dailylurker Posted Wednesday at 12:17 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:17 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: No, it will be frustrating as hell, filled with whining, and we'll be at each other's throats by the time it's over. That's typical, not interesting. Naaaa.. it will disappear today lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted Wednesday at 12:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:19 PM 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I’m in for the PD threat and if that window doesn’t pan out I say let’s pop a massive SE ridge and hit 65 everyday in March. I’d take that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted Wednesday at 12:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:21 PM 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: No, it will be frustrating as hell, filled with whining, and we'll be at each other's throats by the time it's over. That's typical, not interesting. Well, I find it always interesting to watch how things unfold. That’s gonna vary from person to person LOL. Whatever ultimately happens, I am in for the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 12:26 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:26 PM 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: No, it will be frustrating as hell, filled with whining, and we'll be at each other's throats by the time it's over. That's typical, not interesting. Yep. Facilitated by those who race to be the first to post op run snow maps at range, then if the next run or 2 don't have it the posts become its a dud or a disaster. Gets the weenie pendulum swinging. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted Wednesday at 12:29 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:29 PM Just now, CAPE said: Yep. Facilitated by those who race to be the first to post op run snow maps at range, then if the next run or 2 don't have it the posts become its a dud or a disaster. Gets the weenie pendulum swinging. We already had that within 30 minutes this morning. GFS gives us PDIII. Euro AI is a dud. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 12:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:35 PM 1 minute ago, anotherman said: We already had that within 30 minutes this morning. GFS gives us PDIII. Euro AI is a dud. Then Will says we should be using the ensembles more lol. Uh, yeah been saying and doing it forever lol. Only post I made this morning was 'big picture' ens mean. Good to see Will post that though. Reborn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted Wednesday at 12:40 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:40 PM If only the GFS had a single clue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted Wednesday at 12:42 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:42 PM 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yep. Facilitated by those who race to be the first to post op run snow maps at range, then if the next run or 2 don't have it the posts become its a dud or a disaster. Gets the weenie pendulum swinging. It takes humility to say a lot don’t know how to read models properly (I’ll say myself included LOL), that’s why I try to read more than I post. Mainly post for reacting to developments. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Wednesday at 12:44 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:44 PM 38 minutes ago, Weather Will said: It is fun to look at the globals in fantasy range but reality is we need to just look at trends in the ensembles. Biggest take is that next weekend still has potential. Yes, "next weekend still has potential" though the father AI has lost interest. EPS, GEFS and GEPS are all interested.................. GFS Op will last about 4 more hrs.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted Wednesday at 12:50 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:50 PM 10 minutes ago, anotherman said: If only the GFS had a single clue.... No model has a clue that far out. Honestly at this point the GFS shouldn't run past hr 84. You all are looking in the 200's. Its essentially fiction. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Wednesday at 12:56 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:56 PM We doing the GFS blizzard vs Euro dud thing again? Do we ever learn? 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 01:06 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:06 PM WB 6Z AI EPS still showing potential next weekend. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Wednesday at 01:09 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:09 PM 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z AI EPS still showing potential next weekend. That looks pretty good, not TOO skewed to the interior so is coastal plain folks are in the game still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 01:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:11 PM 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z AI EPS still showing potential next weekend. That's pretty bullish considering it's +10 days out and has Richmond and Salisbury at 2.5"+ without a southern bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Wednesday at 01:42 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:42 PM 25 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z AI EPS still showing potential next weekend. IMO, this model has no credibility anymore, because of occasional unpredictable occurrence of highly inflated totals. It gave me 12" for 3.5" on December 8 a few days ahead of event. Jan. 20, it gave me 16.5" for 6" on Jan. 25. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Wednesday at 01:47 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:47 PM 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: No, it will be frustrating as hell, filled with whining, and we'll be at each other's throats by the time it's over. That's typical, not interesting. I love when things are at people’s throats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 01:50 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:50 PM 5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You misrepresent things quite often. I get excited about weather, and let some of that excitement come through on the board, hoping to be like a bright light sometimes. I have been very optimistic on this Winter, from the start. I think there was one period in December where the pattern was bad but I predicted the 11" snowstorm well in advance.. remember you were even asking me, if not la nina and el nino then when, and I responded that although nothing was currently showing on models, we will probably be at average snowfall after the next few weeks, this la nina was/is not a "dead pattern".. and here we are. Besides that, it's unbelievable and childish that everything is about someone's bias.. so many extraverts on this board communicate like that. like you can only think in blacks and whites. Nevermind that there is actually a weather forecast being made. I should not get a "doom and gloom" bias from being down on snow over the last several Winters. We have been below average and like 90% of the storms I get right! If model shows snow 5-7 days out, I say too warm or rain, and it rains, that's not a bias! I agree that next Winter is not a definite good year, this Winters ridge in the Rockies and West coast is concerning to me. When we get a warm pattern some future Winter, it could torch. That's not a "doom and gloom bias", Im discussing the science of the situation. Patterns in the west lead us by time, sometimes years. History also says that this Winters pattern of cold NE/warm SW is likely to continue through March, and even Apr-Aug to some extent. I just made a post in ENSO thread about it. We may still have some opportunities this Winter. It’s called a joke Chuck. People respect your opinions. The reason you are “doom and gloom” is you’re usually right and the truth of where we live is usually it’s not going to snow. Even more so the last 9 years! I do hope we don’t waste our chance at a snowy winter. We need 1-2 more decent snow events this year to feel like we really took advantage of what’s been a rare -AO winter. If things ended now most would end up below avg snowfall which is a shame given the potential. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Wednesday at 01:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:53 PM 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: No, it will be frustrating as hell, filled with whining, and we'll be at each other's throats by the time it's over. That's typical, not interesting. Get me out of eeyore mode man. I hate being here in the basement with the likes of rev reenact dude It’s sucks. I’m trying to climb out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:11 PM 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Get me out of eeyore mode man. I hate being here in the basement with the likes of rev reenact dude It’s sucks. I’m trying to climb out. The Latest Ensemble runs look good for mid month. I posted the GEFS earlier. Here is the Canadian- 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 02:12 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:12 PM 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Get me out of eeyore mode man. I hate being here in the basement with the likes of rev reenact dude It’s sucks. I’m trying to climb out. We didn’t strike out. We did get one really good storm. But one of these years we need to actually get lucky and max out one of these good patterns with potential. We’re way way way past due. Maybe it does happen this year still. We have this shot around PD and I suspect we get another shot sometime after also. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted Wednesday at 02:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:19 PM 25 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Get me out of eeyore mode man. I hate being here in the basement with the likes of rev reenact dude It’s sucks. I’m trying to climb out. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Wednesday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:35 PM IMO, this model has no credibility anymore, because of occasional unpredictable occurrence of highly inflated totals. It gave me 12" for 3.5" on December 8 a few days ahead of event. Jan. 20, it gave me 16.5" for 6" on Jan. 25.It’s an ensemble mean, doesn’t guarantee anything, but the fact that it has that high of a mean signals an increased winter storm chance around 14-15th range 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted Wednesday at 02:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:53 PM 17 minutes ago, Heisy said: It’s an ensemble mean, doesn’t guarantee anything, but the fact that it has that high of a mean signals an increased winter storm chance around 14-15th range Don't even try this dude would rather never see snow again before he admits the euro is the best model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Wednesday at 03:03 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:03 PM 50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We didn’t strike out. We did get one really good storm. But one of these years we need to actually get lucky and max out one of these good patterns with potential. We’re way way way past due. Maybe it does happen this year still. We have this shot around PD and I suspect we get another shot sometime after also. how much did you get in the Jan 25 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Wednesday at 03:41 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:41 PM JB is on storm watch for our PD3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Wednesday at 03:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:43 PM 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The Latest Ensemble runs look good for mid month. I posted the GEFS earlier. Here is the Canadian- Warms the heart. Positive vibes simmering 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Wednesday at 03:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:49 PM 7 minutes ago, IronTy said: JB is on storm watch for our PD3. He’s been vigilant for PD3 for 23 years now 13 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 04:20 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:20 PM 1 hour ago, Ji said: how much did you get in the Jan 25 storm? ~10" if you include the sleet but the depth ended up around 8 after compaction. I know technically that gets recorded as 10" but it feels cheap since the depth never got above around 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Wednesday at 04:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:21 PM He’s been vigilant for PD3 for 23 years now Lol. And the 1993 superstorm since 1994 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Wednesday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:22 PM ~10" if you include the sleet but the depth ended up around 8 after compaction. I know technically that gets recorded as 10" but it feels cheap since the depth never got above around 8. Wow I would of thought you got a lot more snow before changeoverHow did we pull of 2 inches of qpf at 15 degrees and not get a hecs lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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