snowfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I thought you were out? If you read the 2nd part of that I said I’d be back in if 6z stopped the bleeding. So far so good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Could be a top 10 in Dulles ?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 This is a very very alarming excerpt from the latest Richmond AFD as of 248am EST. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=AKQ&issuedby=AKQ&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off A variety of precipitation types are expected in this setup with big differences as you head NW to SE across the forecast area. Cold air holds strong at the surface for inland areas as the wedge reinforces. Warmer air likely intrudes across the far SE, with temperatures potentially climbing into the upper 40s to around 50 while areas across the NW stay in the lower 20s. In addition, all guidance indicates some form of a warm nose developing around ~850mb, potentially spreading as far inland as the NW Piedmont. This will result in a messy situation with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain possible across the forecast area. The thickness and strength of the eventual warm nose is what will ultimately decide our precipitation types. Precipitation likely starts off as all snow for a majority of the area Saturday afternoon-evening, spreading north from the south. A change over then occurs from SE to NW with areas across the far SE changing to plain rain. Meanwhile, it gets messier further inland with snow/sleet/freezing rain all being possible Saturday night into Sunday night. Right now far NW portions of the area would be favored for the most snowfall, while areas south of I-64 and along/west of I-95 would be favored for more icing (see further details about both below). Whatever form of wintry precipitation that does fall will be significant, hence the Winter Storm Watches. Ice: After looking at the 00z guidance, am really starting to get concerned that a good portion of the area may see significant to potentially catastrophic ice impacts. The latest NBM indicates a 30- 50% chance for AT LEAST 0.50" of freezing rain for much of the area along/south of I-64 from our western border over to the western Tidewater and up to the Middle Peninsula. 1.00" probabilities of freezing rain have increased to near 20% across South Central Virginia which may be too low. Even more concerning, the EPS Mean accumulation of freezing rain ranges from 1.00-1.50" across the same locations, with the deterministic ECWMF showing even higher/more alarming numbers. It is possible that the EPS/ECMWF, are overdoing the freezing rain and some of this QPF may be sleet instead (from glancing at model soundings), but even half of these amounts will result and a significant ice storm. Ice accumulation of this magnitude would likely result in major travel impacts as well as widespread and long-lasting power outages. Snow: Snow probabilities remain fairly steady, favoring the far northern half of the area up to DC. The probabilities for greater than 12" of snow (off of the NBM) range from 40-60% for much of the northern half of the forecast area, with even higher probabilities (60-80%+) for at least 6". I am concerned these values may be overdone, especially the further south you go, due to substantial mixing of sleet and/or freezing rain. There will likely be a very sharp cutoff in snow amounts (from north to south) just over or near the northern half of the forecast area which we will still need to fine tune with future forecasts. Everyone should take note and begin to make preparations for a significant snow/icing event as moderate to major (potentially extreme) impacts are looking increasingly likely from this storm. In addition, after effects from the storm will likely last well into the work week due to very cold temperatures. I am sorry if this has been mentioned before but this situation is SERIOUS BUSINESS. I am very concerned about those higher numbers. A few years ago I personally experienced three quarters of an inch of ice in Buda, TX. The effect on the oaks down here were alarming to say the least. Ice in excess of 1.50 inches is something I can not even begin to imagine. South Virginia and parts of North Carolina will very likely become disaster zones deteriorating into outright humanitarian catastrophes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 What did the 6z CMC say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 What time does the morning euro come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: What time does the morning euro come out? 620 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: What time does the morning euro come out? 6:30 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Jebman said: This is a very very alarming excerpt from the latest Richmond AFD as of 248am EST. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=AKQ&issuedby=AKQ&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off A variety of precipitation types are expected in this setup with big differences as you head NW to SE across the forecast area. Cold air holds strong at the surface for inland areas as the wedge reinforces. Warmer air likely intrudes across the far SE, with temperatures potentially climbing into the upper 40s to around 50 while areas across the NW stay in the lower 20s. In addition, all guidance indicates some form of a warm nose developing around ~850mb, potentially spreading as far inland as the NW Piedmont. This will result in a messy situation with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain possible across the forecast area. The thickness and strength of the eventual warm nose is what will ultimately decide our precipitation types. Precipitation likely starts off as all snow for a majority of the area Saturday afternoon-evening, spreading north from the south. A change over then occurs from SE to NW with areas across the far SE changing to plain rain. Meanwhile, it gets messier further inland with snow/sleet/freezing rain all being possible Saturday night into Sunday night. Right now far NW portions of the area would be favored for the most snowfall, while areas south of I-64 and along/west of I-95 would be favored for more icing (see further details about both below). Whatever form of wintry precipitation that does fall will be significant, hence the Winter Storm Watches. Ice: After looking at the 00z guidance, am really starting to get concerned that a good portion of the area may see significant to potentially catastrophic ice impacts. The latest NBM indicates a 30- 50% chance for AT LEAST 0.50" of freezing rain for much of the area along/south of I-64 from our western border over to the western Tidewater and up to the Middle Peninsula. 1.00" probabilities of freezing rain have increased to near 20% across South Central Virginia which may be too low. Even more concerning, the EPS Mean accumulation of freezing rain ranges from 1.00-1.50" across the same locations, with the deterministic ECWMF showing even higher/more alarming numbers. It is possible that the EPS/ECMWF, are overdoing the freezing rain and some of this QPF may be sleet instead (from glancing at model soundings), but even half of these amounts will result and a significant ice storm. Ice accumulation of this magnitude would likely result in major travel impacts as well as widespread and long-lasting power outages. Snow: Snow probabilities remain fairly steady, favoring the far northern half of the area up to DC. The probabilities for greater than 12" of snow (off of the NBM) range from 40-60% for much of the northern half of the forecast area, with even higher probabilities (60-80%+) for at least 6". I am concerned these values may be overdone, especially the further south you go, due to substantial mixing of sleet and/or freezing rain. There will likely be a very sharp cutoff in snow amounts (from north to south) just over or near the northern half of the forecast area which we will still need to fine tune with future forecasts. Everyone should take note and begin to make preparations for a significant snow/icing event as moderate to major (potentially extreme) impacts are looking increasingly likely from this storm. In addition, after effects from the storm will likely last well into the work week due to very cold temperatures. I am sorry if this has been mentioned before but this situation is SERIOUS BUSINESS. I am very concerned about those higher numbers. A few years ago I personally experienced three quarters of an inch of ice in Buda, TX. The effect on the oaks down here were alarming to say the least. Ice in excess of 1.50 inches is something I can not even begin to imagine. South Virginia and parts of North Carolina will very likely become disaster zones deteriorating into outright humanitarian catastrophes. Don’t want to see that. I pray that does not happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I passed out at 945 last night lol. Staying up the two prior nights killed me. But glad I woke up to still in the game. 6z euro out shortly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: I passed out at 945 last night lol. Staying up the two prior nights killed me. But glad I woke up to still in the game. 6z euro out shortly. You’ll be primed today, wandering what happened to you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Couldn't stay awake for the runs last night either. Needed a good night's sleep. Hopefully, we have seen the constant jumps north come to and end after the 6z gfs. The first run I have seen that actually had a slight bump south. Unless I am missing anything. Too many posts to sift through! Hoping the euro at least holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Couldn't stay awake for the runs last night either. Needed a good night's sleep. Hopefully, we have seen the constant jumps north come to and end after the 6z gfs. The first run I have seen that actually had a slight bump south. Unless I am missing anything. Too many posts to sift through! Hoping the euro at least holds. Your rested eyes saw it correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 9 minutes ago, Interstate said: What did the 6z CMC say? GREAT!!! Link to all the parameters. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Don’t want to see that. I pray that does not happen On that we both agree fervently. Its not just the ice and the outages and damages to trees/shrubs vegetation, vehicles, structural damages to buildings and electrical/communications infrastructure and massive pileups on highways to say nothing of people trying to walk to warm places on solid highly slippery glacierlike ice substrates, but the extremely cold air, devastating wind chills which will make this a very difficult dilemma for responders attempting to help people in need. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I’ll wait until Saturday morning or so and NAM 3k is in range, but I’m really skeptical of ZR north of like EZF (and maybe even south of that). Really would think snow to sleet to storm over. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 WB 6Z EURO AI 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO AI Looks like basically a hold. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Looks like basically a hold. Toggling the 850 anomaly it looks like a noticeable shift colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looks like basically a hold. It ticked south and colder. Primary wasn’t as far north 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Toggling the 850 anomaly it looks like a noticeable shift colder. A little ya dc increased like 1” of snow that run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Last night’s 0z on top. 6z below. Thanks, Will! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Toggling the 850 anomaly it looks like a noticeable shift colder. Small tip on interpreting 850 anoms - our climo minimum is -4C, so even if it's "anomalously warm" by 3 C, it's still -1 May not be worth much since it's an AI model and I don't trust thermals (yet), and there are other levels where the warm nose could be strongest (probably 750-800 mb). Mesos will help us figure that out as we get closer in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 WB 6Z EURO 1am Sunday, 7, 10, 1 pm, 4, 7, 10 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6Z euro looks to be colder too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 At hr81, euro is a little drier, and/or slowed down by a few hours. Less qpf when comparing runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 Euro still has that warm nose at 700-850 gets up to me by Sunday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 Just now, mappy said: Euro still has that warm nose at 700-850 gets up to me by Sunday afternoon About an inch qpf IMBY before any flip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO 1am Sunday, 7, 10, 1 pm, 4 WV panhandle looks to be the spot on the euro...im holding on for dear life at 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 I’m terrible at analysis but it’s a region wide hold, def sleety in the afternoon Sunday for 95 east 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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