1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm

[ILSNOW]

hopefully no Winter Weather Advisories will be issued NWS has had a tough run in here.

and toss the 18z GFS

[WestMichigan]

Which reason on the list is it to toss the GFS?  #6 or I can't remember which one.

[Baum]

3 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Which reason on the list is it to toss the GFS?  #6 or I can't remember which one.

7. Off run.

[DocATL]

Reason 7…definitely. But I dunno, I might be out.

[Radtechwxman]

GFS either going to score a big one this being way more south or it's out to lunch per usual. Pretty narrow heavy snow axis on this run. Will obviously come down to phasing and that arctic high placement. 

[Powerball]

What's going to be really funny is if the data from the RECON just makes a bigger mess of things with the model outputs, at least initiially...

Nothing would surprise me any more...

[sbnwx85]

21 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Which reason on the list is it to toss the GFS?  #6 or I can't remember which one.

2. That model has been terrible this season.

[ILSNOW]

18z Euro backed down from 12z 

toss it!!!!

[Radtechwxman]

Probably more realistic euro run unfortunately. I think euro was best case north scenario and gfs was worse case south scenario so it's correcting some. An in between solution. 

[Chicago916]

12 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

18z Euro backed down from 12z 

toss it!!!!

End result on the EPS looks similar, so wouldn't look too much into that

[mimillman]

7 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Probably more realistic euro run unfortunately. I think euro was best case north scenario and gfs was worse case south scenario so it's correcting some. An in between solution. 

Agree with this that 18z euro is probably the best we’ll get in the sub forum given the set up. 

[sbnwx85]

[Radtechwxman]

9 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Keep reeling it north

[Baum]

Confused. Was the 18Z Euro an improvement or a step back for those with the magnets on the north fringe?

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

It's still pretty similar tbh 

[largetornado]

11 minutes ago, Baum said:

Confused. Was the 18Z Euro an improvement or a step back for those with the magnets on the north fringe?

Temps are warming further north cutting back on snow totals

[SchaumburgStormer]

Recon is in flight out off of Baja. Not sure if it’s specifically for this storm, but more data injected into tonight’s runs won’t hurt 

[Cary67]

5 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

It's still pretty similar tbh 

Would expect qpf numbers to dry up a bit and models usually are overdone at this range.

[Cary67]

18 minutes ago, Baum said:

Confused. Was the 18Z Euro an improvement or a step back for those with the magnets on the north fringe?

Would think it's a step back. Especially compared to 0Z ECMF run

[ILSNOW]

12z

 

X

 

[SouthOaklandCtyWX]

1 hour ago, Radtechwxman said:

Probably more realistic euro run unfortunately. I think euro was best case north scenario and gfs was worse case south scenario so it's correcting some. An in between solution. 

CMC is best case scenario north IMO.

[Radtechwxman]

Unfortunately for us up this way cold dry ne flow around arctic really going to eat into qpf and make it difficult for snow shield to advance north. Cutoff will be very sharp. 

[Stevo6899]

The next 48 hours are a delicate time and anyone from south bend to say Pittsburgh is in play imo. We've seen 300+mile shifts several times in this time frame when phasing is involved.

[Chicago916]

Sampling of the Baja low not included in the NAM (doesn't matter cuz it sucks anyways) but good for other models. So that won't explain any changes seen down there. 

https://x.com/i/status/2014131199120162993

[Jackstraw]

To be fair to the Canuk (no wishcasting here ) in general this winter inside of 7 days it has been the most stubborn (and drier) in the medium range. I know with the November and early Dec snows it performed rather well (especially the Nov systems along with the UKIE) inside 7 days with much less windshield wiping. Noe, it has tended to give EVERYONE as much snow as possible, but hey, it's Canadian so it's nice. I'm riding it like I stole it!