January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[IUsedToHateCold]

Based upon the snow climo around here, the Euro map looks pretty close to what I think will happen. NW of DC get 20+, my yard gets 12-14 with rime on top. I think high end we bump those totals up to 6 inches, low end we take 6 away and add a lot more sleet. I think higher end is more likely, but we'll probably end up close to the middle. 

Considering we haven't had an event like this in 10 years, just book it. 

[wxmeddler]

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. 

"I'd rather be in Chicago" 

[umdterps29]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey--the past 7 or 8 years it’s been the opposite. Those of us North and NW of you has been getting skunked with fringe jobs while the southern half of the forum cashes in! It balances out after awhile--and this outcome feels more typical with climo!

I lived in Baltimore from summer of 2016 until 2022. Trust me, I have been through the slump on both ends

[WxMan1]

4 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

The cold surface temps will inhibit the melting, we don't need ice for that. The sleet and ZR will compact everything. We can't act like it won't be a kick in the gut to see locations 30 miles to our NW get 18 inches of snow while we get 6 and ice

I honestly don't see us getting that much sleet or freezing drizzle (yes I think it would be more drizzle than FZRA, given the lack of ice nuclei) -- I see us here east of I-95 going over to a mainly light mix by Sunday afternoon. Maybe not a dry slot, but not a lot of accumulating sleet and/or ice either. Certainly not enough to compact 6-10+ inches of snow. I live in Crofton (central AA County) and have always expected areas N-W doing better with amped up systems. It happens...it's climo. Feb 12 2014, Jan 24-25 2016, etc. Honestly, we folks south and east have gotten the bullseye more often than not the last few years--we've been long overdue for a climo distribution. Not a kick in the gut at all, believe me. Certainly not when I'm shoveling -- I'm not gonna regret not getting more at that point!

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

That is a VERY fast switch over to sleet/ice for east of 95. Not much time to thump before that. This is going to be depressing  to watch the NW posters get slammed while I wind up with 4 inches and a boatload of sleet

Moderate snow moves into the Annapolis area around 6z and mixing doesn't really become an issue until 15z.  That is 9 hours of snow before you lose mid level thermals.  

[nw baltimore wx]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn, they moved i-95 through Upper Marlboro and told no one.  What kind of sorcery is this?

My childhood stomping grounds!

 

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's still uncomfy for you guys, but i still think most of the damage is done before any mixing... nobody should be complaining about 8" of snow in like 4 hours followed by some mix. if the mix does end up occurring at all

Yea, you don't know us well.

[EHoffman]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

exactly, the WAA is insane and i find it hard to believe you guys do without sig snowfall. it's just so cold going in and the 700mb FGEN will be off the charts

We always overperform these setups I feel like.  This is quite literally our bread and butter for stacking snow in DC.  I don't even care about the mixing at the end honestly.

[Jebman]

4 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Based upon the snow climo around here, the Euro map looks pretty close to what I think will happen. NW of DC get 20+, my yard gets 12-14 with rime on top. I think high end we bump those totals up to 6 inches, low end we take 6 away and add a lot more sleet. I think higher end is more likely, but we'll probably end up close to the middle. 

Considering we haven't had an event like this in 10 years, just book it. 

Years of living in the DC Metro Region bears that out. Most of the time, you take the highest model output for snow and half it. It doesn't feel good, it isn't comfy and you all know I want you guys to all get 20 inches with this.

That FGEN makes me feel like I just won 7.5 billion dollars in the Mega though. Someone is gonna get clobbered with ridiculous snows.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. 

"I'd rather be in Chicago" 

Yup. He's been very vocal about the primary low running too far north and ruining things for Baltimore and points south. I hope he's wrong.

[stormtracker]

So wait...one thing we're not talking enough about is the temps.  I'm going over the Euro and I need to make sure I'm reading this right...temps don't look to get above freezing at all the next week?

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Sure, why not

Your standard 10/-11F day in DC as forecast by the 12z Euro. Call me skeptical but I don't think we'll see DC's 3rd ever subzero daily average.

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. 

"I'd rather be in Chicago" 

Man ain't this some random shit in the middle of snow hunt

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. 

"I'd rather be in Chicago" 

Well that is certainly disheartening. 

[catoctin wx]

11 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Looks like Frederick has an opportunity to make up ground from the last few years. Curious where in MoCo will be the dividing line. Seems like Gaithersburg to Columbia is often times the battleground for these fall line setups.

It's been bleak...

[WxUSAF]

Trying to figure EPS on Pivotal. Generally looks really good. Less amped than Op. Comparing to 0z looks a bit drier and flatter. On the mean probably stays all snow for DC and N/W? It’s close.

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

We always overperform these setups I feel like.  This is quite literally our bread and butter for stacking snow in DC.  I don't even care about the mixing at the end honestly.

THIS.   I don't get the eeyoreing.  At least not yet.

[MillvilleWx]

Looking at everything, I think some here are really hung up on the sleet mixing and not enough on the absolute drubbing that WAA pattern is going to bring for the thump up front. This is a setup that can rival the Feb 2014 thump in places. The initial 4hrs when snow becomes heavy too will be big beautiful dendrites in the stronger bands. 1-2”/hr rates likely with some bands >2”/hr considering the strength and depth of the FGEN and DGZ, respectively. 
 

If you can remember 2014, there was 2’ of snow in Mt. Airy and not a single model showed that until it basically on top of us. Use climo, know your area for who usually hangs on to snow the longest. This will be a crazy beatdown prior to any flip. Lowlands will mix, metros will mix, eastern shore will mix, and mix will likely make it to I-70….it is what it is. It’s the nature of an upper pattern closing off west of where we want it. However, the snow will come in hot and heavy and last for a while to bring in some great totals, the biggest of which some have seen in a decade. 
 

Thermals will be situated as we get into Friday and the NAM Nest comes into line. That’s the model I want to see. That piece of guidance usually sucks, but it does do well at showing the thermal progression while sucking otherwise. It’s gonna snow y’all!! 
 

As for Southwest VA, it sucks this shift happened so abruptly. I wasn’t anticipating THIS much of a shift, but there will be some heavy heavy snow upfront before driving sleet. It will be a high impact scenario for so many. And the cold afterwards is NO JOKE!! This isn’t going anywhere. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. 

"I'd rather be in Chicago" 

I definitely am more worried about over amped than suppressed BUT that seems a bit of an exaggeration.  Chicago has a 1045 high right over it as the system is organizing to the south in just 60 hours...that would take a pretty freaking radical failure (models are much better inside 100 hours than they used to be) for this to end up THAT much further NW than say the GGEM run this morning.  

The mid level track is troubling...but we've seen things offset that before...look at last February when the upper level trough was back over OHIO and the VA capes got a big snowstorm.  There is an arctic high in the way here and a 50/50 with a TPV lobe right over us as the system starts to develop, that does change the equation somewhat.  

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So wait...one thing we're not talking enough about is the temps.  I'm going over the Euro and I need to make sure I'm reading this right...temps don't look to get above freezing at all the next week?

I mentioned that yesterday.  To me that's a bigger anomaly than the snow.  

[bncho]

BAM thinks the CMC and UK are off their rockers.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So wait...one thing we're not talking enough about is the temps.  I'm going over the Euro and I need to make sure I'm reading this right...temps don't look to get above freezing at all the next week?

Correct. It's an insane run temp wise.

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. 

"I'd rather be in Chicago" 

Don't even know what you are supposed to do with this given no guidance really shows that outcome and all the experts at NWS/WPC/anyone everywhere seem to think the entire eastern seaboard is gonna get impacted. Guess we hope he's off his game.

[EHoffman]

7 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. 

"I'd rather be in Chicago" 

I can't figure out if this post is a troll or not.

[nw baltimore wx]

To this day, I still don't know what or who BAM is.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Correct. It's an insane run temp wise.

Not if your boy is right. Temps would blast into the 40s/50s 

[Nomz]

Also, we're still in the range that this could substantially shift in any direction. Could move 100 miles north, could move 100 miles south. We thought we were sitting pretty yesterday, but the mix line moved north 150 miles. Not a guarantee that it will keep moving north, stop, or windshield wiper back south.

[high risk]

quick NBM comment:  thrilled to see lots of NBM images, but it should be noted that the parallel NBM is about 3-5" lower with snow totals in the local area.   The issue is that the QPF feeding into the winter suite is bias-corrected based on the forecasts and observations over the past 3 months, and it has been very dry here.   As a result of the training sample having few high QPF events, the bias correction breaks down a bit, and for this case, it is boosting the already high QPF amounts even higher.   The parallel has some changes to prevent seeing this as an extreme event, and it is not adjusting the QPF upwards like the ops.   To be clear, the para still has a major event for us, as it should;  it's just not in the HECS category.  

[MillvilleWx]

7 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. 

"I'd rather be in Chicago" 

I like Louis as a person and as a winter mind, but I think he needs to lay off the hard liquor. There isn’t a single model that is that route and there won’t be. Not sure why he said that. Need a full phase over the Four Corners for that. 

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Looking at everything, I think some here are really hung up on the sleet mixing and not enough on the absolute drubbing that WAA pattern is going to bring for the thump up front. This is a setup that can rival the Feb 2014 thump in places. The initial 4hrs when snow becomes heavy too will be big beautiful dendrites in the stronger bands. 1-2”/hr rates likely with some bands >2”/hr considering the strength and depth of the FGEN and DGZ, respectively. 
 

If you can remember 2014, there was 2’ of snow in Mt. Airy and not a single model showed that until it basically on top of us. Use climo, know your area for who usually hangs on to snow the longest. This will be a crazy beatdown prior to any flip. Lowlands will mix, metros will mix, eastern shore will mix, and mix will likely make it to I-70….it is what it is. It’s the nature of an upper pattern closing off west of where we want it. However, the snow will come in hot and heavy and last for a while to bring in some great totals, the biggest of which some have seen in a decade. 
 

Thermals will be situated as we get into Friday and the NAM Nest comes into line. That’s the model I want to see. That piece of guidance usually sucks, but it does do well at showing the thermal progression while sucking otherwise. It’s gonna snow y’all!! 
 

As for Southwest VA, it sucks this shift happened so abruptly. I wasn’t anticipating THIS much of a shift, but there will be some heavy heavy snow upfront before driving sleet. It will be a high impact scenario for so many. And the cold afterwards is NO JOKE!! This isn’t going anywhere. 

Can you go convince Louis now please

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Don't even know what you are supposed to do with this given no guidance really shows that outcome and all the experts at NWS/WPC/anyone everywhere seem to think the entire eastern seaboard is gonna get impacted. Guess we hope he's off his game.

They may be predicting a potential rug pull scenario. Though time is running out to model it.