The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[Berlin1926]

WTTW?  Is this from another planet? LOL

[Aleksey]

Careful with the GFS....its been a really bad model lately....

GFS is too far east with the snow in NE GA. It’s the only model out of every model that far east. Will definitely be more west into GA. GFS is on its own with that thinking and it’s the most inaccurate model of the globals. The consistency of the Euro, CMC, RGEM, ICON I’d bet on before the GFS, but that’s just me. And I’m speaking solely from NE GA, Winder, about 25 miles west of Athens. I think 2-4” is very likely for us on these parts of the forum.


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[eyewall]

I could do without the Wake County screw zone in that run.

[Silver Meteor]

43 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The RRFS (Nams replacement) is looking better for a lot of us

Greenville, NC keeps flipping from 3" to 12+" from model to model and run to run. This needs to stop because I'm becoming bipolar. 

[Huriken]

4 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

WTTW?  Is this from another planet? LOL

The SREF might be my favorite model now

[acc fan]

1 minute ago, Silver Meteor said:

Greenville, NC keeps flipping from 3" to 12+" from model to model and run to run. This needs to stop because I'm becoming bipolar. 

Greenville Rocky mount and Roanoke rapids usually do well in this setup 

[DTP]

18 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

Every pulling for trends that contradict one another for their backyard..

 

That's the nature of snow in the south

And unfortunately this is somewhat of a zero-sum game given the wide range of geography in this subforum

Hope everyone gets something....nice to see some flakes (kid in me), but tbh this kinda f's up my program development-wise bc of construction delays.....can't rough grade for survey pins, or prep for a slab pour/underslab plumbing (or pour the slab) with snow on the ground, or the subsequent mud after it melts.....plus pushes sub crews out with the backlog.....I would gladly donate whatever we get around CLT to some of the Raleigh/Southside VA peeps- it can snow all it wants to after I get the slabs down and 3 full afternoons above 70F into the cure lol

[wncsnow]

Canadian looks like the RGEM cut totals for many and shifted south like the Euro

[Buddy1987]

23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Consistently north. Kinda confusing as to why 

SREF always has had a tendency to be over amped.

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Canadian looks like the RGEM cut totals for many and shifted south like the Euro

We toss

[AJF0602]

20 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS is an epic storm for Jacksonville

Im getting super excited here in Jacksonville haha

[GaWx]

32 minutes ago, wake4est said:

I’m not saying I’m buying the gfs since it’s a poor model and has tended to overdo qpf and snow, but fwiw this shows FAY with one of their biggest snows on record with 12-15” in the area! Wow, that would be crippling.

 Also, in case this were to somehow verify closely: when was the last times the entire NC got 5”+ from one storm?

Not to be forgotten, this gives me ~0.3”, a rare event down here!

[Tony Sisk]

48 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

Georgia folks.  Time to wake up.  The westward trend is our friend.  I am going to hug the 6Z EURO into Sunday.

anyone else look as close up as you can to these maps and try to figure out how you can get another tenth of of inch of snow!!! It's kind of a hobby of mine.

Yep, I think my house is right on that line between 12.3" and 12.9".  I'm going with 12.9!!

Then the next map comes out and it's says 1.5".  You go into cliff dive...noooooo

Then the next map is saying 5.8" and 6.9".  We back baby....we going with 6.9"!!!

It's a rollercoaster.  I might be bi-polar as well.

[eyewall]

I am starting to have a bad feeling this could be another 1-3 snoozer in Raleigh but we shall see how it plays out. I don't like this feeling right now.

[ADB83]

Lower outputs today. Objectively for most. If you’re far enough west and south or far enough east you’re probably feeling good. Everyone else is rightfully nervous. I also don’t have a good feeling at the moment


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[PeeDeeWx]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am starting to have a bad feeling this could be another 1-3 snoozer in Raleigh but we shall see how it plays out. I don't like this feeling right now.

3" of snow in the S is a snoozer? Interesting.

[sakau2007]

i'm pretty bummed to have 2 weeks+ of below, and in some cases way below average temps and still likely come away with zero snow... or damn close to zero.

[sakau2007]

Just now, PeeDeeWx said:

3" of snow in the S is a snoozer? Interesting.

3" of snow in my backyard would rank in the top 5 of events over the last 30 years. 

hard for me to take people seriously when they claim raleigh gets a snow shield if they have that kinda attitude!

[gman]

When does the HRRR come out?

[franklin NCwx]

2 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said:

3" of snow in the S is a snoozer? Interesting.

It is if you live in the mtns

[olafminesaw]

GEFS has the jackpot pretty much right over Wake county, so there's that (.7-.8 liquid)

[Silver Meteor]

32 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS is an epic storm for Jacksonville

GFS also shows an all time record snowfall for the Cape Fear area. 

[UpstateSCBud]

It’s been a while since we’ve tracked a snowstorm like this, but it seems to be following so many of the “rules” I remember. Never want to be in the bullseye 3+days out. Always a west trend. Euro catches on first and GFS caves to it a couple days out. 
 

Obviously still a lot to iron out as far as totals, but folks in eastern NC definitely have every reason to be concerned given the trends. 

[wake4est]

This is a Miller A, not a Miller B.

[KrummWx]

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

GEFS has the jackpot pretty much right over Wake county, so there's that (.7-.8 liquid)

Lolz. Either dry slot from hell and 2" or the jackpot, who knows?

[sakau2007]

1 minute ago, UpstateSCBud said:

It’s been a while since we’ve tracked a snowstorm like this, but it seems to be following so many of the “rules” I remember. Never want to be in the bullseye 3+days out. Always a west trend. Euro catches on first and GFS caves to it a couple days out. 
 

Obviously still a lot to iron out as far as totals, but folks in eastern NC definitely have every reason to be concerned given the trends. 

i know you are only being half serious, but i'd be leary of assuming the trends that "always" happen will happen again.

last year i was pretty pumped to see the 10"+ totals models were spitting out in new orleans, mobile, the florida panhandle and south georgia. i "knew" that the models would trend north and might get me close to the bullseye. i wound up with zero snow while the gulf coast got dumped on as the models called for many days.

[CaryWx]

2 minutes ago, KrummWx said:

Lolz. Either dry slot from hell and 2" or the jackpot, who knows?

Are we sure the ensembles aren't just smoothing things out?  As we get closer to the event they become less relevant I would think.

[SnowDawg]

Hard to tell at this point what are trends and what are just windshield wiper wobbles. GFS jumped back up but we lost the Candian/RGEM. Gonna be an interesting 24-48 hours.

[wxdawg10]

8 minutes ago, wake4est said:

This is a Miller A, not a Miller B.

This is a Miller "who?" because no one knows anything

[olafminesaw]

We are 36-48 hours from the start and the UKMet has half an inch for Raleigh and the GEFS has double digit snowfall. Go figure