January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hurt?  I'm claiming you bud.  You are with us.  I'm saying we are keeping you here.

I’m more pointing toward JI that was not directed at you. You’ve always done me right. Also helps I got Chill on my side down here now. It’s like drafting Jordan out of UNC equivalency. In all seriousness tho, we have actually grown the crew exponentially down this way. Ive seen a bunch of peeps start posting down this way. 

[clskinsfan]

It's trying to jump from TN to just off OC at 96. But by then the upper levels are toast.

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Probably a Philly north thing.

Oh yeah if the second wave is real we don't have a chance of catching any of it.

[LP08]

There’s another lobe North of New England that comes down (quicker than 18z) that compresses heights and prevents the trough from tilting more negative.

[baltosquid]

ICON looks colder at 700 and 850 and seems more efficient with the thump. Mixing line does not want to budge but does look like there's more press for a souther low track. Right direction, even if we want more of an improvement.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It actually is a hold or just ever so slightly cooler than 18z

i think the main thing tonight is with this new 00z that its still going to snow more than we have seen in a long time. Last February we went from 25 to 12 to 7 to 0 very quickly.....no sign of that.

 

yet

[southmdwatcher]

Avoid the potential devastating freezing rain event and then let's enjoy the big snow-sleet/mix/severe cold. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

It's trying to jump from TN to just off OC at 96. But by then the upper levels are toast.

thats 7pm sunday though...isnt the storm over by then?

[jaydreb]

Are we Buffalo that we can scoff at 6-10” of snow?

[SnowenOutThere]

RGEM for whoever cares looks to probably shift everything a bit East out west so far. While I'm looking at worthless things the FV3 looks more suppressed than everything else

[Amped]

I actually like this Icon run. The dryslot and the changeover hit at the same time north of I95, which means we dont waste a lot of heavy precip.

[stormtracker]

RGEM will probably hold so far

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

thats 7pm sunday though...isnt the storm over by then?

For us it is yeah.

[LVblizzard]

Just now, Amped said:

I actually like this Icon run. The dryslot and the changeover hit at the same time north of I95, which means we dont waste a lot of heavy precip.

That’s the big saving grace with this storm. The front end thump is a THUMP. Even the torchiest models have warning level snow before the changeover happens.

[NorthArlington101]

Since it wasn’t posted yet: 

[baltosquid]

Just now, Amped said:

I actually like this Icon run. The dryslot and the changeover hit at the same time north of I95, which means we dont waste a lot of heavy precip.

Just a tiny tick south away from catching some light backend stuff too in the metros. Definitely an acceptable outcome if we can establish it as a goalpost or near one.

[nj2va]

Even the most amped models are getting warning level+ snowfall to NVA/DC/etc before any kind of flip happens.  That’s a great thing.

[mitchnick]

It stalls and keeps snowing and snowing on NE.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Since it wasn’t posted yet: 

If that's before the changeover, I'll take it.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Is that a capture on the icon between 114 and 120?

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

For us it is yeah.

the Icon is typically very stingy with snow. this alot for the ICon

[baltosquid]

RRFS A looks better thru 68 hours. Brought the STJ piece more south and looks like it's less interested in a quick phase. Lower heights out front.

[clskinsfan]

ICON looks like it has a follow up clipper

[batmanbrad]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If that's before the changeover, I'll take it.

Not likely to be before the changeover since the time says it's through 1PM on Monday... still not bad for the ICON though.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

the Icon is typically very stingy with snow. this alot for the ICon

Hey gets Baltimore back to a foot? We take 

[Buddy1987]

RGEM downright impressive with cad. In a 12+ hr period the HP crawls from Buffalo to Plattsburgh and keeps a 1042. Unreal cold air anchored in place bare minimum. 

[wxdude64]

24 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Shit.. I’m kinda hurt by this.. I’ve literally been around since the Eastern US Weather days and have posted plenty of times in here, mainly in the winter months. People acting like I’m posting from Jackson Hole  I call it the dead zone down here because we are inbetween the mid Atlantic and southeast forum crews. 

Yep, I'm with you on that, about 40 miles north.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Off topic, but since everyone is hanging in here, icon is sending a clipper into the flow midweek with this weekend storm acting as a 50/50 and the flow jammed up.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

RGEM downright impressive with cad. In a 12+ hr period the HP crawls from Buffalo to Plattsburgh and keeps a 1042. Unreal cold air anchored in place bare minimum. 

sorry--i had not seen your name in a while....sorry for my comment. I thought you were new lol

[bncho]

Okay, RGEM's confluence a hair souther