clskinsfan Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3K a touch warmer I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowciopathic Snow Bro Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12 minutes ago, Scraff said: Deep breathing exercises right now. Missed a lot I’m guessing. Anyone got the cliff notes for the last 6 hours? Models being models, generally. Most of us are trying to overlay our preferred solutions on top of inferential extrapolations by imperfect 3-D computerized calculations with known biases. General consensus? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ In other news, the drinking has begun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Looks like NAM finally catching onto the idea of a heavy qpf event. Some heavy returns over the TN Valley now HR 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 31 minutes ago, IronTy said: Topped out at 30F today at Deep Creek, dropped like a stone and now I'm down to 6F. I have no idea how high the wind gusts are but they have to be 40mph here on top of the mountain. It's been all day. I have a few flakes blowing around but otherwise partly cloudy. 4.7 / -2 Deep Creek 25 / 6 Leesburg wind never fails on that mountain. Enjoy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: 3K a touch warmer I think. it'll be showing rain by tomorrow! Nam sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Ripping snow across the region at 09z... but sleet line is moving rapidly northward. EZF is pinging soon on 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Federal government closed Monday, Jan. 26th. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Federal government closed Monday, Jan. 26th. https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/ For those who want the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Ripping snow across the region at 09z... but sleet line is moving rapidly northward. EZF is pinging soon on 00z NAM NAM with a better thump (for the metros), though. Like @Buddy1987 stated, it's probably due to the QPF increase. (3/10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Ripping snow across the region at 09z... but sleet line is moving rapidly northward. EZF is pinging soon on 00z NAM DCA and IAD barely snow at 12z... everybody else pinging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, bncho said: NAM with a much better thump, though. Like @Buddy1987 stated, it's probably due to the QPF increase. (3/10) @Bob Chilland I may be having a good giggle if the NAM verifies verbatim at 36. The returns are something of a summer thunderstorm rolling thru with sleet. Outside would be insane.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3k NAM also with a better thump (in general). Snow maps coming shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, yoda said: DCA and IAD barely snow at 12z... everybody else pinging 15z on the 12k NAM at 700 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Federal government closed Monday, Jan. 26th. Doesn't mean anything for most. Work continues regardless of the status. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 27 minutes ago, yoda said: Rain in most of DE, S MD at 20z... rain not far away from DC metro tbh This is as warm as it gets, and not much different from other guidance. Yes probably some plain rain for a few hours for extreme southeastern parts of the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, nj2va said: 15z on the 12k NAM at 700 Its in between... 750-800 level 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 NAM gives me under 2 inches of snow lmao. I love that the other guidance is holding but as we get further into the NAM's useful range we gotta see it start caving. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, yoda said: Its in between... 750-800 level This is near Mason Dixon line at 15z... sleety Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: NAM gives me under 2 inches of snow lmao. I love that the other guidance is holding but as we get further into the NAM's useful range we gotta see it start caving. Disregarding the nam in range has burned many in the past 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, Snowciopathic Snow Bro said: Models being models, generally. Most of us are trying to overlay our preferred solutions on top of inferential extrapolations by imperfect 3-D computerized calculations with known biases. General consensus? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ In other news, the drinking has begun. Thank you for the update. Heard. Much appreciated! Pretty much could assume the drinking had begun. That’s how we roll here! Ok back to weather! Just 1 more sleep until… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: NAM gives me under 2 inches of snow lmao. I love that the other guidance is holding but as we get further into the NAM's useful range we gotta see it start caving. Nam has given warning shots for previous storms that no one took seriously. Hopefully it's out to lunch but as we get closer in I'd be more concerned. Would like to see it cave here soon. Time is running out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 If the NAM beats the GFS on this, can we switch which one is being decommissioned? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3k a little thumpier than 18. Still not awesome but better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, bncho said: 3k NAM also with a better thump (in general). Snow maps coming shortly. (unless you're in the south) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, bncho said: (unless you're in the south) That is not better for most of us. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Disregarding the nam in range has burned many in the past I’ve been burned by this in the past. Never can completely toss it when it’s the most aggressive changeover. It has schooled the globals on this before. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Starting at 6z/12z tomorrow, its hard to completely discount the NAMs, especially the 3K thermals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Federal government closed Monday, Jan. 26th. Nowadays that means work from home or take leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 About 0.40” before the flip in DC (using 13z). So, probably 4-5”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 If the M/D is pinging by mid morning that would be a poor showing from the globals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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