stormtracker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Even an earlier start would help around here. I mean, it's possible. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Even an earlier start would help around here. I mean, it's possible. Based on some of the obs I dare say it's likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, yoda said: 15z 18z Still snowing there in Frederick at 18z. The Catoctin’s at 1500’ are gonna get rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Geez....5 degrees at Big Meadows on Skyline Drive this time of day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Hrrr continues to show very high ratio snowfall overnight. I'll share the snowfall depth after the run finishes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 43 minutes ago, weatherCCB said: If you look at the radar stormtracker posted. Precip looks to be moving ESE. I too noticed all day out west that very little latitude was gained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, bncho said: Will this greatly improve the verification scores of the American models? Will the GFS be an actual model to consider once this new core is implemented? I'm not a huge fan of FV3, so I would hope so. One big thing is that a fully-coupled GFS will be implemented later this year, which should be very helpful. That means a lot of things, but it means that the atmosphere, water, land-surface, and sea ice will all "talk" to each other. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Even an earlier start would help around here. I mean, it's possible. The way reports are looking I’d say 8pm for the immediate area. That’s for the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Even an earlier start would help around here. I mean, it's possible. Guarantee I am going to get weenied like a mofo. But this is going to start WAY earlier than the models thought. 5 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Guarantee I am going to get weenied like a mofo. But this is going to start WAY earlier than the models thought. I mean actual obs aren't weenie worthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Hrrr continues to show very high ratio snowfall overnight. I'll share the snowfall depth after the run finishes. Right before the changeover. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, clskinsfan said: Guarantee I am going to get weenied like a mofo. But this is going to start WAY earlier than the models thought. DP of -5 is not good for that prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: DP of -5 is not good for that prediction 8 Hours of virga though? I find that highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 19 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If the GFS is right, there's DC 10. 8.5 snow 1.5 sleet I went 10-15” all week and never wavered with the every 6 hour run. I think the despondent grouping will find that the high pressure set up we have is nearly unprecedented 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, clskinsfan said: 8 Hours of virga though? I find that highly unlikely. @Bob Chill How much virga was over your yard before you saw your first flakes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I too noticed all day out west that very little latitude was gained Yeah. Good sign . We want the precip shield to come in west to east. Might hold off transition time. Sign HP is holding strong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Terpeast said: Nice. They bumped it up. NWS mets always ahead of us. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Right before the changeover. Damn. That’s solid 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18z 3k nam doesn’t start precip in dc metro till 6z. LWX has us starting at 3z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Rap new run 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Recent hrrr tries to start us earlier, but has us fighting dry air and doesn’t get us going in earnest till 7z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The boom case is fairly easy, and each part kinda builds off itself... Wouldn't show this to a logistician but: We start earlier We have more QPF Starting earlier helps May also help us thump longer Ratios are better than modeled The earlier we start, ratios are better, seemingly We flip later 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago HRRR continues to advertise a later flip than the NAM. More like 15z/10am in DC. Rates are always important, but it’ll kill us if we lose the column by 7am. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, mitchnick said: Rap new run That’s a massive snowfall for NYC and northern Nj. Does it account for sleet or fit the atmospheric conditions, storm path? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Recent hrrr tries to start us earlier, but has us fighting dry air and doesn’t get us going in earnest till 7z That is wild. Do you think we virga for 7 hours? Honest question. This is an airmass we arent used to here in the MA. But 7 hours? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hokiehop Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The first flakes have arrived in Ashland, Va. I can't imagine that's a bad sign re: start time up here. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Guarantee I am going to get weenied like a mofo. But this is going to start WAY earlier than the models thought. This may be the first in several demonstrations of what this unique, cold high can do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Hokiehop said: The first flakes have arrived in Ashland, Va. I can't imagine that's a bad sign re: start time up here. Photos or it never happened 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: That is wild. Do you think we virga for 7 hours? Honest question. This is an airmass we arent used to here in the MA. But 7 hours? Could it be the mountains? It is coming in from the west over the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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