It's coming 1/31-2/1

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/27 12z GFS  ACY white out

 

Heads up... this map is MM, not inches of QPF.

25 mm = 1".

[SACRUS]

 

GGEM out to 72

v

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

50-75 miles further NW would do it.  Right where you want the GFS at this lead time!

Yup. Let's hope the euro an CMC show something similar 

[WeatherGeek2025]

CMC looks good so far!

[jm1220]

We don’t need much. I wouldn’t be discounting anything until probably Thu night. 

[Big Jims Videos]

I'll be in AC this weekend for the indoor midget auto races in Boardwalk Hall.  Bring it on. We've had 2 blizzards at this event since the early 2000s.  2022 was fun.  

 

 

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Heads up... this map is MM, not inches of QPF.

25 mm = 1".

Not sure why it switched from the atlantic view -

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Not sure why it switched from the atlantic view -

And considering there’s almost always a northernmost fluff band with these, this might be good on its own for warning snow into NYC. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

cmc will be out to sea

[Franklin0529]

5 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

I'll be in AC this weekend for the indoor midget auto races in Boardwalk Hall.  Bring it on. We've had 2 blizzards at this event since the early 2000s.  2022 was fun.  

 

 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

5 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

I'll be in AC this weekend for the indoor midget auto races in Boardwalk Hall.  Bring it on. We've had 2 blizzards at this event since the early 2000s.  2022 was fun.  

 

 

Expand  

Got family in Galloway an beach house In ocean City Maryland.  Keeping my options open for now 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

cmc will be out to sea

convective feedback issues-2 lows showing

[East of the Parkway]

5 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

I'll be in AC this weekend for the indoor midget auto races in Boardwalk Hall.  Bring it on. We've had 2 blizzards at this event since the early 2000s.  2022 was fun.  

 

 

I saw those guys at House of Indy

[NJwx85]

If you go back and look at the 00z run from 1/22 of the Euro which was a huge hit, the kicker was way up in Central Canada and it was much slower to occlude. 
 

All I will say is, that piece that becomes the kicker is currently over the NW Pacific Ocean, somewhere between Japan and the Aleutian Islands. I doubt the models have a good handle on it. It won’t even be on land (North America) until Friday.

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

cmc will be out to sea

Not quite.

[WeatherGeek2025]

edit: it's a decent hit

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

cmc will be out to sea

Close

[donsutherland1]

Common theme on the 12z cycle: The GFS and GGEM have brought the precipitation farther north and west. It's too soon to write off the storm for the NYC area and especially Long Island. Details still can't be resolved reliably this far out. 

[Mr. T.]

Last Miller A storm that I can remember that had connective feedback issues...oh boy. This could definitely go further west, but have to see how the heights and high link up. Interesting storm.

[SACRUS]

 

1/27 12z GGEM Total QPF

 

[Metasequoia]

For anyone doing PBPs that aren't seasoned at this, let's hold off on pronouncements until it's obvious how the model run is progressing. 

[Joe4alb]

UKIE not looking good. flatter and further east through 96hrs

[Joe4alb]

UKIE is a stevie wonder size whiff

 

[TJW014]

7 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/27 12z GGEM Total QPF

 

That's over a foot for coastal NJ and LI. Ratios will be high. Temps in the teens-low 20s

[North and West]

After the plow-ins I had to remove this weekend+, I’m ok with MMU having a moderate snowstorm.

Putting that out into the universe.


.

[GregRups21]

Probably want to be careful with expecting high ratios with a bombing costal. Could fracture the snow flakes


.

[Metasequoia]

From NE folk:

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

8 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

From NE folk:

That's a lot of leans to the left

[nycsnow]

Gefs were good but 6z was better

12z AIGFS Did trend better 

[Snowlover11]

13 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

From NE folk:

Lean left, left!