Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[clskinsfan]

3K a touch warmer I think. 

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

12 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Deep breathing exercises right now. Missed a lot I’m guessing. Anyone got the cliff notes for the last 6 hours? 

Models being models, generally.  Most of us are trying to overlay our preferred solutions on top of inferential extrapolations by imperfect 3-D computerized calculations with known biases.  General consensus?  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

In other news, the drinking has begun.

[Buddy1987]

Looks like NAM finally catching onto the idea of a heavy qpf event. Some heavy returns over the TN Valley now HR 30. 

[RIC_WX]

31 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Topped out at 30F today at Deep Creek, dropped like a stone and now I'm down to 6F.  I have no idea how high the wind gusts are but they have to be 40mph here on top of the mountain.  It's been all day.   I have a few flakes blowing around but otherwise partly cloudy. 

4.7 / -2 Deep Creek

25 / 6 Leesburg

wind never fails on that mountain.  Enjoy 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

3K a touch warmer I think. 

it'll be showing rain by tomorrow! Nam sucks

[yoda]

Ripping snow across the region at 09z... but sleet line is moving rapidly northward.  EZF is pinging soon on 00z NAM 

[Eskimo Joe]

Federal government closed Monday, Jan. 26th.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Federal government closed Monday, Jan. 26th.

https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/

For those who want the link

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Ripping snow across the region at 09z... but sleet line is moving rapidly northward.  EZF is pinging soon on 00z NAM 

NAM with a better thump (for the metros), though. Like @Buddy1987 stated, it's probably due to the QPF increase.

(3/10)

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Ripping snow across the region at 09z... but sleet line is moving rapidly northward.  EZF is pinging soon on 00z NAM 

DCA and IAD barely snow at 12z... everybody else pinging

[Buddy1987]

Just now, bncho said:

NAM with a much better thump, though. Like @Buddy1987 stated, it's probably due to the QPF increase.

(3/10)

@Bob Chilland I may be having a good giggle if the NAM verifies verbatim at 36. The returns are something of a summer thunderstorm rolling thru with sleet. Outside would be insane.. 

[bncho]

3k NAM also with a better thump (in general). Snow maps coming shortly.

[nj2va]

Just now, yoda said:

DCA and IAD barely snow at 12z... everybody else pinging

15z on the 12k NAM at 700

[snowfan]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Federal government closed Monday, Jan. 26th.

Doesn't mean anything for most. Work continues regardless of the status. 

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, yoda said:

Rain in most of DE, S MD at 20z... rain not far away from DC metro tbh

This is as warm as it gets, and not much different from other guidance. Yes probably some plain rain for a few hours for extreme southeastern parts of the region.

[yoda]

Just now, nj2va said:

15z on the 12k NAM at 700

Its in between... 750-800 level

[SnowenOutThere]

NAM gives me under 2 inches of snow lmao. I love that the other guidance is holding but as we get further into the NAM's useful range we gotta see it start caving. 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Its in between... 750-800 level

This is near Mason Dixon line at 15z... sleety

 

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

NAM gives me under 2 inches of snow lmao. I love that the other guidance is holding but as we get further into the NAM's useful range we gotta see it start caving. 

Disregarding the nam in range has burned many in the past

[Scraff]

6 minutes ago, Snowciopathic Snow Bro said:

Models being models, generally.  Most of us are trying to overlay our preferred solutions on top of inferential extrapolations by imperfect 3-D computerized calculations with known biases.  General consensus?  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

In other news, the drinking has begun.

Thank you for the update. Heard. Much appreciated! Pretty much could assume the drinking had begun. That’s how we roll here! Ok back to weather! Just 1 more sleep until…

[Chris78]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

NAM gives me under 2 inches of snow lmao. I love that the other guidance is holding but as we get further into the NAM's useful range we gotta see it start caving. 

Nam has given warning shots for previous storms that no one took seriously.  Hopefully it's out to lunch but as we get closer in I'd be more concerned. Would like to see it cave here soon. Time is running out

 

[osfan24]

If the NAM beats the GFS on this, can we switch which one is being decommissioned?

[LP08]

3k a little thumpier than 18. Still not awesome but better

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

3k NAM also with a better thump (in general). Snow maps coming shortly.

(unless you're in the south)

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

(unless you're in the south)

That is not better for most of us.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Disregarding the nam in range has burned many in the past

I’ve been burned by this in the past.  Never can completely toss it when it’s the most aggressive changeover.  It has schooled the globals on this before.  

[nj2va]

Starting at 6z/12z tomorrow, its hard to completely discount the NAMs, especially the 3K thermals.

[Weather Will]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Federal government closed Monday, Jan. 26th.

Nowadays that means work from home or take leave.

[MN Transplant]

About 0.40” before the flip in DC (using 13z).  So, probably 4-5”.

[Chris78]

If the M/D is pinging by mid morning that would be a poor showing from the globals.