January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[weathercoins]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is evolving into a sleet bomb pretty quickly. Does anyone know of a comparable storm to what is being modeled? I cant find one.

I guess Feb 12-14, 2007, but the interaction with the coastal (and the track of the low through CO to Ohio Valley iirc) was far from the same so not perfect by any means 

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Single digits for most of Delmarva is nuts.

Not that uncommon away from the water in the interior(where I am) esp with snow cover . Hit 0 once and 5-10 is pretty common with a cold airmass in place with clear skies and no wind. There is literally nothing around here to hold the heat. Forecast low is 9 for Friday night, with no snow otg. Probably see low single digits next week.

[AACOUNTYMD]

Quick question from a certified lurker. . . I keep seeing snow maps that have 13+ in and around BWI. . . BUT, many posters are convinced of a long term sleet event.  Is this simply because of different models people are hugging?  Do models that give 13 inches not believe there will be ANY sleet?  So many questions. . . 

 

[weathercoins]

Just now, AACOUNTYMD said:

Quick question from a certified lurker. . . I keep seeing snow maps that have 13+ in and around BWI. . . BUT, many posters are convinced of a long term sleet event.  Is this simply because of different models people are hugging?  Do models that give 13 inches not believe there will be ANY sleet?  So many questions. . . 

 

Models are often awful with accounting for mixed precip in QPF forecasts.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, AACOUNTYMD said:

 I keep seeing snow maps that have 13+ in and around BWI

 

That's GFS and GEFS, UKIE and Euro are more like 10-11, ICON and NAM are closer to 8-9.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, AACOUNTYMD said:

Quick question from a certified lurker. . . I keep seeing snow maps that have 13+ in and around BWI. . . BUT, many posters are convinced of a long term sleet event.  Is this simply because of different models people are hugging?  Do models that give 13 inches not believe there will be ANY sleet?  So many questions. . . 

 

This is a QPF bomb so it is possible we get a foot of snow AND a ton of sleet.  If we change over quicker maybe 6-8 inches and then sleet.  Nothing is showing less than 6 inches of snow before a changeover.  The later the changeover, the more we  can pile up.

[WVclimo]

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is evolving into a sleet bomb pretty quickly. Does anyone know of a comparable storm to what is being modeled? I cant find one.

I ended up with several inches of sleet here from this one on top of 3" of snow.  

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2007/14-Feb-07-SurfaceMaps.html

[IUsedToHateCold]

1 minute ago, AACOUNTYMD said:

Quick question from a certified lurker. . . I keep seeing snow maps that have 13+ in and around BWI. . . BUT, many posters are convinced of a long term sleet event.  Is this simply because of different models people are hugging?  Do models that give 13 inches not believe there will be ANY sleet?  So many questions. . . 

 

There's going to be sleet. Especially here in AA county. The question is: how much sleet? GFS says not a lot, every other model has substantially more. GFS is probably going to cave, but its not certain. We're still three days out. Better confluence up top will lead to a more GFS-like solution

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

I'm guessing pivotal 10:1 includes sleet and Kuchera does not.

This... I mentioned this after Mitch posted the 6z UK ensembles...the UKMET 10-1 snow maps counts sleet as snow so they are inflated on the southern end.  Can't compare them to other models that don't do that...it gives the false impression the UK is further south than it is...if you just look at those maps...which you shouldn't anyways  

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, IUsedToHateCold said:

There's going to be sleet. Especially here in AA county. The question is: how much sleet? GFS says not a lot, every other model has substantially more. GFS is probably going to cave, but its not certain. We're still three days out. Better confluence up top will lead to a more GFS-like solution

A southern weaker low will be a huge factor too. If it drives into WV the majority of us will flip soon after sunrise on Sunday. If the transfer happenes down in TN/KY We should get less mixy

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

GEFS is a beat down. Hope it’s right.
 

 

Just one damn time...  

[jrodd321]

Kutchera ukie? 

[wtkidz]

You could be in Tennessee , Kentucky, or West Virginia and have this. 

 

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

I ended up with several inches of sleet here from this one on top of 3" of snow.  

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2007/14-Feb-07-SurfaceMaps.html

Thanks for this. It is pretty similar at 700. But very different at 500 and the surface. Really good info on that site. Appreciate it. 

[paulythegun]

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is evolving into a sleet bomb pretty quickly. Does anyone know of a comparable storm to what is being modeled? I cant find one.

Nothing too close but the top analogs based on 12z GFS (MAYBE NOT REALITY?) included:

• February 11, 1986: https://www.upi.com/Archives/1986/02/11/The-second-winter-snowstorm-in-a-week-blanketed-the/4624508482000/
• The infamous 2021 southern ice storm (February 10-15, 2021) that crippled Texas.
• The christmas slop snowstorm of 2002 (I believe that's baltimore's last "White" christmas): https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/25-Dec-02.html

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, jrodd321 said:

Kutchera ukie? 

Most of our area is 0.8-1.0 QPF before a change on crazy uncle ukie so pick your ratio!  Could be a foot with decent ratios IMO.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, wtkidz said:

You could be in Tennessee , Kentucky, or West Virginia and have this. 

 

Good luck to anyone in the freezing rain zones, cause it’s not going to to end well. 

[SolidIcewx]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Good luck to anyone in the freezing rain zones, cause it’s not going to to end well. 

I work in Utility. Next week is gonna be a long one for me.

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Good luck to anyone in the freezing rain zones, cause it’s not going to to end well. 

This is where the mountains help us with CAD.

[Terpeast]

Just now, SolidIcewx said:

I work in Utility. Next week is gonna be a long one for me.

Good luck and stay safe/warm. We appreciate your work. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Terpeast said:

This is where the mountains help us with CAD.

The only time the mountains do us a favor. Some places going to see over .75” zr and I just wish them good luck. Power outages will be massive and tree damage will be extreme in those areas especially since the days after the storm it’s not going to melt. 

[Eskimo Joe]

55 minutes ago, das said:

Surrounded by 70+% open water, albeit running cooler than normal.  Incredible.  I wonder if the industrial chicken houses there even have insulation.

Some are well insulated, others are just glorified quonset huts.

[TSSN+]

First ice storm warning in Alabama and it sounds grim. 

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between one quarter of an inch to one inch.

* WHERE...Colbert, Franklin AL, and Lauderdale Counties. * WHEN...From midnight Friday Night to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages. Expect power outages that last more than a day and extensive tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. Significant cold weather is expected after this winter weather, so any power outages may result in dangerous indoor temperatures.

 

[stormtracker]

Euro has begun

[stormy]

4 hours ago, high risk said:

So, you don’t actually know that.    The winter part of the NBM at this range only includes the NAM, GFS and its ensembles, and the Euro and its ensembles.   The para includes some of the Canadian system as well. 

Thank you for your usual wisdom!!

[jayyy]

Quick question from a certified lurker. . . I keep seeing snow maps that have 13+ in and around BWI. . . BUT, many posters are convinced of a long term sleet event.  Is this simply because of different models people are hugging?  Do models that give 13 inches not believe there will be ANY sleet?  So many questions. . . 
 

They all have sleet.. even the GFS (albeit the least) What gives BWI 10-13” is the massive thump of snow prior to the mixing. It’s also kuchera, which is probably dropping near 20:1 ratios at the peak.

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro has begun

Euro is typically steady eddy (so not expecting much change) but I noticed slightly slower start times as the latest trend. Curious if that continues.

[jayyy]

GFS certainly has the full support of its ensembles. This is the literal exact situation we wouldn’t trust its thermals over the euro or NAM nest (inside 48 hrs) though.

6-10+ for the immediate metros and 8-12+ for areas away from 95 seems like a reasonable call at this juncture. Could we see 12-18” up this way? Maybe. But I’m going to play it safe with 8-12 with upside

[WxMan1]

1 hour ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Agree, nothing is showing less than 0.5 QPF before a change over and ratios should be decent or better.  

And with at least a 12-1 during the period of snow (reasonable), that's at least a 6" floor for all of us. Which I think is safe. 6-8" would be good forecast for those of us in the metro area along/east of 95.

[psuhoffman]

12z AIFS is significantly NW and warmer...