Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[WxUSAF]

temp down to 31 and falling. 

[aldie 22]

25 and dropping like a rock

[Weather Will]

28 and falling here....

[LeesburgWx]

I left Haymarket at 6:45pm with a temp of 38. Back home in Hamilton now and down to 28 in an hour and 15 min. Wow, it’s dropping quick!

[Swiscaster]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

It will be interesting to see who folds. GFS vs Euro

Are they that different at this point?

[Duca892]

I mean if DT is right and that NAM comes in even worse that’s brutal

[DDweatherman]

Down to 18 degrees here!

[bncho]

0z suite is starting with the HRRR. Let's reel this in!

(1/10)

[WesternFringe]

25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My yard will be a good barometer for my northern friends. Time spread for the models with my flip to sleet is as early as 1am or as late as 7am (as it stands right now). Onset right around 6pm or so. Range of snow amounts before the flip is 3-7". If I'm awake lol I'll post my snow totals and flip time. 

My gut guess is 4-5" of snow, 2-3" of sleet, and .25zr. Anything less than 3" of snow would be a bar buster but 3" or more of sleet would make up for it lol

I will be watching what you and @Buddy1987@wxdude64 and guys like that are observing since you are upstream of this storm from me, as you all are for most snowstorms for that matter.

I appreciate you guys!  May your flip over be ever delayed and good luck!

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Swiscaster said:

Are they that different at this point?

No. There is no "folding". That's simpleton talk.

[Terpeast]

29 now. Was 39 an hour ago

[nj2va]

Temp dropping like a rock, down to 34/10.  5/0 at Deep Creek.

[CAPE]

33 heading to 10

Just started a fire to keep the heat pump from running.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

No. There is no "folding". That's simpleton talk.

Lol agreed. Global models aren't supposed to be analyzed at the microscopic level. I never thought the gfs and euro were that apart when people were calling it 2 different planets yesterday lol.  This is how it always works entering the short range. Global models will never be identical beyond 48 hours. The gfs and euro ticked towards a middle ground pretty much like they always do.

 

A gfs/euro blend at 72 hours is a pretty safe take with the vast majority of our events. Euro is a superior model in the mid range but the gfs does pretty good with the northern stream. A blend with a hedge towards the euro is pretty much what I do with every storm. Tomorrow the mesos will be more important than the globals. I know you know this stuff and we probably agree that some mountains were made out of mole hills the last 24 hours. 

 

 

 

 

[clskinsfan]

25.3/3 Crazy temp crash going on right now

[Jebman]

Winds here are easing around to the ENE. Temp 64/63. Very dark cloud cover all day, portending rain later tonight which will transition into ZR probably Saturday morning sometime.

DMV should do well with the snow and sleet. You will all be thoroughly glaciated by Monday, and this Glacial Era will continue well into February.

This is going to evolve into one heck of a winter there, and it is upon you. This pattern will not ease up. More snows are coming your way. 

[jayyy]

Bottoms falling out. Down to 20 already

[davidjd1114]

18 and windy in York


.

[adelphi_sky]

32

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

33 heading to 10

Just started a fire to keep the heat pump from running.

I lit the charcoal grill to grill some lamb chops just after the front passed through.  The fire struggled mightily to put out decent heat.  Was concerned I'd have to finish the chops in the broiler.

First world problems, aye.

[pazzo83]

31/4 here and dropping rapidly.

[Grothar of Herndon]

26 and falling in Herndon

 

 

[yohan]

Here in Reston, VA earlier check temp at about 5:00 PM to decide layering or a hoodie, it was 46 degrees. As of posting it is now 26 degrees. So, would this say colder air is here for the event, dunno not the weather geek, just a lurker wanting to learn weather

[yohan]

1 minute ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

28 and falling in Herndon

hey neighbor, i say reston you say Herndon but in reality its dam same region

 

 

[Paleocene]

32/7. dropping quick in the heat island. goodbye, above freezing temps!

[paxpatriot]

Temp already down to 18.2F on the M/D. On our way to 7-ish.

[Hank Scorpio]

Here's the frontal passage as recorded on my tempest. Dropping quick! 

[WeatherGeek2025]

20 here in White Plains

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z HRRR 4 am Sunday; 9, noon flip in DC complete; 3 pm flip to PA line: Precip totals 7 pm Sunday: A True glacier.

[Massanothing]

33/7 here in Massanutten....temps dropped off a cliff here starting at 3:30...high for 48 earlier.