January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Ralph Wiggum]

In any event, this time Saturday we will be watching a huge swath of snow creeping towards the region with no worries of a miss.  Been a while since we have been able to watch a big frozen qpf bomb encroach on our areas.

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

My estimates of the precip before and after the modeled changeover in DC.  

 

Model Model Run Prior QPF Time of flip Post-flip QPF Euro 12z Thursday 0.75" 18z Sun 0.65" GFS 12z Thursday 0.90" 02z-07z Mon 0.52" GDPS 12z Thursday 0.80" 15z Sun 0.84" ICON 12z Thursday 0.70" 16z Sun 0.54" UKMET 12z Thursday 1.05" 22z Sun 0.50" AIFS 12z Thursday 0.62" 15z Sun 0.75" AIGFS 12z Thursday 0.75" 15z Sun 0.70" RDPS 12z Thursday 0.84" 13z Sun 0.62"+ 12k NAM 12z Thursday 0.60" 14z Sun 0.90"+

In Silver Spring, I will take this and run. Especially if we hold through 18z (or after)

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Also think of it this way… we’re finally getting a classic N&W storm

While this might be true the only thing saving ALL OF US from an unmitigated disaster is a massively anomalous dump of cold air.  If we didn't have that this would be a total rain storm after a mix to start

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

My estimates of the precip before and after the modeled changeover in DC.  

Model Model Run Prior QPF Time of flip Post-flip QPF Euro 12z Thursday 0.75" 18z Sun 0.65" GFS 12z Thursday 0.90" 02z-07z Mon 0.52" GDPS 12z Thursday 0.80" 15z Sun 0.84" ICON 12z Thursday 0.70" 16z Sun 0.54" UKMET 12z Thursday 1.05" 22z Sun 0.50" AIFS 12z Thursday 0.62" 15z Sun 0.75" AIGFS 12z Thursday 0.75" 15z Sun 0.70" RDPS 12z Thursday 0.84" 13z Sun 0.62"+ 12k NAM 12z Thursday 0.60" 14z Sun 0.90"+

[jaydreb]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I feel like the energy in here is shifting the wrong way for pretty much no reason? If you are holding onto the GFS as anything but a longshot perfect outcome, you're gonna have a bad time. But everything else pretty much tells the same story:

5-8"+ for most people in the metros on the thump then we go to sleetmaggedon. Usual folks out west probably climb above 1'. It's not gonna rain, at least. Gonna be wicked in it's own way.

5-8” of pounding snow followed by sleet and frigid temps that make it stick around for a while sounds good to me.  The ground will be white when we look outside for quite a while.  

[WEATHER53]

When we mention the I 95 corridor, how far north and west and along  95 are we talking about ?

[hstorm]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

My estimates of the precip before and after the modeled changeover in DC.  

 

Model Model Run Prior QPF Time of flip Post-flip QPF Euro 12z Thursday 0.75" 18z Sun 0.65" GFS 12z Thursday 0.90" 02z-07z Mon 0.52" GDPS 12z Thursday 0.80" 15z Sun 0.84" ICON 12z Thursday 0.70" 16z Sun 0.54" UKMET 12z Thursday 1.05" 22z Sun 0.50" AIFS 12z Thursday 0.62" 15z Sun 0.75" AIGFS 12z Thursday 0.75" 15z Sun 0.70" RDPS 12z Thursday 0.84" 13z Sun 0.62"+ 12k NAM 12z Thursday 0.60" 14z Sun 0.90"+

Hopefully this should help quell some of the inexplicable moping about likely snow vs. mix amounts.  Also, the trends in the past 12 hours have largely been stable -- a little colder, a little warmer, some small changes to total QPF.  I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night but I just don't see anything right now that would suggest further dramatic changes.

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I feel like the energy in here is shifting the wrong way for pretty much no reason? If you are holding onto the GFS as anything but a longshot perfect outcome, you're gonna have a bad time. But everything else pretty much tells the same story:

5-8"+ for most people in the metros on the thump then we go to sleetmaggedon. Usual folks out west probably climb above 1'. It's not gonna rain, at least. Gonna be wicked in it's own way.

I think it’s the way it has unfolded. We haven’t been hit with a big one in a decade. Many in the Baltimore area havent even had a warning criteria in that time. This looks big. The models, especially the best ones, had the center of the state as ground zero for big totals for a few days. Now the rug is being pulled.

Had models initially showed a few inches and then beefed up to 6-10 topped with sleet, I think people would be pumped.

Maybe we get a trend in our favor. If not, hopefully we finally get clobbered next weekend. This is hopefully just the start of our chances, but you never want to waste your chances, either. You always think there are more, then sometimes later find out there is not.

[AdamHLG]

This is shaping up to be a classic storm. For those that have been here a while you know your own climo. If past major storms flipped to sleet it’s going to happen again. If you’re N&W of the metros you’ll flip toward the end - maybe. I think climo situational awareness is just as important as model runs.


.

[MN Transplant]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The crust on top of the snow is going to be amazing by the time Tuesday rolls around.  Let's reel the following weekend's storm in and get snow-on-snow.

[psuhoffman]

EPS did shift NW slightly overall, but there is some good under the hood.  

The 10 and 25% snowfall actually shifted southeast...the 10% snowfall is now 6" in DC, up from about 4.5"  This would seem to indicate a floor of about 6".  There are less disaster members with under 6".  

The 50% did drop from 11 to 9"  and the 75% dropped from 14" to 11" so we are losing the upside potential as the jack zone is shifting further and further northwest the last several runs.  

[mitchnick]

Eps fwiw at this point. Pretty consistent if nothing else.

[winter_warlock]

We're still a few days out so I'm sure models will wobble a bit still 

[hstorm]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

When we mention the I 95 corridor, how far north and west and along  95 are we talking about ?

6.47 miles, give or take a few feet.

More seriously, I always take "N&W" to mean changes start at the fall line, with snow amounts, ratios, whatever getting better as you go further N&W from there.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, AdamHLG said:

This is shaping up to be a classic storm. For those that have been here a while you know your own climo. If past major storms flipped to sleet it’s going to happen again. If you’re N&W of the metros you’ll flip toward the end - maybe. I think climo situational awareness is just as important as model runs.


.

I'm thinking the last decade skewed everyone.

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS did shift NW slightly overall, but there is some good under the hood.  

The 10 and 25% snowfall actually shifted southeast...the 10% snowfall is now 6" in DC, up from about 4.5"  This would seem to indicate a floor of about 6".  There are less disaster members with under 6".  

The 50% did drop from 11 to 9"  and the 75% dropped from 14" to 11" so we are losing the upside potential as the jack zone is shifting further and further northwest the last several runs.  

For Baltimore at this point I'm thinking a floor of 6" and a ceiling of 10" based on the recent runs.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS did shift NW slightly overall, but there is some good under the hood.  

The 10 and 25% snowfall actually shifted southeast...the 10% snowfall is now 6" in DC, up from about 4.5"  This would seem to indicate a floor of about 6".  There are less disaster members with under 6".  

The 50% did drop from 11 to 9"  and the 75% dropped from 14" to 11" so we are losing the upside potential as the jack zone is shifting further and further northwest the last several runs.  

Yeah, I don't really view this as the mean going down. I mean, I guess it obviously did (lol), but I'm just seeing this as our goalposts appropriately narrowing. 

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, I don't really view this as the mean going down. I mean, I guess it obviously did (lol), but I'm just seeing this as our goalposts appropriately narrowing. 

I think we'd all sign on the dotted line for this right now? 100%ish chance at WSW snow and then whatever else happens happens?

 

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I feel like the energy in here is shifting the wrong way for pretty much no reason? If you are holding onto the GFS as anything but a longshot perfect outcome, you're gonna have a bad time. But everything else pretty much tells the same story:

5-8"+ for most people in the metros on the thump then we go to sleetmaggedon. Usual folks out west probably climb above 1'. It's not gonna rain, at least. Gonna be wicked in it's own way.

Yeah because just 36 hours ago it was looking more like 8-12" for the metros and now we're down to 5-8"...and seeing unfavorable trends with the low position and such. So many times we get closer and stuff gets lower and lower. Been burned many times the last 10 years

[IUsedToHateCold]

7 minutes ago, hstorm said:

6.47 miles, give or take a few feet.

More seriously, I always take "N&W" to mean changes start at the fall line, with snow amounts, ratios, whatever getting better as you go further N&W from there.

For winter storms you get hit with a double whammy if you live east of 95 in Maryland - you're closer to the bay, which means slightly warmer temperatures in the winter, and being further east means you're closer to coastal lows. Even 20 miles out from the bay you still get a little bit of the effect. Drive from Columbia to Severna Park and watch your dashboard thermometer and you'll see. 

If there is one benefit to living in the east - you never worry about QPF. You open your windows and look outside and you see its a swamp out there. And you're reminded that you're the QPF winner. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah because just 36 hours ago it was looking more like 8-12" for the metros and now we're down to 5-8"...and seeing unfavorable trends with the low position and such. So many times we get closer and stuff gets lower and lower. Been burned many times the last 10 years

6-12 is still the best range at the juncture. Do agree it sucks to have a one in ten year storm turn into a snow and sleet bomb instead of two feet. 

[stormtracker]

22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I feel like the energy in here is shifting the wrong way for pretty much no reason? If you are holding onto the GFS as anything but a longshot perfect outcome, you're gonna have a bad time. But everything else pretty much tells the same story:

5-8"+ for most people in the metros on the thump then we go to sleetmaggedon. Usual folks out west probably climb above 1'. It's not gonna rain, at least. Gonna be wicked in it's own way.

I think you're low for down here.  A foot not impossible, but not likely. If anything, I'd go back to my 6-10 call before the sleet bomb.  Could be fun with temps in the 20s.  Hey, if we getting lemons, make lemonade

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

6-12 is still the best range at the juncture. Do agree it sucks to have a one in ten year storm turn into a snow and sleet bomb instead of two feet. 

2 feet was the exclusive domain of the Apple weather app, no one serious had that forecasted anywhere outside the mountains.

[dallen7908]

20 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

My estimates of the precip before and after the modeled changeover in DC.  

 

Model Model Run Prior QPF Time of flip Post-flip QPF Euro 12z Thursday 0.75" 18z Sun 0.65" GFS 12z Thursday 0.90" 02z-07z Mon 0.52" GDPS 12z Thursday 0.80" 15z Sun 0.84" ICON 12z Thursday 0.70" 16z Sun 0.54" UKMET 12z Thursday 1.05" 22z Sun 0.50" AIFS 12z Thursday 0.62" 15z Sun 0.75" AIGFS 12z Thursday 0.75" 15z Sun 0.70" RDPS 12z Thursday 0.84" 13z Sun 0.62"+ 12k NAM 12z Thursday 0.60" 14z Sun 0.90"+

So assuming 10:1 and throwing out the extrema - 6 - 9" before changeover and assuming 3:1 afterwards we're talking 8-11 - can't complain about that.  Hope it holds. 

[Bob Chill]

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I question the amount of freezing rain the Euro is depicting for the DC area up towards Baltimore. Something seems off with that. Probably some of that is sleet.

Agree CAPE. I've been looking close at the soundings on the euro for the last 3 days and the ZR doesn't add up. Even when at thin layer around 700mb is +1 with everything else well below and a surface of 20 degrees, the euro is showing zr. That's a classic (easy) sleet sounding. Imho, the euro is missing and/or undoing the sleet amounts by a lot. 

[konksw]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, I don't really view this as the mean going down. I mean, I guess it obviously did (lol), but I'm just seeing this as our goalposts appropriately narrowing. 

Yes but I think most were hoping for the largest snow since 2016. That falls short of 2019 and at least one of last years much less hyped storms. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I think you're low for down here.  A foot not impossible, but not likely. If anything, I'd go back to my 6-10 call before the sleet bomb.  Could be fun with temps in the 20s.  Hey, if we getting lemons, make lemonade

Not to trigger @mattie g but I know our climo. Gonna hedge the snow a little low. We'll sleet earlier than we want.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I think you're low for down here.  A foot not impossible, but not likely. If anything, I'd go back to my 6-10 call before the sleet bomb.  Could be fun with temps in the 20s.  Hey, if we getting lemons, make lemonade

Same for Baltimore area or a little more?

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

6-12 is still the best range at the juncture. Do agree it sucks to have a one in ten year storm turn into a snow and sleet bomb instead of two feet. 

People never learn that if it looks good at day 5 for you then you probably aren’t going to be the jackpot by game time. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

People never learn that if it looks good at day 5 for you then you probably aren’t going to be the jackpot by game time. 

I think it's because it held in the models until the very last minute.