Stormlover74 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Icon slightly better. Need the rgem to hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: I'm not buying freezing rain vs snow, theres going to be a lot of sleet in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Epic bust if Nam is correct. Gives me in central NJ like 3" before going to sleet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: I really think the models were better 20 years ago. What happen?! What were those short range models? The Suny NMM , I forget but they were spot on... They weren't better. People forget the massive shift within 48 hrs for the 12/26/10 blizzard for example. I thought that one was lost OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It got worse snowfall wise. 3k might've been better but snowmaps aren't loading So the 12k flipped to sleet quicker but the sleet line did not get as far north which is a step in the right direction. We need 1 more tick like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1/24 00z ICON total storm QPF Total snow / Frz (10:1) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Epic bust if Nam is correct. Gives me in central NJ like 3" before going to sleet lol If NAM is correct they should not retire it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 14 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1/24 00Z NYC QPF / Snow (Frz) SREF (mean): 1.3 / 9.7 NAM: 1.2 / 4.7 ICON: 1.4 / 8.1 Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, David-LI said: If NAM is correct they should not retire it. I guess we'll find out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Talk about no change run to run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: So the 12k flipped to sleet quicker but the sleet line did not get as far north which is a step in the right direction. We need 1 more tick like that. We need the snow shield to be heavier/steadier. In 3 hours that NAM run surged the sleet line from Wilmington DE to Staten Island. The heavy precip is when it's sleeting. It would be varying snow rates for a few hours then all out sleetstorm for 60-70% of the precip that falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I'm not buying freezing rain vs snow, theres going to be a lot of sleet in between. Almost all of the guidance, including the NAM have the 875 mb layer down to the surface well below freezing. That would produce sleet. Some freezing drizzle can't be ruled out at some point, but the steady precipitation following the changeover from snow should be sleet. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: They weren't better. People forget the massive shift within 48 hrs for the 12/26/10 blizzard for example. I thought that one was lost OTS. But didn't the euro keep it? One model kept it.. they were still better back then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Talk about no change run to run lol. This hurts my soul 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I can practically hear snowman19's giddiness after seeing the Nam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago The soon to replace NAM (q2?) RRFS - Rapid Refresh Forecast System 1/24 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, Blizzardo said: But didn't the euro keep it? One model kept it.. they were still better back then.. No they all lost it 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, SnoSki14 said: I can practically hear snowman19's giddiness after seeing the Nam. Meh he had it not coming north 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: The soon to replace NAM (q2?) RRFS - Rapid Refresh Forecast System 1/24 00z That’s colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, SACRUS said: The soon to replace NAM (q2?) RRFS - Rapid Refresh Forecast System 1/24 00z That includes sleet. The WB maps show a disastrous outcome with sleet getting well north of I-80 and just 6” for the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Meh he had it not coming north 2 days ago Yeah so much for suppression fears Trough out west was a big red flag for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Talk about no change run to run lol. 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: This hurts my soul You ok? Icon added 3” for you in one run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, LVblizzard said: That includes sleet. The WB maps show a disastrous outcome with sleet getting well north of I-80 and just 6” for the city. It’s colder than it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Talk about no change run to run lol. consistency either means right or consistently lost lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago The other hi-res guidance seems to be better with the great front end thump. So the NAM is by itself so far with such a lame outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: No they all lost it 3 days out And the GFS was first to bring it back. For a time, it was the only model showing a big storm, but its solutions were dismissed on grounds that they were the result of initialization errors. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago You ok? Icon added 3” for you in one run. lol people see what they want to see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, jm1220 said: The other hi-res guidance seems to be better with the great front end thump. So the NAM is by itself so far with such a lame outcome. The NAM is totally out on its own. The other models are trending colder and snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago reggie? eedit/:::brrrrrr outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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