1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Euro does look a smidge more north 

[buckeye]

1 minute ago, OHweather said:

Yeah I agree those runs will be telling. All the other 12z models generally trended a bit slower with ejecting the Baja low too, but outside of the Euro which definitely bumped SE it wasn’t enough to overcome other trends that supported a more NW track on the other models. So there’s clearly a fair amount of sensitivity to relatively small changes with how that ejects out and phases. 

noticed that as well.    Also the northern stream is a little faster too which keeps the trough more positively tilted and you don't get time for a solid phase and a stronger primary.   Personally I wouldn't mind a 'tad' more phasing.   I don't mind smelling sleet and I'll even eat a little sleet if it results in a widespread hit for our sub.

[KokomoWX]

Euro still moving north...

[TimChgo9]

72 hours ago, S OH was in for maybe a couple of inches, according to the GFS, etc. Now we are on tap for 8? 10?  It’s been a fun storm to track for the last day or so.  

[andyhb]

Quote

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. "I'd rather be in Chicago"

Per MA sub-forum lol.

The synoptics here don't lie.

[buckeye]

probably tomorrow those watches will expand to the east coast and up more through OH and IN meaning almost 1/4 of the US mainland will be under a winterstorm watch or warning.   

[Stevo6899]

9 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Per MA sub-forum lol.

The synoptics here don't lie.

Yea you usually see these either miss the complete phase and slide more SE like the gfs, or you get a complete phase and wagons west. . More times than not, you get the former. West of apps or well east, no in-between track. Also the models struggle with phasing as we saw with the last storm that surprised the Detroit area and gave Toronto a foot plus. So many things have to go right timing wise so I'd guess we get more of a gfs track.

[Jackstraw]

11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

probably tomorrow those watches will expand to the east coast and up more through OH and IN meaning almost 1/4 of the US mainland will be under a winterstorm watch or warning.   

My memory's not what it used to be by far but if they do get expanded N and NE has there ever been a time that much of the country was under winter storm watches/warnings at once?  Nearly 40 years by my recollection but what do I know lol.

[Powerball]

2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

My memory's not what it used to be by far but if they do get expanded N and NE has there ever been a time that much of the country was under winter storm watches/warnings at once?  Nearly 40 years by my recollection but what do I know lol.

 

February 2021, and possibly GHD 2011...

[buckeye]

Temps are gonna be a story, not so much for extreme record lows, rather the duration of the cold.   Flipping through the euro for mby, the period starting this Sunday til the end of it's run, (Feb 5), our highest temp is 20 degrees.   Just as strange, the lowest temp is like -10 which granted is probably a record for whichever day it occurs, but it's not really that crazy considering the snowpack we should have throughout that time frame.  Usually these cold waves that hit this time of year with a snow pack almost always have a few days with stupid cold that rival all time cold record, (Dec 1989  -18 and Jan 1994 -22).

The other thing with these types of periods is when the back breaks with the pattern, it's usually done for the winter.... (old man winter blows his load, then shuts the lights and goes to bed)

[Baum]

6 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Temps are gonna be a story, not so much for extreme record lows, rather the duration of the cold.   Flipping through the euro for mby, the period starting this Sunday til the end of it's run, (Feb 5), our highest temp is 20 degrees.   Just as strange, the lowest temp is like -10 which granted is probably a record for whichever day it occurs, but it's not really that crazy considering the snowpack we should have throughout that time frame.  Usually these cold waves that hit this time of year with a snow pack almost always have a few days with stupid cold that rival all time cold record, (Dec 1989  -18 and Jan 1994 -22).

The other thing with these types of periods is when the back breaks with the pattern, it's usually done for the winter.... (old man winter blows his load, then shuts the lights and goes to bed)

I’m the same.

[Powerball]

18z NAM's coming back SE.

[Baum]

5 minutes ago, Powerball said:

18z NAM's coming back SE.

Be over Minneapolis this time tomorrow 

[DocATL]

18z NAM's coming back SE.

Don’t love that high placement.


.

[Baum]

Remember if you get a bad model run:

1. When is sampling?

2. That model has been terrible this season.

3. It has bias in that direction.

4. It injected bad data.

5. Point out the one run in the ensembles that buries you.

6. Clearly an outlier. Be blind to the truth.

 

feel free to add

[sbnwx85]

1 minute ago, Baum said:

Remember if you get a bad model run:

1. When is sampling?

2. That model has been terrible this season.

3. It has bias in that direction.

4. It injected bad data.

5. Point out the one run in the ensembles that buries you.

 

feel free to add

6. 6z and 18z data are off runs.

[Malacka11]

As far as bad runs of the long range NAM go...  maybe I'm squinting at it too hard, but I'm actually not seeing too much of a SE shift. Obv the nuiance of this kind of shit is lost on me but the low is also deeper at that point no?

[Baum]

1 minute ago, sbnwx85 said:

6. 6z and 18z data are off runs.

Correct.

[Baum]

1 minute ago, Malacka11 said:

As far as bad model runs of the long range NAM go...  maybe I'm squinting at it too hard, but I'm actually not seeing a SE shift at all.  

That’s 6A. 6. Clearly an outlier. Be blind to the truth.

[A-L-E-K]

things seems to be zeroing in on a solid to major hit for the southern and eastern portions of the sub

would need a real nice needle threading to get the goods this far nw and that's looking less likely than 12 hours ago imo

[sbnwx85]

Early, early call if the foreign models are correct: 4-6" in Chicagoland; 6-8" across Michiana. Add an inch or two for lake-enhancement if it applies to your backyard. 

Obviously, the bigger the totals, the more south and east you get.

[mimillman]

32 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

things seems to be zeroing in on a solid to major hit for the southern and eastern portions of the sub

would need a real nice needle threading to get the goods this far nw and that's looking less likely than 12 hours ago imo

You’re forgetting about our 100+ hr lake effect plume which always verifies 

[Malacka11]

Mein leiblingswettermodell, das ICON, ist NW 

[Chicago916]

1 minute ago, Malacka11 said:

Mein leiblingswettermodell, das ICON, ist NW 

When the measly ICON is northwest, bombs away

[A-L-E-K]

4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

You’re forgetting about our 100+ hr lake effect plume which always verifies 

Ready to seeder feeder our way to a low end advisory event

[Malacka11]

North of I80 mfs: just look at this image and ignore all possible meteorological context that can stifle the glory it strikes in your heart.  

[DocATL]

Correct.

7. Typical model waffling/wobbling/cha cha cha.

[DocATL]

GFS looks 50 miles north as the crow flies.


.

[ILSNOW]

chicago NWS

The next item of interest is the threat for accumulating snow
sometime late Saturday into Sunday. A significant winter storm is
expected to impact a large chunk of the central, southern, and
eastern CONUS this weekend, and we will largely reside along and
near the northern periphery of this storm. In spite of this,
there continues to be signs that the expansive precipitation
shield to our south may expand northward across our area
sometime Saturday into Sunday. While model and ensemble guidance
does continue to trend in this direction, it is important to
note that considerable uncertainty continues with the specifics
of this system. This is especially the case considering that
some complex interactions are likely to occur with a few
separate waves transitioning through the larger aggregate trough
in the west. Nevertheless, if snow does end up making into our
area but not for DocATL, very cold temperatures will support high ratio (20+ to 1)
fluffy snow which would make for widespread hazardous travel
across the area through the second half of the weekend. Stay
tuned!

[Baum]

2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

chicago NWS

The next item of interest is the threat for accumulating snow
sometime late Saturday into Sunday. A significant winter storm is
expected to impact a large chunk of the central, southern, and
eastern CONUS this weekend, and we will largely reside along and
near the northern periphery of this storm. In spite of this,
there continues to be signs that the expansive precipitation
shield to our south may expand northward across our area
sometime Saturday into Sunday. While model and ensemble guidance
does continue to trend in this direction, it is important to
note that considerable uncertainty continues with the specifics
of this system. This is especially the case considering that
some complex interactions are likely to occur with a few
separate waves transitioning through the larger aggregate trough
in the west. Nevertheless, if snow does end up making into our
area but not for DocATL, very cold temperatures will support high ratio (20+ to 1)
fluffy snow which would make for widespread hazardous travel
across the area through the second half of the weekend. Stay
tuned!

Last nights WWA still fresh in my mind