Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[jaydreb]

Just now, Weather Will said:

It would be cool if a Met from NWS could tell us why they think NAM is wrong.

The Euro is a better model than the NAM?

[mitchnick]

No GGEM or RGEM, but the Geps updated and here's it's snowfall. Not bad folks.

EDIT: Obviously includes sleet at 10:1

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I have no doubt our corridor gets 6–10” before the flip…and probably pretty easily. Every flake will count in this airmass.

I tend to agree. Although the flip is being modeled sooner and sooner with each run. 

[MillvilleWx]

Final Forecast for the Storm

Some adjustments were made to reduce snow a touch and increase sleet which is a lower ratio component of the forecast. Still will be a formidable storm with some ice accretion added for good measure. A lot of the snowfall range should be take for a south to north crescendo with higher ranges more likely to the north of the lines presented. Will not be perfect by any stretch, but gives a good proxy. High impact event regardless as cold air behind the storm is very legit and we will struggle to break freezing for several days post storm. Be warm and safe everyone! 

[WEATHER53]

20 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

NWS keeping big totals in forecast  for NW zones.

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

.A large area of precipitation will overrun Arctic air in place over
the Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to widespread significant snow
beginning this evening, with the potential for ice Sunday especially
south of Highway 50 and near and east of Interstate 95. In addition
to the high threat for significant snow and ice, very cold
temperatures are expected tonight through the middle of next week
with sub-zero wind chills likely at times.

MDZ003>005-502-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505-WVZ050>053-504-250215-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.260125T0400Z-260126T0900Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western
Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Eastern Mineral-
115 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 9 and 13 inches, with up to 16 inches
  possible in western Maryland. Ice accumulations up to a tenth of
  an inch, mainly across the northern Shenandoah Valley.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northern
  and northwest Virginia, and eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight,
  becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour
  possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected
  Sunday. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at
  times. A prolonged period of very cold wind chills continues this
  evening and lasting through the middle of next week.

 

I want to ask about the “mileage” of “near 95”. Along 95 and 5 miles away, or 10 or20 or 30?

Thanks 

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Final Forecast for the Storm

Some adjustments were made to reduce snow a touch and increase sleet which is a lower ratio component of the forecast. Still will be a formidable storm with some ice accretion added for good measure. A lot of the snowfall range should be take for a south to north crescendo with higher ranges more likely to the north of the lines presented. Will not be perfect by any stretch, but gives a good proxy. High impact event regardless as cold air behind the storm is very legit and we will struggle to break freezing for several days post storm. Be warm and safe everyone! 

When you say Max 10" or whatever does that mean some isolated areas will receive up to 10"?

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, bncho said:

When you say Max 10" or whatever does that mean some isolated areas will receive up to 10"?

Maybe 10” is the boom scenario and 4-8 is the most likely outcome?

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

When you say Max 10" or whatever does that mean some isolated areas will receive up to 10"?

Yes that’s what that usually means. 

[WEATHER53]

21 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Latest DC statement still 6-10; 14 far NW

District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and
Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast
Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Culpeper-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier-Eastern
Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
115 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 6 and 10 inches, with up to 14 inches
  possible, especially in the far northern and western suburbs of
  Washington and Baltimore. Ice accumulations between one and two
  tenths of an inch.


* WHERE...DC, portions of central, northeast, and northern Maryland,
  and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice.
  Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight,
  becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour
  possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected
  Sunday. Significant icing is possible especially south of Highway
  50. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times. A
  prolonged period of wind chills in the single digits and teens
  continues this evening and lasting through the middle of next
  week, with sub-zero wind chills possible at times.

 

And on this when Montgomery county is the farthest north and “farthest” north and west is mentioned, is that farthest Montgomery?

[paulythegun]

It would be cool if a Met from NWS could tell us why they think NAM is wrong.

My guess...they have like 6+ other hires models to look at that are better than NAM, if you include all the experimental ones.

[baltosquid]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No GGEM or RGEM, but the Geps updated and here's it's snowfall. Not bad folks.

EDIT: Obviously includes sleet at 10:1

This was wetter than 00z. Really dirty, but if you take the 06z RGEM changeover times and maybe go an hour earlier because of the trends, maybe metros can touch ~0.7in QPF before the switch. With downside risk of course...

[Solution Man]

I bet the Nam comes in loaded

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Solution Man said:

I bet the Nam comes in loaded

Ain't no way, lol

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

Next weekends threat is returning on the CMC ens.

Wrong thread

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I bet the Nam comes in loaded

It’ll nudge south and colder. I’d put money on it…but I won’t because I actually really don’t know.

[EHoffman]

4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I bet the Nam comes in loaded

Yeah loaded with sleet

[jayyy]

It’ll nudge south and colder. I’d put money on it…but I won’t because I actually really don’t know.

Just enough to give the metros hopium

[87storms]

25 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Final Forecast for the Storm

Some adjustments were made to reduce snow a touch and increase sleet which is a lower ratio component of the forecast. Still will be a formidable storm with some ice accretion added for good measure. A lot of the snowfall range should be take for a south to north crescendo with higher ranges more likely to the north of the lines presented. Will not be perfect by any stretch, but gives a good proxy. High impact event regardless as cold air behind the storm is very legit and we will struggle to break freezing for several days post storm. Be warm and safe everyone! 

The sailing thru winter solstice boats at Carroll Creek are gonna look pretty cool after this event.

[MN Transplant]

18Z HRRR looks ok as long as you have reasonable expectations.  DC loses the column just prior to 15Z with about 0.50" QPF.

[jlewis1111]

Nothing new here. All hype all week to end up with squat like usual. The grocery stores win again

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

18Z HRRR looks ok as long as you have reasonable expectations.  DC loses the column just prior to 15Z with about 0.50" QPF.

Looks colder than 12z nam for the same times

[Ji]

1 minute ago, jlewis1111 said:

Nothing new here. All hype all week to end up with squat like usual. The grocery stores win again

you sound like a dude on facebook dude....dont do it here

[jlewis1111]

Just now, Ji said:

you sound like a dude on facebook dude....dont do it here

Im sure you are on the book. Dont get your undies in a wad

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks colder than 12z nam for the same times

ttb has 6-7" as of 15z. Not bad

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

Im sure you are on the book. Dont get your undies in a wad

not sure what you are doing in a DMV thread. there is a thread for Richmond

[jayyy]

Nothing new here. All hype all week to end up with squat like usual. The grocery stores win again

Yeah.. actually.. all major grocery store chains came together to conspire to skew 5 day model outputs for the sake of making money off idiots who prepare for snowstorms like they’re world ending.

[MN Transplant]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks colder than 12z nam for the same times

I think everything is colder than the NAMs, thankfully.

[WEATHER53]

2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

Im sure you are on the book. Dont get your undies in a wad

Newercomers  must act with restraint or get the boot 

[jlewis1111]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

not sure what you are doing in a DMV thread. this is a thread for Richmond

Isn't you mean. Sorry I thought I was in the banter thread. My apolgizes

[Wonderdog]

3 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

Nothing new here. All hype all week to end up with squat like usual. The grocery stores win again

You want a BIG snowstorm, you can't have the primary coming up the Appalachians. Our BIG ones form in the Gulf of America and then reform around HATTERAS and move N or NE up the coast. We'll  be lucky to get 8 inches in the metro area with this one.