“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[ineedsnow]

not to go off topic but this is going to be a fun webcam to watch in a few minutes

 

 

[ineedsnow]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

not to go off topic but this is going to be a fun webcam to watch in a few minutes

 

 

insane right now

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

closer view

[ariof]

54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Intitially?  Not for the same sort of physical causes ... which you intimated.

Isentropic snow events tend to be more uniform in character.  They are caused by general flow up an elevated frontal slope...  Cold in the low levels, with an arriving warmer, potentially psuedo-adiabatic unstable air mass then forced up over the front;  eventually through it's unstable altitude/pressure level it starts rising and precipitating... etc.   That tends to be more linearly distribute action, such that you get a general rad display...

Those meso bands you are thinking of, like that 2020 Dec hyper version, are elevated convergence axis formed from differential mid tropospheric jets moving past and air moving preferentially toward the region of best synoptic forcing to rise over where that is happening.   Lots of pricey physical math later, then crossing that up with the aspects above, you can get huge results.  In this sense... yeah ... if the latter low does get more mechanically coherent, then some meso banding could set up associated with that.  There will be differential jet advection going on associated with that so it could.  Just about all defined low pressures have meso structures...  You can see them here on this 12z GFS regarding the later big dawg blizzard it has for the 31st

 

Thanks!

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know this is a little OT, but oh my GOD, I just had an epic squall roll through here. Pure whiteout conditions. I ran outside barely clothed.

Let’s bring hours of this for all Sunday-Monday

 

Absolute weenie dream in some of the numbers being spit out.

BTV did put a squall warning out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/long-duration-high-impact-winter-storm.html

First Call:

 

 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/long-duration-high-impact-winter-storm.html

First Call:

 

 

looks great! 

[kazimirkai]

This is getting ridiculous. Isn't the NBM supposed to be the most reasonable model?

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/long-duration-high-impact-winter-storm.html

First Call:

 

 

Do you think we can manage double digits up here?  I think out current ceiling is 10 with 6-8 being the modt likely.

[Masswx]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/long-duration-high-impact-winter-storm.html

First Call:

 

 

Ooh thanks for the local higher amounts

[WxWatcher007]

18 minutes ago, mreaves said:

BTV did put a squall warning out.

Yeah, it got issued right after it passed through here. SLK reported ground visibility of .13 and VV of 500 ft.

Got clipped by a second, which was warned to the south. That wasn't as robust here. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Like 5 posts the last two hours. Storm fatigue setting in lol

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Like 5 posts the last two hours. Storm fatigue setting in lol

3 days out still. I need a break

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Ooh thanks for the local higher amounts

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Like 5 posts the last two hours. Storm fatigue setting in lol

I mean, until the next model runs, there’s only so much you can say about it.

I’m personally still going with a slightly more conservative regionwide 8”-14” until Friday evening model output.   I always worry about the snow growth factor, especially anywhere between Springfield and Brattleboro in the CRV. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Awesome to see you go all in! Hope it works out for all

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Do you think we can manage double digits up here?  I think out current ceiling is 10 with 6-8 being the modt likely.

Pitt 1, 8, 10? Which one? I think you could hit 10" in Bath.

[WeatherGeek2025]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/long-duration-high-impact-winter-storm.html

First Call:

 

 

how

much 

for 

nyc

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Ooh thanks for the local higher amounts

Take dad sledding and make him shovel every couple hours. Make sure he enjoys this…

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Awesome to see you go all in! Hope it works out for all

Yea, I was slow to the punch on this.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Like 5 posts the last two hours. Storm fatigue setting in lol

Thought had crossed my mind, yeah ... heh

I think though that this is daily model black out time.   I mean everything off the 12z's been pretty well squared away for over 3 hours at this point, comments all made.  

For me, I'm actually still at work for another half hour and needed the time to like do stuff.  haha

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

how

much 

for 

nyc

Grain of salt on these locales out of my area, but 10-12"?

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Do you think we can manage double digits up here?  I think out current ceiling is 10 with 6-8 being the modt likely.

8-12"

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Like 5 posts the last two hours. Storm fatigue setting in lol

Nothing to whine about so people unsure of what to do

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pitt 1, 8, 10? Which one? I think you could hit 10" in Bath.

Lol.  Ill be in bath—hence my hoping for northern tics of the precip.  

 

unlike the pope, i think were st the limit.

[WxWatcher007]

Mmm mmm good, BTV

Bolded the important parts. I knew it, @powderfreak.

  

As northern/southern stream energy phases double barrel low pres
with strong cad signature on lee-side of the Appalachians Mtns
develops on Sunday. The mid lvl ascent associated with an axis of
moderate to strong 7h fgen forcing wl shift from the mid Atlantic
states toward central New England on Sunday night, while potent
northern stream energy moves directly overhead. This synoptic scale
lift and advection of deeper sub-tropical over our very cold air
mass in place wl produce a period of moderate snowfall with high
fluff factor. Did note even in the drier GFS sounding profiles an
extremely deep DGZ from the sfc thru 22,000 feet with near
saturation in terms of ice in the cloud. This moisture/thermal
profiles indicate the potential for big time fluff factor acrs our
cwa, which could result in higher snowfall totals if enough moisture
is present. Snow ratios could be in the 20 to 25 to 1 ratio. The
primary impacts would be difficult travel late Sunday into Monday,
with moderate snowfall rates and very low visibilities. NBM
indicates probability of 7 inches or more of 60% or greater along
and south of a OGS to BTV to 1V4, with 60 to 80% or higher for
snowfall of at least 4 inches or more.

Mid/upper lvl trof along with some mid lvl goodies for enhanced
synoptic scale ascent lingers into Monday night with additional
light snowfall likely, that is why the watch is thru 06z Tues. This
lagging energy causes sfc low pres to stretch and linger just east
of MA, which could result in light snow prevailing into Tues,
especially as northwest upslope flow develops. Eventually moisture
decreases and snow showers taper off.

Temps wl continue to be much below normal for Sunday through the
middle of next week, especially Sunday into Monday with cold
northerly sfc winds and plenty of cloud cover.

[Prismshine Productions]

I mean, until the next model runs, there’s only so much you can say about it.
I’m personally still going with a slightly more conservative regionwide 8”-14” until Friday evening model output.   I always worry about the snow growth factor, especially anywhere between Springfield and Brattleboro in the CRV. 

Yeah same that is why I went 8-12"

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[Sey-Mour Snow]

So it seems like all the local NWS maps are 12-18"+ even though there Watch is for 6-12"+ interesting.. Mount holly as some 18-24's on their map which I doubt verifies as they are pretty far SW, but who knows.. Seems like their next update will be significantly higher and they are using the NBM which is super bullish for this storm.. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

15 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Ooh thanks for the local higher amounts

Has dad repaired the snowblower yet after destroying it in 2015?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Yeah same that is why I went 8-12"

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As we say, “you can always adjust up if needed”.