“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[wx_observer]

40 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

For the most part yes.  GFS was a bit screwy.  For instance, what are we looking at here?

Am I just easily impressed, or is this one hell of a storm to put out this much snow across such a large area and not even be sub 1000mb?

[tiger_deF]

I’m ready to get into nowcasting mode soon. Seems that snow and sleet have started earlier than predicted for some folks in the Midwest and south - while there’s a large dry slot between the north and southern rails of precipitation, leaving AK and south TX in a snow hole

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

I’m ready to get into nowcasting mode soon. Seems that snow and sleet have started earlier than predicted for some folks in the Midwest and south - while there’s a large dry slot between the north and southern rails of precipitation, leaving AK and south TX in a snow hole

AK=Alaska

AR=Arkansas

[moneypitmike]

57 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Meh

??  I don't like hearing you say 'meh'

[moneypitmike]

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Things really don't want to beef up the qpf in Maine......we're just stuck.  Oh well.

[Cold Miser]

14 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

You think we’re going to see any? Thinking it doesn’t make it any further north than Norwich 

Maybe.  That would be nice

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Things really don't want to beef up the qpf in Maine......we're just stuck.  Oh well.

It shows .8” of qpf for you (if that’s where you are there in Maine?), if you do 20:1 there’s your 16”.  That’s great, no? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like 12z a bit better than 18z.

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Models looked pretty good here. Please hold. Scooter has been a good boy.

Nice paste job there dude . You are gonna get crushed with heavy wet snow , damage and outages. We all jealous .

[HIPPYVALLEY]

58 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Paging @ORH_wxman

Jan ‘05?

I was living in Cambridge for that one. One of the greatest storms of all time for me and my only 30” event.  It snowed for two days.

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Fu.ckin sleet

Not very likely there 

[ineedsnow]

18z Euro

[MASnowSquatch]

2/11/06, maybe?

Fun fact: that was also the day that this happened in Corpus Christi:

Vice President Dick Cheney accidentally shot and wounded Harry Whittington, a companion during a weekend quail-hunting trip in Texas.


.

[TheSnowman]

56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan ‘05 def did. Jan ‘11 for sure. Jan ‘17. Those were coastals though. This is basically a massive SWFE. We do get some coastal characteristics below about 800-850mb, but can’t really recall a similar system. 
 

Maybe Feb 5, 2014…that was a really juiced SWFE. Airmass wasn’t like this though. This airmass being so cold is what makes this one a different beast. 

January 2005.  Remember every day that week.  It kept going up right until the Day of, 20-30 with lollies to 36 was the final forecast.  And it certified.  

[bristolri_wx]

54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan ‘05 def did. Jan ‘11 for sure. Jan ‘17. Those were coastals though. This is basically a massive SWFE. We do get some coastal characteristics below about 800-850mb, but can’t really recall a similar system. 
 

Maybe Feb 5, 2014…that was a really juiced SWFE. Airmass wasn’t like this though. This airmass being so cold is what makes this one a different beast. 

I feel like this is exactly why this is a now cast kind of storm. You can’t say that the models are totally wrong with things like jackpots and sleet lines, but it’s a very anomalous setup where the models may be “guessing” a little more than usual, and we still see discrepancies 24 hours out…

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z Euro

Another bump up for central and N. CT. Dam, we take. 

[ROOSTA]

HREF / HRRR

FTW

Nowcast RAP starting when the flakes start flying.

On the precipice of one of those special 24hrs, I'm extremely jealous. PATS are favored.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Another bump up for central and N. CT. Dam, we take. 

Numbers 

[78Blizzard]

There may be some lollies to near 30".

[powderfreak]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Models looked pretty good here. Please hold. Scooter has been a good boy.

If I had to pick one poster’s location to go to with for this storm, it might be you.

Either your area or Essex County.

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Numbers 

Awesome, I think it’s fair to assume 12:1 ratios at least even without getting carried away, this is a widespread 18”+ storm underway if other guidance matches these QPF totals which they seem to.

[Fozz]

44 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I am not greedy, I will take a foot and run with that! Will be the biggest snowfall since returning from FL. 

Same here. It would be my biggest snowfall outside a ski resort in a decade. I’d be thrilled with a foot but I think it will easily exceed that.

[vortex95]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Models looked pretty good here. Please hold. Scooter has been a good boy.

CoastalWx realizing his "dream." 

 

[moneypitmike]

43 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He said a page back or so, it was 18”. 

 

Cool.  Just a few more days of cold and Chris might be ready for long-sought pond skating.

[Fozz]

40 minutes ago, wx_observer said:

Am I just easily impressed, or is this one hell of a storm to put out this much snow across such a large area and not even be sub 1000mb?

I keep thinking of PDII and even a week ago saw it as the most obvious analogue. It was preceded by a bigger cold airmass with a 1040+ high and robust overrunning system that didn’t have much of a strong low.

The difference with this one is that it shifted further north. That one was a DC to Boston blockbuster.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

[CT Valley Dryslot]

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

WOW! 

[Snowguy66]

I hope the Patriots lose tomorrow. Looks like you're gonna get a great storm. Hopefully the Patriots lose to offset that.


.

[moneypitmike]

30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It shows .8” of qpf for you (if that’s where you are there in Maine?), if you do 20:1 there’s your 16”.  That’s great, no? 

Yes on the above......what's frustrating is that while the qpf amoujnt has been increasing through SNE, it's been stubbornly steady....hardly moving at all one way or the other.