Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[weatherpruf]

Headlines and click bait sell... nothing is genuine in "journalism" anymore. 

We had a foot in cnj in feb 2024.


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[Wannabehippie]

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Decades? The record-setting January 22-23, 2016 blizzard was just over 10 years ago. The long-duration January 31-February 4, 2021 storm that brought 17.4" to NYC was just under 5 years ago. The Post would do well to consult weather information before writing its headlines.

I mean it is the NYP. Overhype is their MO.

[donsutherland1]

From WPC:

Probability of overall major storm impact:

Probability of major snowfall amount:

[eduggs]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

The rgem an CMC are always too amped an the Euro made a move to the GFS 2 runs in a row. The gfs ai an euro AI are almost nearly identical. An both bring a foot or more to the city. If the euro makes another move to the GFS tonight. You still gonna write it off?  I understand that the GFS could go back the other way. But it's been steady 

I like the AI models a lot for QPF distribution, but they don't resolve vertical temperature well at all so they are likely to significantly underestimate sleet. Just look at the NAM forecast soundings... there is a very pronounced warm layer between 700mb and 850mb. The AI models will not resolve that well. So it's not really correct to say that the models bring a foot to the City when they really only forecast QPF and temperature at a few layers. They don't forecast snow. 3rd party vendors do. And I am discounting the GFS since it has no support and has already shit the bed on several major events this year when it was a notable outlier. A slight shift north from the 18z position on the AI models could move the 4-6" range awfully close to Staten Island/Brooklyn etc.

[SI Mailman]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Wife is at Costco central nj. No milk or eggs left. A lot of other stuff gone too. She got the lactose free junk she drinks. Stuff always tastes like it’s sour. It’s panic time .


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The shop rite by me was mobbed and the shelves were empty.  Ended up going to Aldi and was able to get what I needed.  

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I like the AI models a lot for QPF distribution, but they don't resolve vertical temperature well at all so they are likely to significantly underestimate sleet. Just look at the NAM forecast soundings... there is a very pronounced warm layer between 700mb and 850mb. The AI models will not resolve that well. So it's not really correct to say that the models bring a foot to the City when they really only forecast QPF and temperature at a few layers. They don't forecast snow. 3rd party vendors do. And I am discounting the GFS since it has no support and has already shit the bed on several major events this year when it was a notable outlier. A slight shift north from the 18z position on the AI models could move the 4-6" range awfully close to Staten Island/Brooklyn etc.

You do realize the euro AI has been the #1 skilled model so far this winter correct? The euro isnt what it used to be. It folded like a cheap suit to the GFS just 5 days ago. Come on 

[NJwx85]

19 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Except for those no longer under development, every single model is better than it used to be. And compared to 10 years ago they are significantly better than they used to be. Personal feelings otherwise stem from various cognitive biases and being hyper focused on a localized area.

Yes, but the Euro used to be way ahead the rest of the pack so you could trust it more. I’m not arguing that model skill hasn’t improved, just that it’s harder to decipher what’s more correct at any given range, especially when the  differences between the GFS and Euro are significant. 
 

This particular setup though is much easier to handle than a miller A that we might get next week.

[EasternLI]

Just get that 850 low to transfer south of us. Cuts off the warming and keeps the moisture feed going. I'd like to see more of that on the 00z runs.

[weatherpruf]

The shop rite by me was mobbed and the shelves were empty.  Ended up going to Aldi and was able to get what I needed.  

Mayor of Piscataway going on channel 4 they are running out of salt.


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[kat5hurricane]

18 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Most of us are still right on the edge IMO. I disagree with the sentiment that today has seen positive trends. I'm encouraged by the stability of the AI models, but the UK, CMC/RGEM, ECM, and NAM have persistent mid-level lows that are right at the cusp of eating into snow totals with sleet. That really hasn't changed much since last night. I expect that future NAM runs will lead the way in terms of signalling how far advanced the warm nose gets. This could still be 4" or 18" at NYC.

There will be a wall of snow before any mixing even on the warmest models so I don't see any chance that anybody outside of south Jersey sees only 4". I think the floor for all of us is 6" and I think that might be too low. 6-8" minimum is the absolute floor and could be up 10-14" or maybe even more if the coastal really cranks but I just don't see anybody only getting 4".

[Wannabehippie]

Just now, SI Mailman said:

The shop rite by me was mobbed and the shelves were empty.  Ended up going to Aldi and was able to get what I needed.  

I am donating platelets on Saturday, going food shopping afterwards. May the force be with me.

 

[NYER72]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Mayor of Piscataway going on channel 4 they are running out of salt.


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the amount of salt being strewn around during recent events is obscene and unnecessary - especially in the city.

[Wannabehippie]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Mayor of Piscataway going on channel 4 they are running out of salt.


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Many cities cut back on the amount of salt they purchased after a series of below normal snowfall winters. Piscataway isn't the only city facing shortages. There is a mad scramble to get more now. Lots of competition for it, especially with the widespread ice storm predicted in the south.

 

[weatherpruf]

I am donating platelets on Saturday, going food shopping afterwards. May the force be with me.
 

Good on ya.


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[Prue11]

Seems like the heaviest snow isn’t going to arrive until mid to late morning 

[Tatamy]

8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Mayor of Piscataway going on channel 4 they are running out of salt.


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Stores out here have been out of deicing pellets for days now.

[Monty]

14 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

You do realize the euro AI has been the #1 skilled model so far this winter correct? The euro isnt what it used to be. It folded like a cheap suit to the GFS just 5 days ago. Come on 

What are the verification scores based upon? 

[TJW014]

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Mayor of Piscataway going on channel 4 they are running out of salt.


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Less salt, the better. Been running around doing water parameter checks in a bunch of tributaries in Ocean County for a term project. The conductivity and refractometer readings we've been seeing after salt gets laid down is disturbingly high.

[weatherpruf]

Less salt, the better. Been running around doing water parameter checks in a bunch of tributaries in Ocean County for a term project. The conductivity and refractometer readings we've been seeing after salt gets laid down is disturbingly high.

Are you in an environmental program… my son majored in ecology and works in wetlands.


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[weatherpruf]

Stores out here have been out of deicing pellets for days now.

I haven’t been out; Covid.


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[the_other_guy]

28 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Most of us are still right on the edge IMO. I disagree with the sentiment that today has seen positive trends. I'm encouraged by the stability of the AI models, but the UK, CMC/RGEM, ECM, and NAM have persistent mid-level lows that are right at the cusp of eating into snow totals with sleet. That really hasn't changed much since last night. I expect that future NAM runs will lead the way in terms of signalling how far advanced the warm nose gets. This could still be 4" or 18" at NYC.

On the edge of what?

What the heck are you talking about? Monster snowstorm headed right for you. Just enjoy it. I can’t even believe the stuff I’m reading in this forum.

You have 0 chance of waking up with 4 inches of snow on Monday morning.

This is supposed to be a scientific forum that looks at models and discusses them.

 

you have 1 inch to one and a half inches of precipitation moving into an airmass that is pure arctic.

Even if this forums wildest deranged fantasies come true of an all sleet fest you’re gonna have more than 4 inches crap on the ground when all is said and done.

 

A lot more. Step back from the imaginary cliff edge you and an echo chamber walked yourselves onto over the past 72 hours.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I haven’t been out; Covid.


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Get well soon. 

[SnowGoose69]

Right now I lean towards a 2/11/94 type result.  I think the sleet may make it to SI/S Bklyn and Queens at times and S shore of LI but I'd go with a forecast of all snow probably north of those areas.

[TJW014]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Are you in an environmental program… my son majored in ecology and works in wetlands.


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Yup. This was the project a group of us were given for the spring semester. I primarily would like to be focusing on barrier island ecology in the future.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Who will be the first to post “radar doesn’t look good, if it doesn’t fill in we are gonna bust low”

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Who will be the first to post “radar doesn’t look good, if it doesn’t fill in we are gonna bust low”

There’s going to a be a lot of pancaking on Sunday afternoon as the mix line advances.

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Who will be the first to post “radar doesn’t look good, if it doesn’t fill in we are gonna bust low”

One guess...

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

There’s going to a be a lot of pancaking on Sunday afternoon as the mix line advances.

if the mixing happens NYC and south. According to GFS New York doesn't change over at all!

[dmillz25]

Ahhhhh sleet is mixing in ahhhh lol

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, psv88 said:

One guess...

snowman19