February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's not that complicated.  We need two things, a more amplified system and a slightly colder thermal profile.  Both minor adjustments from what is the consensus.  And...both kind of can be related to the same adjustment...a perfect track more amplified wave would also dynamically cool the thermal profile some!  So in one way ONE adjustment would work.  The random snow runs showing up from run to run across guidance aren't crazy different from all the non snow guidance...they just have a slightly more amplified wave and slightly colder temps.  

The UK was not that bad because it was damn close WRT amplitude compared to its last 2 runs which were WAY south.  This one just missed us...slightly more amplified and it was a snowstorm for our area!  That isn't wishcasting...that is what the model showed...it was close...and being close at 100 hours is good enough for me, it keeps us in the game.  I admitted it’s a long shot but there is a difference between that and close the thread it’s over, next.  

My “next” was more in jest…probably shouldn’t have said that bc I’ll obviously track for another day or so, but it’s not an ideal airmass for mid Feb (for snow…ideal for a break from arctic temps though). This system almost appears cutoff as it moves east…kind of a weird look upstairs…so I don’t know what to make of it other than I would think we would need rates.

[87storms]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Order some micro spikes from Amazon. I put 62 miles on mine. All on the glacier. It was awesome. I know lots of cool spots if you want to meet up. I like to get up high as high in elevation as possible. I hike up to the peaks. Trail or not.

So you didn’t have to stomp while walking the whole time? lol. If not I might have to take a look into those.

[dailylurker]

4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

So you didn’t have to stomp while walking the whole time? lol. If not I might have to take a look into those.

Not at all lol. I felt like Spiderman with super human powers running up hills covered is shiny solid ice. I actually had to take my neighbors trashcans to the street because know one could go outside except glasher man! 

[Weather Will]

EURO AI remains weak sauce and south.

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, Nomz said:

Looks like our last shot for snow this season 

Why is it our last shot.  It's Feb 11th. Can u see the next 45 days??  Or are u just bittercasting!!

[Duca892]

Yea i am pretty sure you chalk that EURO 0z run up to a blip on the radar. Nothing has trended towards that kind of snowstorm and models like the GFS remain steady on rain/suppression. 

[Weather Will]

EURO is south/weak.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Weather Will said:

EURO is south/weak.

Euro AI just continues to slap around every model out there.  It's insane.  They can just turn all the other ones for medium range lol. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Euro AI just continues to slap around every model out there.  It's insane.  They can just turn all the other ones for medium range lol. 

I pretty much stopped paying attention to the other models 

[Weather Will]

7 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Euro AI just continues to slap around every model out there.  It's insane.  They can just turn all the other ones for medium range lol. 

Agree that once inside 5 days EURO AI is hard to bet against, especially when its global is in agreement. 

[Weather Will]

Putting things in perspective, 12Z GEFS has three members out of 30 bringing snow this weekend- 10% chance.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Agree that once inside 5 days EURO AI is hard to bet against, especially when its global is in agreement. 

From now on I'm going to be looking for a situation in which any other model leads the way.  Cause in the last few events it's not even close.  Whatever this thing has they slowly trend to it.  If I can't find an example I'm going to just look at this model for the medium range.  Of course when we get close to an event we'll need the higher resolution models and from afar the ensembles, but 3 ish -7 days it's all Euro AI.  

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Alfoman said:

It's February 11th

The melancholy afflicted always have  to play their despondent hand 

[WEATHER53]

57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I glance at stuff in the long range but I've stopped tracking daily specific threats until they are inside day 5-6 and it's improved my mental health!  Jan 2016 I was exhausted by the time it snowed...tracking every run for 10 days...worried it was going to rug pull...I would have enjoyed that much more had I not done that.  And that was our last huge WIN and I didn't even enjoy it as much as I should have because of the anxiety of tracking it so long.  

This is a big admission that a number should heed.  Even 5 days out waffles all over the place but the 10+ day stuff is absolute chicanery 

[paulythegun]

There was a massive sewage spill about a month ago just NW of DC. One of the largest (unintentional) spills in U.S. history. But right now, all of that sewage is sitting frozen (or under ice) in the canal area. An amped system would finally flush it out into our waterways where it will settle and create algae blooms along with an enormous stench throughout the spring and summer. Lets get this sewage moving. Amp this thing up! Unleash the sewage blob!

[midatlanticweather]

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, paulythegun said:

There was a massive sewage spill about a month ago just NW of DC. One of the largest (unintentional) spills in U.S. history. But right now, all of that sewage is sitting frozen (or under ice) in the canal area. An amped system would finally flush it out into our waterways where it will settle and create algae blooms along with an enormous stench throughout the spring and summer. Lets get this sewage moving. Amp this thing up! Unleash the sewage blob!

Is this a political statement?

 

[ravensrule]

8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Is this a political statement?

 

I think his toilet is stuffed up. 

[87storms]

41 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Why is it our last shot.  It's Feb 11th. Can u see the next 45 days??  Or are u just bittercasting!!

Definitely not the last shot by seasonal perspective, but I find March to be truly overrated in the snow dept. Really can’t rely on that around here. But it is kinda weird how we don’t get much snow it seems in late February…it’s kinda like our late December void.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

Definitely not the last shot by seasonal perspective, but I find March to be truly overrated in the snow dept. Really can’t rely on that around here. But it is kinda weird how we don’t get much snow it seems in late February…it’s kinda like our late December void.

Don't get me started, lol Historically it's always been that way! Very few warning snowfalls during those weeks. No scientific reason for it...it just never works out. Even 2010 had a fail that last week of Feb, and then that which shall not be named happened the last week of Dec! Again, nothing scientific...but it's like sports when a team just never plays well in a certain stadium or park, lol

[Terpeast]

25 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Definitely not the last shot by seasonal perspective, but I find March to be truly overrated in the snow dept. Really can’t rely on that around here. But it is kinda weird how we don’t get much snow it seems in late February…it’s kinda like our late December void.

It hasn't snowed at all in March since I moved back here in 2022. Ok maybe some snow TV but no accums at all.

[Paleocene]

33 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Definitely not the last shot by seasonal perspective, but I find March to be truly overrated in the snow dept. Really can’t rely on that around here. But it is kinda weird how we don’t get much snow it seems in late February…it’s kinda like our late December void.

PSU's sensors are about to go off. Did you know we get 98.985% of our seasonal snowfall in March?

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Putting things in perspective, 12Z GEFS has three members out of 30 bringing snow this weekend- 10% chance.

Putting things into a GFS perspective

[WesternFringe]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Agree hard with this. The storm is as far out as the Jan 25th storm was when it was showing a flush hit of 2+ feet of snow! Things can still change majorly, who knows this might evolve into a cutter to Chicago or a storm which doesn't even get precip into VA.  

Uccellini said he would rather be Charlotte for this storm.

[87storms]

24 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

PSU's sensors are about to go off. Did you know we get 98.985% of our seasonal snowfall in March?

Drip drip 

[Mikeymac5306]

 

[peribonca]

41 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Uccellini said he would rather be Charlotte for this storm.

Think he meant Charlottetown.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

This is a big admission that a number should heed.  Even 5 days out waffles all over the place but the 10+ day stuff is absolute chicanery 

I think it's simply a misunderstanding and always has been.  I always knew that anything you look at 10-15 days away is very volatile, likely to change some, and details are impossible to glean.  But knowing something and behaving accordingly are two different things!  When there was nothing to look at within 5 days I would often waste too much time wanting something at day 10 to mean more than it does.  Now... I do something else.  Invest my time more wisely.  

However, I do still think there is value in long range forecasting.  Look at this PD threat.  It's not likely to end up snow BUT its close and the idea of this possible storm was hinted at from day 15 on.  Thats valuable.  We saw this general setup if you knew how to look at the data and analyze what it was hinting at.  The specifics that will determine whether we actually get snow...the EXACT track of the storm and exactly how cold it is...won't be known until its closer...even now it's unknown...but the general setup was picked out way in advance.  We saw the snow/ice storm we got Jan 25 from 2 weeks out...the general threat of it anyways.  The details weren't known until later.  So it depends what your expectations are.  IF you expect to see details (like being able to make a specific forecast and saying we're going to get 6" of snow) from 10-15 days away then no...its not useful at all for that.  But can the long range guidance suggest possible storm threats from that range yes...as long as it's understood it's just a general threat window not a specific forecast.  

[stormy]

East of the mountains can be another world regarding snowfall.   I well understand that fact.

Here in the Valley, some of our greatest snowstorms have been in March.   March of 1960 produced 26 inches.    March of 1962 dumped 38 inches.    March of 1993 produced 19 inches.

[HighStakes]

56 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't get me started, lol Historically it's always been that way! Very, very few snowfalls of any kind those two weeks. No scientific reason for it...it just never works out. Even 2010 had a fail that last week of Feb, and then that which shall not be named happened the last week of Dec! Again, nothing scientific...but it's like sports when a team just never plays well in a certain stadium or park, lol

You are constantly harping on this. Sure, the overwhelming majority of MECS and HECS have occurred before Feb 20th but to say there been little in the way of any snow during the last 1/3 of February is simply not true. Your own words are "very, very few snowfalls of any kind those two weeks". You couldn't be more wrong and I'm not trying to be nasty. Please provide data or do some research before making such a bold statement. I'm only calling you out on this because you make reference to it quite often. Just take the last 40 years. 1986,1987,1993,2003,2005,2007,2014,2015,2021 all saw events and some of those years were quite snowy periods. There were many years with close misses that still yielded some snow for certain parts of the region or had significant storms the first few day of March such as 1984,1994,1996,1999,2009,2011,2017 and 2019. My set of years are based from Feb 20th through March 1st. If you include the full last 2 week of February like you did in your post then your position worsens greatly. 2013 got a little snowy for NW and of course the epic fail the first week in March. This isn't even including countless C-2/3 inch events not even worth mentioning.