Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Euro Ai is more gfs like than euro like fyi.


.

that's a great thing Euro AI is a good model probably the best i stand by it but maybe we're just going to get some sleet. But a 30 mile shift south could change the outcome to all snow. still another 72 hours until the first flakes come in. Plenty of time for that southern 30-40 mile shift! 

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I don't think anyone outside of NCEP can answer that, as one has no comparison to a control case (the model solutions without the additional data). 

Another flight is scheduled for 1/23 0z.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211739
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1240 PM EST WED 21 JANUARY 2026
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JANUARY 2026
         WSPOD NUMBER.....25-052 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
       A. 23/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 03WSA TRACK66
       C. 22/2015Z
       D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK BEGINNING WITH DROP POINT 3    
          AND ENDING WITH DROP POINT 2.
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 22/2030Z TO 23/0230Z.

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSION ALONG TRACK 66 
       FOR 24/0000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75
       A. 23/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 12WSE IOP11
       C. 22/1830Z
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED 
          BY: 35.0N 130.0W, 35.0N 110.0W, 15.0N 110.0W, 
          AND 15.0N 130.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 22/2030Z TO 23/0230Z

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY AN 
       ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE 
       24/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
    3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: TWO USAF WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY 
       ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
       PACIFIC FOR THE 25/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

Paul Dorian of Arcfield Weather just mentioned that this new data won't be in the model runs till 12Z today.

 

[SnoSki14]

46 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We all know the tendency for these to trend north over time. 

Yes but we do have an anchored and very strong Arctic high in place. Hence why highs will be in the teens on Sunday 

[Brian5671]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not in every case especially with very cold air in place before the storm.

Its the mid levels.  Those will warm-it's just a matter of when.   

[Brian5671]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Yes but we do have an anchored and very strong Arctic high in place. Hence why highs will be in the teens on Sunday 

that's great but it's the mid levels that matter.  No one is raining.   Surface will be plenty cold.

[Nibor]

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

that's great but it's the mid levels that matter.  No one is raining.   Surface will be plenty cold.

GFS is all snow, and if we could push the other guidance 30-40 miles south we're good to go!

[mob1]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

that's great but it's the mid levels that matter.  No one is raining.   Surface will be plenty cold.

The V-day sleetfest (still my favorite sleet storm ever) had temps in the teens and low 20s and a storng high anchored upstate. A mid level warmth push can happen regardless of the surface depiction, happens here all the time.

[Jt17]

Looks colder and snowier to me than the OP.


.

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Its the mid levels.  Those will warm-it's just a matter of when.   

why and where ? and what evidence do you have to back up that statement  other than warm model runs 3 days in advance of the storm ?

[Snowlover11]

25 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Any chance we can get 10" before the sleet starts in nyc?

A decent chance, if guidance holds as is, definitely a 60%+

[weathermedic]

6 minutes ago, mob1 said:

The V-day sleetfest (still my favorite sleet storm ever) had temps in the teens and low 20s and a storng high anchored upstate. A mid level warmth push can happen regardless of the surface depiction, happens here all the time.

I remember in 1994 there was moderate to heavy rain for a good part of the day with temps in the low 20s

[SACRUS]

 

EPS lp mean

 

 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

EPS lp mean

 

 

if the low transfers to the coast that far south we will have all snow IMO

[SACRUS]

 

EPS mean 850 MB

 

 

 

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

if the low transfers to the coast that far south we will have all snow IMO

And if that happens we probably dont dryslot and the whole area stays all snow like you said 

[MJO812]

NBC lol

[the_other_guy]

12 minutes ago, mob1 said:

The V-day sleetfest (still my favorite sleet storm ever) had temps in the teens and low 20s and a storng high anchored upstate. A mid level warmth push can happen regardless of the surface depiction, happens here all the time.

28F thru storm in NYC. Much warmer than this storm. Much

[WeatherGeek2025]

Stole this from NE @WeatherWillynot sure how accurate this model is NBM

[the_other_guy]

Just now, MJO812 said:

NBC lol

Dude thats legit.

 

I never saw a forum like this. An Echo Chamber of wishcasting that never comes to be; and then theres a legit storm and the same people are talking themselves out of a storm.

You, who are continually measuring snow in a rain storm have a legit major snowstorm inbound. Just enjoy it and stop second guessing it

[mob1]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Stole this from NE @WeatherWillynot sure how accurate this model is NBM

It's just a blend of all models 

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

And if that happens we probably dont dryslot and the whole area stays all snow like you said 

let's be realistic here for once the  that i am wants to believe that but when models show that warm nose aloft, forget we will change to sleet from yorktown and south! Look for a trend that could push that warm nose down to let's say staten island or whatever. and boom we will all be happy. It could happen you want an earlier south transfer and you want that coastal to crank, that thing is a pos right now 1004 millibar low very weak at this time as it is being depicted. You want some type of 996 or lower for a chance to actually cool down those columns really quick and not have that warm nose creep north any further!

[Rjay]

15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

why and where ? and what evidence do you have to back up that statement  other than warm model runs 3 days in advance of the storm ?

The models...

[CentralNJSnowman]

4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

It's just a blend of all models 

I think it also attempts to adjust for model biases.  That has to be the reason why the blend is currently higher than any of the models that it’s blending.  
 

there was a slightly confusing post in the mid Atlantic sub forum that suggested that a few recent high ratio storms that were positive busts account for the strong positive adjustment that it’s clearly making here

[SACRUS]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Stole this from NE @WeatherWillynot sure how accurate this model is NBM

From my review the NBM

 

General weighting philosophy

Time RangeHeavier Weight

0–24hHRRR, RAP, obs

24–48hNAM, HRRR, HREF

48–72hNAM + globals

3–5 daysEuro, CMC, ensembles

5–7 daysEnsembles dominate

It’s NOAA/NWS’s official blended forecast system, designed to combine many models, ensembles, and observations into a single, statistically optimized forecast for sensible weather (temps, precip, wind, snow, etc.).

 

What goes into the NBM (Inputs)?

Global Models

• ECMWF (Euro)

• GFS

• CMC (GGEM)

• UKMET

• ICON (limited elements)

Ensembles

• EPS

• GEFS

• GEPS

• HREF (short range)

Regional / Mesoscale

• HRRR

• NAM / NAM-Nest

• RAP

• RGEM

Observations & Post-Processing

• Surface observations

• Climatology

• MOS-style bias correction

• Downscaling to fine grids (~2.5 km)

[jconsor]

10 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Stole this from NE @WeatherWillynot sure how accurate this model is NBM

The NBM you posted seems to be using inflated snow-liquid ratios.  Compare the NBM version 5 (experimental) with the 4.3 (operational), the same as what you posted.  The experimental version 5 snowfall amounts make more sense given the model QPF.

[NJwx85]

I like my spot for this one in Rockland County. I also have a hard time believing the sleet mixes into NYC for a significant amount or time.

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It’s really not overly complicated, if we have a strong 700/850 low go NW of us, we will mix eventually-plain and simple. That means the winds at those levels are from the south and a warm direction. It doesn’t matter that the surface is cold. We could have a lot of snow fall before then but the same mechanism driving all the moisture from the Gulf also brings warm air. If the snow comes in like a wall it helps hold the warm mid level air back and we can pile it up quickly, if it comes in like shredded garbage it will disappoint and we get sleet sooner. We could also dry slot before or as that warm air arrives since dry air will pivot around the mid level lows from the south. We need the mid level confluence to force a further south transfer. If se see that retreating we have a typical SWFE setup. There’s the other possibility of a coastal system bringing snow back in but I think that won’t be determined until we’re closer in.

One of the top 10 posts in this thread.  100%.

Where the secondary develops, how it tracks and how fast it can potentially halt the mid level warming will be important to duration of event and how much snow might fall after the mix perhaps goes back to snow.  Ideally this low will develop off the VA/DE coast and move towards Nantucket and Block Island gradually deepening as it goes.  This might be asking a lot though.  We'll see.  Either way there will be a good dump of snow and sleet to ice it up.  The snow pack will not be going anywhere anytime soon.  At this point, pending future model runs I'm expecting sleet to get mixed in as far north as my area.

Just don't like it when the 700/850 are so far NW, at least initially.

[bluewave]

Good signal from the 6z Euro for at least a 6-8” floor around NYC and LI before any sleet potential later Sunday using conservative 10-1 ratios which could be on the low side.

 

[donsutherland1]

For reference concerning snow-liquid ratios with storms that had 1"-2" QPF, as currently shown on the NBM:

So, assuming a ratio of 11:1-13:1 during the height of the storm (0.50"-0.75" QPF), NYC seems in very good shape to see at least 6" of snow and well-positioned for even higher amounts, even if sleet mixes in or a transition to sleet occurs. This storm remains on track to be the biggest storm New York City has seen in nearly 4-5 years.