“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[Chrisrotary12]

17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

There are a lot of signs that point to this being a very strong thump especially south of the pike.. extremely anomalous WWA setup . As is euro is like 9+ hours of 1-2” + rates around here.. 

You might be right. My hesitation comes from uniqueness of this setup. Perhaps I’m wrong in the old SWFE rule of thumb of 6-8” then slot. Perhaps it’s not applicable here. The Euro ripping in dry air at 500 (maybe that’s above everything and doesn’t matter) and the 750 and 800 center taking a trip to Montreal just don’t scream widespread 12”+ to me. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Lock in the Euro AI and call it a day. That's how I hope this unfolds. 

I think that’s the upper bound solution. Prolific overrunning followed by a defined, developing costal with CCB action in eastern areas.

That is how someone scores 20.

Hope it’s right, but that’s looking less likely after 12z IMO

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Between this and earlier man, there's two full pages detailing the dgz and respected mets are banging the drum over rates, yes, you're wrong; maybe read the thread?

Good grief.

There are also some Mets with hesitation on bigger totals, are we ignoring that? It’s okay to disagree.

I want to see a more defined secondary development before I buy big totals. Others are free to think differently, and then we reconvene after the event to see what happened.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

There are also some Mets with hesitation on bigger totals, are we ignoring that? It’s okay to disagree.

I want to see a more defined secondary development before I buy big totals. Others are free to think differently, and then we reconvene after the event to see what happened.

I am in a bad mood deleted it my bad

[The 4 Seasons]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think the trend at 12z, minus the Canadian, was decidedly less potential CCB influence from another developing low pressure. I think that’s the key. And if we don’t get that, you have a hard time reaching big totals.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t we normally see huge ratios in a more traditional coastal? I’m not sure in this type of setup you are going to get 15+:1 ratios.

However, even an inch of water at 12-13:1 is close to a foot of snow.

Doesn't need to be a traditional coastal. Sometimes those can work against you if you have warmer air aloft raising the DGZ if the storm track starts coming too close. Also very high winds are not helpful and knock down snow and prevent it from stacking up nice. A lot of these crazy 20-30:1 storms are usually light wind events not blizzards. 

All you need is good lift inside the DGZ to produce high ratio stuff, doesnt have to be a coastal. 

Strong H7 FGEN and super tall DGZ and boom you got some large dendrites coming down.

Conversely cold =/ high ratios, for example if a lot of the lift is occurring outside the dendritic growth zone. 

[Masswx]

Why do we think 12z trends were bad? It’s still a 6-10/12 for many

[ROOSTA]

No snow accumulation maps at least till 00z Friday.
To many things can go wrong to even be close to accurate.
As many comment and know QPF on the rise with high snow ratios.

[weatherwiz]

All the details and such can be ironed out as we get closer but there is a ton to be excited and happy about at this time range. There is going to be no shortage of moisture with this and if we can get the final evolution to be very close to what the general consensus is, it's going to be a big hit over a very large area - obviously there will be mesoscale factors at play which result in some getting "screwed" and some "overperforming" but lets keep this signal for a powerhouse of WAA feeding into the airmass that will be in place, and with the thermal profile and temperature gradient (upward) velocities would be great over the entire area

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Why do we think 12z trends were bad? It’s still a 6-10/12 for many

Agree. Thanks. Post more and tell Dad to do his chores. 

[Hoth]

31 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think the trend at 12z, minus the Canadian, was decidedly less potential CCB influence from another developing low pressure. I think that’s the key. And if we don’t get that, you have a hard time reaching big totals.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t we normally see huge ratios in a more traditional coastal? I’m not sure in this type of setup you are going to get 15+:1 ratios.

However, even an inch of water at 12-13:1 is close to a foot of snow.

Given the stretch we’ve been through you should be overjoyed to have a shot at a foot. 

[dryslot]

43 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Missing out on the bulk of the big dog, we need to get as many scraps as we can.

Its 1" or so tonight, I'm not so sure were going to miss on it though right now.

[Kitz Craver]

12-15” will be achieved for many

[SouthCoastMA]

Looking at 500mb on EPS, Northern stream didn't look as amped vs 6z. 

[Wxbear25]

not that it matters much, but the 18z NAM out to 54 looks like it would end up being less conducive to an earlier phase

less interaction between our southern energy and the stuff diving out of Saskatchewan, noticeably lower heights out east as the ULL over SE Canada is a little later to depart

[mreaves]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its 1" or so tonight, I'm not so sure were going to miss on it though right now.

If we were to even score 6" here, it would be a huge win and lots of trail systems will open.

[Winter Wizard]

I would consider the Euro to be the upper limit of this...IF everything aligns there potential would be there for most of the sub to see a foot+, just not sure where. My main concern would actually be dry slotting and a potential messy handoff between the initial low and the coastal. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

If we were to even score 6" here, it would be a huge win and lots of trail systems will open.

You have trails closed up there?

[ariof]

6 minutes ago, mreaves said:

If we were to even score 6" here, it would be a huge win and lots of trail systems will open.

Given that the largest snowfalls in BOS since 2022 have been

5.5" (2/9/25)
5.4" (2/16/25)
5.3" (1/19/26)
5.2" (12/20/24)

I'd expect an underperformance with a storm total between 5.1" and 5.6"

Lots of nickels, never a dime

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Given the stretch we’ve had the past few years I think most on here should be happy that we are probably going to be able to lock in at least 6”- 10” for most of the SNE forum.  If it’s more than that great but I for one won’t be complaining about missed potential if I “only get”  8”. 

[CoastalWx]

Nam might have delivered with weenie extrapolation.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam might have delivered with weenie extrapolation.

It looked it at hr84.

[kazimirkai]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam might have delivered with weenie extrapolation.

certainly seems farther north than the gfs with a more eastern weighted shield. Waiting for reggie for comparison 

[FXWX]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Given the stretch we’ve had the past few years I think most on here should be happy that we are probably going to be able to lock in at least 6”- 10” for most of the SNE forum.  If it’s more than that great but I for one won’t be complaining about missed potential if I “only get”  8”. 

This where happiness goes to die... We have been praying for several years for an active deep winter pattern!  Now we get one and lots of folks look for any reason to complain... Quite remarkable actually...  

[gonegalt]

2 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Caution flag? 

 

pterodactyl

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam might have delivered with weenie extrapolation.

The ideal solution is to try and keep heights to our northeast semi-low while slamming all that backend vorticity into the trough…that would make the coastal take off and enhance fronto for us….thats the longshot HECS scenario. My guess is we get something imperfect like prolonged overrunning and a very sloped/disorganized coastal. 
 

18z NAM looked like it was trying to trend toward the nirvana solution. Really loading that energy out west but the heights to our north were a bit lower. 

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

This where happiness goes to die... We have been praying for several years for an active deep winter pattern!  Now we get one and lots of folks look for any reason to complain... Quite remarkable actually...  

I'll be thrilled with anything over 6 tbh. With how it started and how its going, I'm very satisfied with both

[Henry's Weather]

Snow emergency is my bar… nothing beats those blue flashes

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That would actually be more overrunning on nam with a bigger coastal…hecs look imo.

[ineedsnow]

18z ICON going to deliver

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The ideal solution is to try and keep heights to our northeast semi-low while slamming all that backend vorticity into the trough…that would make the coastal take off and enhance fronto for us….thats the longshot HECS scenario. My guess is we get something imperfect like prolonged overrunning and a very sloped/disorganized coastal. 
 

18z NAM looked like it was trying to trend toward the nirvana solution. Really loading that energy out west but the heights to our north were a bit lower. 

Exactly. Tons of energy on the backside and all that warmth moving NE slamming into confluence.