pazzo83 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, weatherCCB said: 40 at 6pm 18 at 11pm 47 at 3pm -> 20F at 11pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 in Smithsburg. Definitely artic air Hoping the models are underplaying the cold push, but likely not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 15.8 here. Feels like 8.9 -4.4 dew point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Anyone got gfs sleet map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: The model guidance is pretty close at this point, with some variations. NAM is a major outlier with a much more amped/warm system. Needs to be watched tomorrow to see if it's sniffing something real. I think 10-12 for DC (snow and sleet) is still what I think will happen. Tomorrow we'll be watching the energy cross the country, so it will be fun and interesting to see what happens. Look at national radar. You can see it beginning to come together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Anyone got gfs sleet map? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 19/-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Remember when you thought yalls area was the jackpot and gonna receive 2 ft? How's it looking now? Like shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Are there any historical records of sleet alone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Are there any historical records of sleet alone? This will be no where near 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: If 6z NAM has backed off would that mean we're in the clear or will we need to wait for 12z? I'd pay attention to both, but if it backs off at 6z that's probably a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 23/2 here near Braddock Road metro. Just saw the 3k NAM. 5" snow followed by 3" sleet. Would still be quite the storm. You can't toss it unfortunately. Too many times we've seen mid level warm air punch its way well north and west than the globals suggested at 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, IUsedToHateCold said: I'd pay attention to both, but if it backs off at 6z that's probably a good sign. Now what if NAM stays the course but the other models do not cave to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 UK would be fun, flips DC basically at 17/18z Sunday with ~0.9” QPF before that. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, balltermen said: 23/2 here near Braddock Road metro. Just saw the 3k NAM. 5" snow followed by 3" sleet. Would still be quite the storm. You can't toss it unfortunately. Too many times we've seen mid level warm air punch its way well north and west than the globals suggested at 36 hours out. How many times has that happened with this level of significant cold in place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 UKMET still looks great 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, nj2va said: UK would be fun, flips DC basically at 17/18z Sunday with ~0.9” QPF before that. Sounds like an improvement? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Big boy cold arrived 3:30 44F 6:30 38F 10:30 22F This will be fresh cold for next 36 hours 12 noon Sunday onward unknown but 7-9” looks likely first 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, konksw said: How many times has that happened with this level of significant cold in place? a million. You never think a warm nose can find a way through. But it does. That said, the NAM is also wrong a lot and I think it is probably early with the flip time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Ukie flips DC to plain rain on Sunday evening lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 19 degrees in NW DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, WxMan1 said: Typically the degree of the warm air (MaxT aloft) will be proportional to the depth. In other words, the highest the MaxT aloft, the deeper the warm or >0C air. In many studies I've seen though, no matter how deep or shallow the warm air is, when you hit 3C or 37F, you're completely melting the hydrometeor. Once that happens, there's no going back to sleet or anything "pellety" unless the air somewhere within the subfreezing layer can get down to -13C/8F or lower. Unless that happens, the rain drop does not refreeze. When we see sleet, it's typically associated with an elevated warm layer temp between 0.5C and just below 3.0C. When it's closer to 0.5C, it's probably more of a sleety & rimed snow mix. When the MaxT aloft is closer to 2.5C, it's more like a sleet ball, with little if any evidence of a mangled snowflake. We're in for some real sh*t if that's the case. Most guidance gets the fall line and SE at or above +5C as early as 11am tomorrow. Would love to see those studies if you have the links. I don't recall ever having a situation where there is a +7 to -8 swing in a single profile in this area. That is some southern high plains ice storm levels of cold air wedging. We do not see this here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, JenkinsJinkies said: Now what if NAM stays the course but the other models do not cave to it? If a model is on an island it's probably wrong unless it's in it's wheelhouse doing something it's proven to excel at. NAM is good at thermals, so it is a wheelhouse, but we've seen the NAM be wrong outside of 24 hours. This is within 24 hours, so we are to assume it could be on to something, but I wouldn't necessarily conclude that verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10 minutes ago, nj2va said: I'm guessing rimed snow/sleet is like 5:1 and barely sleet like 2:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Chris78 said: Sounds like an improvement? Honestly, I’ve been so busy at work I haven’t paid much attention during the day. A quick look vs 18z and the flip was a touch later than 18z. I honestly don’t really put much confidence in UK thermals but a nice data point for the better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsq Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Dropping quickly down here in Calvert 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Canadian at 18z looks pretty good! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Does anybody have the UKIE kuchera? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 17/-7 in Havre de Grace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Can someone post CMC kuchera?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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