Jebman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Its going to be so ice age frigid in Texas into Feb 23 that I need an entire new wardrobe. Maybe the AMOC stopped altogether. I have officially given up all hope of Spring in the Deep South in 2026. It's been repealed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 GFS continues to advertise at least something. Clipper, miller B? Idk I’m stupid as shit. Around the 7th-9th period 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 When is the met community as a whole going to care more about the Euro Ai vs the OP. This next event is another case study for it. Euro has been bouncing around run after run. It’s finally starting to get consistent, meanwhile euro AI has basically locked in as it usually does in this range outside minor ticks. It’s verifying better at H5, only caveat is its resolution gives it issues with QPF so you have to factor it in.Anyways, euro Ai has a nor’easter for the 6thThe 00z OP run had snow down intoThe southern mid Atlantic for this one. End of 6z Op looks like it was about to brew something up.This one could have BL temp issues, need to get the low out of the lakes, but we’ll see… 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 28 minutes ago, Heisy said: When is the met community as a whole going to care more about the Euro Ai vs the OP. This next event is another case study for it. Euro has been bouncing around run after run. It’s finally starting to get consistent, meanwhile euro AI has basically locked in as it usually does in this range outside minor ticks. It’s verifying better at H5, only caveat is its resolution gives it issues with QPF so you have to factor it in. Anyways, euro Ai has a nor’easter for the 6th The 00z OP run had snow down into The southern mid Atlantic for this one. End of 6z Op looks like it was about to brew something up. This one could have BL temp issues, need to get the low out of the lakes, but we’ll see… I’ve had my eye on the feb 4-5 system. Again the trof is pos tilted, but it might have enough moisture upfront moving w to e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I’ve had my eye on the feb 4-5 system. Again the trof is pos tilted, but it might have enough moisture upfront moving w to e 20 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Next chance seems like a weak wave around Thursday next week? It’s actually been fairly consistent on guidance. Sort of just looks like a cold front passage but antecedent airmass is cold enough to be snow for us potentially. If we’re claiming storms, I claim next week! We can call it the “WxUSAF shitty frontal passage”? 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Everybody here is claiming snow storms. So I’m going to go very long range and claim an 80 degree day sometime in the week after Easter. We’ll have to torch eventually and what better time than early April? We’ll have earned it by then. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If we’re claiming storms, I claim next week! We can call it the “WxUSAF shitty frontal passage”? It's yours. Are you gonna deliver? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 18 minutes ago, Terpeast said: It's yours. Are you gonna deliver? Probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 It looks like a front for the 4th/5th now but tbh it is going deeper and deeper on the Euro AI, its ensembles, and the Euro’s deterministic ensembles. The spoilers to me are the ridge being too far east (again) and a possible lakes low. Given how noisy the NS has been I think the latter is movable in both a good and bad direction. The ridge feels like it will be more stubborn. But I think there’s upside here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 hours ago, stormtracker said: lol, Euro tries the EXACT same thing Next Saturday as it's doing for this Saturday. Can't make this shit up. Same result But the whole seasonal trend thing is bullshit according to many. This has been a decadal trend at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I have no optimism regarding the next ten days. By the time the next system it’s gonna be warm. Prove me wrong. Just bitter af over here. 4 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I have no optimism regarding the next ten days. By the time the next system it’s gonna be warm. Prove me wrong. Just bitter af over here. Strange...I've never known you to be like this Randy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I have no optimism regarding the next ten days. By the time the next system it’s gonna be warm. Prove me wrong. Just bitter af over here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I have no optimism regarding the next ten days. By the time the next system it’s gonna be warm. Prove me wrong. Just bitter af over here. I think it’s gonna be cold and the long wave pattern is good and it’s our prime climo. Hopefully stuff pops up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMAC98 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Both the regular and AIFS EPS look mildly intriguing for Super Bowl weekend. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, DMAC98 said: Both the regular and AIFS EPS look mildly intriguing for Super Bowl weekend. Has some upside potential to that. 6z AI was 3"+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 23 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I have no optimism regarding the next ten days. By the time the next system it’s gonna be warm. Prove me wrong. Just bitter af over here. Hang in there! We’re gonna score! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 22 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I have no optimism regarding the next ten days. By the time the next system it’s gonna be warm. Prove me wrong. Just bitter af over here. normally i'd agree with you but this winter is built different. the atmosphere remembered how to be cold. as PSU always says, just gotta time the cold with a wave right... (not shown: matching CPC chart which shows below normal precip ) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Paleocene said: normally i'd agree with you but this winter is built different. the atmosphere remembered how to be cold. as PSU always says, just gotta time the cold with a wave right... Looks like the woodstove is gonna keep on chugging. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 This is a good winter. Most of us are already at average yearly snowfall or above. We are just wasting the chance of it to be a historic winter. But its a Nina, so..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 11 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Most of us are already at average yearly snowfall or above What? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I’m getting very interested in the pattern next week. Ensembles are intriguing. Seems like a potentially more normal way of getting snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, 87storms said: I’m getting very interested in the pattern next week. Ensembles are intriguing. Seems like a potentially more normal way of getting snow. There is no normal way to get snow here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Nomz said: There is no normal way to get snow here There’s no “easy” way, but having a gulf that’s available for overrunning is the “best” way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 hours ago, Terpeast said: I’ve had my eye on the feb 4-5 system. Again the trof is pos tilted, but it might have enough moisture upfront moving w to e I'm worried about the thermal conditions we'll see if the storm exists. The 6z Euro AI shows my worry pretty well when looking at the 850mb/wind chart It has the 850 low right over the great lakes and bringing in warm air from the Gulf. While we get some grace by our cold conditions leading in its not like we have a high to the north to save us. Just don't really know what the upside to this storm would be? The CMC H5 vort shows that maybe we could get a storm if we get the pass under us but otherwise I don't think a more negative trough would help us due to the thermal issues it would bring. Just not really enthused about the setup besides maybe a clipper like storm; but even that may just be a mix/rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 GFS showing a clipper? frontal passage? for the 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 We can still get a big storm in the Mid Atlantic; congrats Outer Banks! Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Northern Outer Banks- Including the cities of Plymouth, Manns Harbor, Manteo, East Lake, Gum Neck, Duck, Kill Devil Hills, Bath, Swanquarter, Roper, Kitty Hawk, Columbia, Aurora, Engelhard, Chocowinity, Stumpy Point, Belhaven, Ponzer, Washington, Creswell, Fairfield, Scranton, Southern Shores, and Nags Head 231 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 16 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 to 60 mph. * WHERE...A portion of eastern North Carolina. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Strong winds could cause tree damage. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Weather Will said: We ca still get a big storm in the Mid Atlantic; congrats Outer Banks! Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Northern Outer Banks- Including the cities of Plymouth, Manns Harbor, Manteo, East Lake, Gum Neck, Duck, Kill Devil Hills, Bath, Swanquarter, Roper, Kitty Hawk, Columbia, Aurora, Engelhard, Chocowinity, Stumpy Point, Belhaven, Ponzer, Washington, Creswell, Fairfield, Scranton, Southern Shores, and Nags Head 231 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 16 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 to 60 mph. * WHERE...A portion of eastern North Carolina. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Strong winds could cause tree damage. It should have been MEEEE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: We can still get a big storm in the Mid Atlantic; congrats Outer Banks! Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Northern Outer Banks- Including the cities of Plymouth, Manns Harbor, Manteo, East Lake, Gum Neck, Duck, Kill Devil Hills, Bath, Swanquarter, Roper, Kitty Hawk, Columbia, Aurora, Engelhard, Chocowinity, Stumpy Point, Belhaven, Ponzer, Washington, Creswell, Fairfield, Scranton, Southern Shores, and Nags Head 231 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 16 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 to 60 mph. * WHERE...A portion of eastern North Carolina. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Strong winds could cause tree damage. Heh, what a forecast for the Outer Banks. That's nuts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: We can still get a big storm in the Mid Atlantic; congrats Outer Banks! Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Northern Outer Banks- Including the cities of Plymouth, Manns Harbor, Manteo, East Lake, Gum Neck, Duck, Kill Devil Hills, Bath, Swanquarter, Roper, Kitty Hawk, Columbia, Aurora, Engelhard, Chocowinity, Stumpy Point, Belhaven, Ponzer, Washington, Creswell, Fairfield, Scranton, Southern Shores, and Nags Head 231 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 16 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 to 60 mph. * WHERE...A portion of eastern North Carolina. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Strong winds could cause tree damage. Chasing is tempting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now