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“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco


TheSnowman
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40 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

For the most part yes.  GFS was a bit screwy.  For instance, what are we looking at here?

prateptype_cat-imp.us_ne.png

Am I just easily impressed, or is this one hell of a storm to put out this much snow across such a large area and not even be sub 1000mb?

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I’m ready to get into nowcasting mode soon. Seems that snow and sleet have started earlier than predicted for some folks in the Midwest and south - while there’s a large dry slot between the north and southern rails of precipitation, leaving AK and south TX in a snow hole

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3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

I’m ready to get into nowcasting mode soon. Seems that snow and sleet have started earlier than predicted for some folks in the Midwest and south - while there’s a large dry slot between the north and southern rails of precipitation, leaving AK and south TX in a snow hole

AK=Alaska

AR=Arkansas

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56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan ‘05 def did. Jan ‘11 for sure. Jan ‘17. Those were coastals though. This is basically a massive SWFE. We do get some coastal characteristics below about 800-850mb, but can’t really recall a similar system. 
 

Maybe Feb 5, 2014…that was a really juiced SWFE. Airmass wasn’t like this though. This airmass being so cold is what makes this one a different beast. 

January 2005.  Remember every day that week.  It kept going up right until the Day of, 20-30 with lollies to 36 was the final forecast.  And it certified.  

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54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan ‘05 def did. Jan ‘11 for sure. Jan ‘17. Those were coastals though. This is basically a massive SWFE. We do get some coastal characteristics below about 800-850mb, but can’t really recall a similar system. 
 

Maybe Feb 5, 2014…that was a really juiced SWFE. Airmass wasn’t like this though. This airmass being so cold is what makes this one a different beast. 

I feel like this is exactly why this is a now cast kind of storm. You can’t say that the models are totally wrong with things like jackpots and sleet lines, but it’s a very anomalous setup where the models may be “guessing” a little more than usual, and we still see discrepancies 24 hours out…

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44 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I am not greedy, I will take a foot and run with that! Will be the biggest snowfall since returning from FL. 

Same here. It would be my biggest snowfall outside a ski resort in a decade. I’d be thrilled with a foot but I think it will easily exceed that.

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40 minutes ago, wx_observer said:

Am I just easily impressed, or is this one hell of a storm to put out this much snow across such a large area and not even be sub 1000mb?

I keep thinking of PDII and even a week ago saw it as the most obvious analogue. It was preceded by a bigger cold airmass with a 1040+ high and robust overrunning system that didn’t have much of a strong low.

The difference with this one is that it shifted further north. That one was a DC to Boston blockbuster.

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30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It shows .8” of qpf for you (if that’s where you are there in Maine?), if you do 20:1 there’s your 16”.  That’s great, no? 

Yes on the above......what's frustrating is that while the qpf amoujnt has been increasing through SNE, it's been stubbornly steady....hardly moving at all one way or the other.

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