Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[stormtracker]

Even an earlier start would help around here.  I mean, it's possible.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Even an earlier start would help around here.  I mean, it's possible.  

Based on some of the obs I dare say it's likely.

[87storms]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

15z 

 

 

18z

 

Still snowing there in Frederick at 18z. The Catoctin’s at 1500’ are gonna get rocked.

[mitchnick]

Geez....5 degrees at Big Meadows on Skyline Drive this time of day.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Hrrr continues to show very high ratio snowfall overnight.  I'll share the snowfall depth after the run finishes. 

[WEATHER53]

43 minutes ago, weatherCCB said:

If you look at the radar stormtracker posted.  Precip looks to be moving ESE.

 

I too noticed all day out west that very little latitude was gained 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Will this greatly improve the verification scores of the American models? Will the GFS be an actual model to consider once this new core is implemented?

         I'm not a huge fan of FV3, so I would hope so.   One big thing is that a fully-coupled GFS will be implemented later this year, which should be very helpful.   That means a lot of things, but it means that the atmosphere, water, land-surface, and sea ice will all "talk" to each other.

[Solution Man]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Even an earlier start would help around here.  I mean, it's possible.  

The way reports are looking I’d say 8pm for the immediate area. That’s for the weenies

[clskinsfan]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Even an earlier start would help around here.  I mean, it's possible.  

Guarantee I am going to get weenied like a mofo. But this is going to start WAY earlier than the models thought.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Guarantee I am going to get weenied like a mofo. But this is going to start WAY earlier than the models thought.

I mean actual obs aren't weenie worthy.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Hrrr continues to show very high ratio snowfall overnight.  I'll share the snowfall depth after the run finishes. 

Right before the changeover.

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Guarantee I am going to get weenied like a mofo. But this is going to start WAY earlier than the models thought.

DP of -5 is not good for that prediction 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

DP of -5 is not good for that prediction 

8 Hours of virga though? I find that highly unlikely.

[WEATHER53]

19 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If the GFS is right, there's DC 10.  8.5 snow 1.5 sleet

I went 10-15” all week and never wavered with the every 6 hour run. I think the despondent grouping will find that the high pressure set up we have is nearly  unprecedented 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

8 Hours of virga though? I find that highly unlikely.

@Bob Chill How much virga was over your yard before you saw your first flakes?

[weatherCCB]

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I too noticed all day out west that very little latitude was gained 

Yeah. Good sign . We want the precip shield to come in west to east. Might hold off transition time.  Sign HP is holding strong

 

[Terpeast]

[clskinsfan]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Nice. They bumped it up. NWS mets always ahead of us.

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Right before the changeover.

Damn.  That’s solid

[Terpeast]

18z 3k nam doesn’t start precip in dc metro till 6z. LWX has us starting at 3z

[mitchnick]

Rap new run

[Terpeast]

Recent hrrr tries to start us earlier, but has us fighting dry air and doesn’t get us going in earnest till 7z

[NorthArlington101]

The boom case is fairly easy, and each part kinda builds off itself... Wouldn't show this to a logistician but:

1. We start earlier
2. We have more QPF
   • Starting earlier helps
   • May also help us thump longer
3. Ratios are better than modeled
   • The earlier we start, ratios are better, seemingly
4. We flip later 

[MN Transplant]

HRRR continues to advertise a later flip than the NAM.  More like 15z/10am in DC.  Rates are always important, but it’ll kill us if we lose the column by 7am.

[Jersey Andrew]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Rap new run

That’s a massive snowfall for NYC and northern Nj. Does it account for sleet or fit the atmospheric conditions, storm path?

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Recent hrrr tries to start us earlier, but has us fighting dry air and doesn’t get us going in earnest till 7z

That is wild. Do you think we virga for 7 hours? Honest question. This is an airmass we arent used to here in the MA. But 7 hours?

[Hokiehop]

The first flakes have arrived in Ashland, Va.  I can't imagine that's a bad sign re: start time up here.

[WEATHER53]

11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Guarantee I am going to get weenied like a mofo. But this is going to start WAY earlier than the models thought.

This may be the first in several demonstrations of what this unique, cold  high can do 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Hokiehop said:

The first flakes have arrived in Ashland, Va.  I can't imagine that's a bad sign re: start time up here.

Photos or it never happened

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

That is wild. Do you think we virga for 7 hours? Honest question. This is an airmass we arent used to here in the MA. But 7 hours?

Could it be the mountains? It is coming in from the west over the Apps.