it satisfying for me was the back to back ~3" events on Sat/Sun the 18th/19th and then the warning snow/ice the following weekend. That was a lot of weekend, daytime snow in a short period... so lots of winter recreation opportunities during falling snow. The Jan 25th event by itself with 7 hours of snow followed by 7 hours of mix would have left me wanting more. We wait for the entire year for just a few hours to enjoy being outside during a snowstorm. So when it doesn't deliver that experience, the disappointment of having to wait another year can be significant.

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through today, cumulative snow depth is 83” in NYC. That’s the highest since 2015-16.

That's an interesting stat and probably as good an indicator as any of how 'snowy' a winter will be remembered by the average Joe.

[psv88]

Snow depth starting to decrease more noticeably in the sun now. Probably down to 6-7” of concrete and less of a 12” storm look. The shady areas still have 9-10” but slowly the spring melt creeps towards us 

[Prue11]

Down to 17.6 seems like my area has been the cold zone on LI. The rest of the island seems to be low 20s