Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 In any event, this time Saturday we will be watching a huge swath of snow creeping towards the region with no worries of a miss. Been a while since we have been able to watch a big frozen qpf bomb encroach on our areas. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: My estimates of the precip before and after the modeled changeover in DC. Model Model Run Prior QPF Time of flip Post-flip QPF Euro 12z Thursday 0.75" 18z Sun 0.65" GFS 12z Thursday 0.90" 02z-07z Mon 0.52" GDPS 12z Thursday 0.80" 15z Sun 0.84" ICON 12z Thursday 0.70" 16z Sun 0.54" UKMET 12z Thursday 1.05" 22z Sun 0.50" AIFS 12z Thursday 0.62" 15z Sun 0.75" AIGFS 12z Thursday 0.75" 15z Sun 0.70" RDPS 12z Thursday 0.84" 13z Sun 0.62"+ 12k NAM 12z Thursday 0.60" 14z Sun 0.90"+ In Silver Spring, I will take this and run. Especially if we hold through 18z (or after) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Also think of it this way… we’re finally getting a classic N&W storm While this might be true the only thing saving ALL OF US from an unmitigated disaster is a massively anomalous dump of cold air. If we didn't have that this would be a total rain storm after a mix to start 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: My estimates of the precip before and after the modeled changeover in DC. Model Model Run Prior QPF Time of flip Post-flip QPF Euro 12z Thursday 0.75" 18z Sun 0.65" GFS 12z Thursday 0.90" 02z-07z Mon 0.52" GDPS 12z Thursday 0.80" 15z Sun 0.84" ICON 12z Thursday 0.70" 16z Sun 0.54" UKMET 12z Thursday 1.05" 22z Sun 0.50" AIFS 12z Thursday 0.62" 15z Sun 0.75" AIGFS 12z Thursday 0.75" 15z Sun 0.70" RDPS 12z Thursday 0.84" 13z Sun 0.62"+ 12k NAM 12z Thursday 0.60" 14z Sun 0.90"+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I feel like the energy in here is shifting the wrong way for pretty much no reason? If you are holding onto the GFS as anything but a longshot perfect outcome, you're gonna have a bad time. But everything else pretty much tells the same story: 5-8"+ for most people in the metros on the thump then we go to sleetmaggedon. Usual folks out west probably climb above 1'. It's not gonna rain, at least. Gonna be wicked in it's own way. 5-8” of pounding snow followed by sleet and frigid temps that make it stick around for a while sounds good to me. The ground will be white when we look outside for quite a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 When we mention the I 95 corridor, how far north and west and along 95 are we talking about ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: My estimates of the precip before and after the modeled changeover in DC. Model Model Run Prior QPF Time of flip Post-flip QPF Euro 12z Thursday 0.75" 18z Sun 0.65" GFS 12z Thursday 0.90" 02z-07z Mon 0.52" GDPS 12z Thursday 0.80" 15z Sun 0.84" ICON 12z Thursday 0.70" 16z Sun 0.54" UKMET 12z Thursday 1.05" 22z Sun 0.50" AIFS 12z Thursday 0.62" 15z Sun 0.75" AIGFS 12z Thursday 0.75" 15z Sun 0.70" RDPS 12z Thursday 0.84" 13z Sun 0.62"+ 12k NAM 12z Thursday 0.60" 14z Sun 0.90"+ Hopefully this should help quell some of the inexplicable moping about likely snow vs. mix amounts. Also, the trends in the past 12 hours have largely been stable -- a little colder, a little warmer, some small changes to total QPF. I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night but I just don't see anything right now that would suggest further dramatic changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I feel like the energy in here is shifting the wrong way for pretty much no reason? If you are holding onto the GFS as anything but a longshot perfect outcome, you're gonna have a bad time. But everything else pretty much tells the same story: 5-8"+ for most people in the metros on the thump then we go to sleetmaggedon. Usual folks out west probably climb above 1'. It's not gonna rain, at least. Gonna be wicked in it's own way. I think it’s the way it has unfolded. We haven’t been hit with a big one in a decade. Many in the Baltimore area havent even had a warning criteria in that time. This looks big. The models, especially the best ones, had the center of the state as ground zero for big totals for a few days. Now the rug is being pulled. Had models initially showed a few inches and then beefed up to 6-10 topped with sleet, I think people would be pumped. Maybe we get a trend in our favor. If not, hopefully we finally get clobbered next weekend. This is hopefully just the start of our chances, but you never want to waste your chances, either. You always think there are more, then sometimes later find out there is not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 This is shaping up to be a classic storm. For those that have been here a while you know your own climo. If past major storms flipped to sleet it’s going to happen again. If you’re N&W of the metros you’ll flip toward the end - maybe. I think climo situational awareness is just as important as model runs. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The crust on top of the snow is going to be amazing by the time Tuesday rolls around. Let's reel the following weekend's storm in and get snow-on-snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 EPS did shift NW slightly overall, but there is some good under the hood. The 10 and 25% snowfall actually shifted southeast...the 10% snowfall is now 6" in DC, up from about 4.5" This would seem to indicate a floor of about 6". There are less disaster members with under 6". The 50% did drop from 11 to 9" and the 75% dropped from 14" to 11" so we are losing the upside potential as the jack zone is shifting further and further northwest the last several runs. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Eps fwiw at this point. Pretty consistent if nothing else. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 We're still a few days out so I'm sure models will wobble a bit still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: When we mention the I 95 corridor, how far north and west and along 95 are we talking about ? 6.47 miles, give or take a few feet. More seriously, I always take "N&W" to mean changes start at the fall line, with snow amounts, ratios, whatever getting better as you go further N&W from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, AdamHLG said: This is shaping up to be a classic storm. For those that have been here a while you know your own climo. If past major storms flipped to sleet it’s going to happen again. If you’re N&W of the metros you’ll flip toward the end - maybe. I think climo situational awareness is just as important as model runs. . I'm thinking the last decade skewed everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS did shift NW slightly overall, but there is some good under the hood. The 10 and 25% snowfall actually shifted southeast...the 10% snowfall is now 6" in DC, up from about 4.5" This would seem to indicate a floor of about 6". There are less disaster members with under 6". The 50% did drop from 11 to 9" and the 75% dropped from 14" to 11" so we are losing the upside potential as the jack zone is shifting further and further northwest the last several runs. For Baltimore at this point I'm thinking a floor of 6" and a ceiling of 10" based on the recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: EPS did shift NW slightly overall, but there is some good under the hood. The 10 and 25% snowfall actually shifted southeast...the 10% snowfall is now 6" in DC, up from about 4.5" This would seem to indicate a floor of about 6". There are less disaster members with under 6". The 50% did drop from 11 to 9" and the 75% dropped from 14" to 11" so we are losing the upside potential as the jack zone is shifting further and further northwest the last several runs. Yeah, I don't really view this as the mean going down. I mean, I guess it obviously did (lol), but I'm just seeing this as our goalposts appropriately narrowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, I don't really view this as the mean going down. I mean, I guess it obviously did (lol), but I'm just seeing this as our goalposts appropriately narrowing. I think we'd all sign on the dotted line for this right now? 100%ish chance at WSW snow and then whatever else happens happens? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I feel like the energy in here is shifting the wrong way for pretty much no reason? If you are holding onto the GFS as anything but a longshot perfect outcome, you're gonna have a bad time. But everything else pretty much tells the same story: 5-8"+ for most people in the metros on the thump then we go to sleetmaggedon. Usual folks out west probably climb above 1'. It's not gonna rain, at least. Gonna be wicked in it's own way. Yeah because just 36 hours ago it was looking more like 8-12" for the metros and now we're down to 5-8"...and seeing unfavorable trends with the low position and such. So many times we get closer and stuff gets lower and lower. Been burned many times the last 10 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, hstorm said: 6.47 miles, give or take a few feet. More seriously, I always take "N&W" to mean changes start at the fall line, with snow amounts, ratios, whatever getting better as you go further N&W from there. For winter storms you get hit with a double whammy if you live east of 95 in Maryland - you're closer to the bay, which means slightly warmer temperatures in the winter, and being further east means you're closer to coastal lows. Even 20 miles out from the bay you still get a little bit of the effect. Drive from Columbia to Severna Park and watch your dashboard thermometer and you'll see. If there is one benefit to living in the east - you never worry about QPF. You open your windows and look outside and you see its a swamp out there. And you're reminded that you're the QPF winner. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah because just 36 hours ago it was looking more like 8-12" for the metros and now we're down to 5-8"...and seeing unfavorable trends with the low position and such. So many times we get closer and stuff gets lower and lower. Been burned many times the last 10 years 6-12 is still the best range at the juncture. Do agree it sucks to have a one in ten year storm turn into a snow and sleet bomb instead of two feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I feel like the energy in here is shifting the wrong way for pretty much no reason? If you are holding onto the GFS as anything but a longshot perfect outcome, you're gonna have a bad time. But everything else pretty much tells the same story: 5-8"+ for most people in the metros on the thump then we go to sleetmaggedon. Usual folks out west probably climb above 1'. It's not gonna rain, at least. Gonna be wicked in it's own way. I think you're low for down here. A foot not impossible, but not likely. If anything, I'd go back to my 6-10 call before the sleet bomb. Could be fun with temps in the 20s. Hey, if we getting lemons, make lemonade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: 6-12 is still the best range at the juncture. Do agree it sucks to have a one in ten year storm turn into a snow and sleet bomb instead of two feet. 2 feet was the exclusive domain of the Apple weather app, no one serious had that forecasted anywhere outside the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 20 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: My estimates of the precip before and after the modeled changeover in DC. Model Model Run Prior QPF Time of flip Post-flip QPF Euro 12z Thursday 0.75" 18z Sun 0.65" GFS 12z Thursday 0.90" 02z-07z Mon 0.52" GDPS 12z Thursday 0.80" 15z Sun 0.84" ICON 12z Thursday 0.70" 16z Sun 0.54" UKMET 12z Thursday 1.05" 22z Sun 0.50" AIFS 12z Thursday 0.62" 15z Sun 0.75" AIGFS 12z Thursday 0.75" 15z Sun 0.70" RDPS 12z Thursday 0.84" 13z Sun 0.62"+ 12k NAM 12z Thursday 0.60" 14z Sun 0.90"+ So assuming 10:1 and throwing out the extrema - 6 - 9" before changeover and assuming 3:1 afterwards we're talking 8-11 - can't complain about that. Hope it holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: I question the amount of freezing rain the Euro is depicting for the DC area up towards Baltimore. Something seems off with that. Probably some of that is sleet. Agree CAPE. I've been looking close at the soundings on the euro for the last 3 days and the ZR doesn't add up. Even when at thin layer around 700mb is +1 with everything else well below and a surface of 20 degrees, the euro is showing zr. That's a classic (easy) sleet sounding. Imho, the euro is missing and/or undoing the sleet amounts by a lot. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, I don't really view this as the mean going down. I mean, I guess it obviously did (lol), but I'm just seeing this as our goalposts appropriately narrowing. Yes but I think most were hoping for the largest snow since 2016. That falls short of 2019 and at least one of last years much less hyped storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, stormtracker said: I think you're low for down here. A foot not impossible, but not likely. If anything, I'd go back to my 6-10 call before the sleet bomb. Could be fun with temps in the 20s. Hey, if we getting lemons, make lemonade Not to trigger @mattie g but I know our climo. Gonna hedge the snow a little low. We'll sleet earlier than we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I think you're low for down here. A foot not impossible, but not likely. If anything, I'd go back to my 6-10 call before the sleet bomb. Could be fun with temps in the 20s. Hey, if we getting lemons, make lemonade Same for Baltimore area or a little more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: 6-12 is still the best range at the juncture. Do agree it sucks to have a one in ten year storm turn into a snow and sleet bomb instead of two feet. People never learn that if it looks good at day 5 for you then you probably aren’t going to be the jackpot by game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, TSSN+ said: People never learn that if it looks good at day 5 for you then you probably aren’t going to be the jackpot by game time. I think it's because it held in the models until the very last minute. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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