January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, Pityflakes said:

Seriously how could we fail at this point?  Nine times of of ten we fail because of BL temps/sun angle/rates/DST/lack of moisture.  Here we have mega cold (up to 750mb) and moisture transport galore.  The other times we fail because we're relying on a coastal that just doesn't get its act together in time or is shunted south at the last minute.  No so here we are 6-12 before the coastal really gets going.  

The storm gets way amped and cuts harder... We can do it.. Do not think we cannot fail. Ever. We have before and we can do it again 

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Wait, a primary into Wheeling, WV isn't a good thing?

I like my sleet and rain with a coating of coal dust, thanks  

[NorthArlington101]

The CMC is not a disaster... we don't like the trend but you'd think it just gave us 0" and not a forum-wide 8-12"+

[winter_warlock]

Cmc brings everyone back down to earth .  Lord I hope the CMC is an outlier

[Warm Nose]

CMC:

[Quasievil]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The CMC is not a disaster... we don't like the trend but you'd think it just gave us 0" and not a forum-wide 8-12"+

It's a fair point but it's not a good trend

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The CMC is not a disaster... we don't like the trend but you'd think it just gave us 0" and not a forum-wide 8-12"+

It’s pretty ugly 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

Well goddamn CMC.  I mean thats about as opposite a solution as the crazy ass drunk GFS was showing with suppression the other day.  Sad thing is that you can't discount because it is a model that gets weighted.  I just hope its a burp and similar to its tropical bias with Katrinas up the Chessie every summer.  

I do remember other times when the Canadian was too amped with stuff...so let's hope that's the case this time. BUT 8-12" then sleet as a fail scenario? Would still be my biggest snowfall in 10 years so that ain't too bad, lol

[hstorm]

[baltosquid]

Okay look I might not know enough to call bullshit, but I am gonna. Is the CMC really going to have a stronger high, with a low starting further south, a tick weaker (1006 vs 1005 at hr96) that just launches itself head first into said high, with no inclination to pop a coastal whatsoever??

[Terpeast]

Model reshuffling in progress. At least CMC gives us 10" before topping off as sleet. If that's the "worst" case scenario, well...

[North Balti Zen]

14 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

Yup and everyone hugging it now lmao

No one is hugging it - it is now more in line with (checks notes) EVERY OTHER piece of guidance. When it did that weirdness yesterday it was out on an island.  It literally had ZERO precip when no other guidance was remotely close to that. Just saying. 

[BristowWx]

15 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

GFS snows for like 30hrs in the DMV

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk
 

Holy hell!

[ravensrule]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

It’s pretty ugly 

I'll say it again, it's the CMC. If the Euro shows this then you can get nervous. 

[bncho]

IMO the CMC shows us how hard it is to fail. 8-12" even in that scenario

[hstorm]

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

So those keeping score of the operational models at 12z for DC:

ICON: All snow 10 ish inches

GFS: All snow 12-18 inches

CMC: Snow to Ice 10 ish inches

UNCLE UKIE: TBD

Dr. No: TBD

 

[psuhoffman]

This GGEM run is pretty close to what I see as the worst case scenario, but yes it's a realistic option...it's also showing 6"+ of snow followed by a lot of sleet which is not a bad event, if we don't start expecting HECS level snow when were still 4 days away.  

[Terpeast]

That being said, I don't think the CMC is right in driving that strong low into the OHV with an arctic airmass in place like that.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Wait, a primary into Wheeling, WV isn't a good thing?

What happened to the juiced up wave cold powder overrunning event with a wall of HP to the north? This is evolving into something else on latest runs and I'm not sure I like it as much lol. GFS is still fine other than it places a precip minimum over my yard.

[jwLwx]

One run, from one model, is suddenly a trend? 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

What happened to the juiced up wave cold powder overrunning event with a wall of HP to the north? This is evolving into something else on latest runs and I'm not sure I like it as much lol. GFS is still fine other than it places a precip minimum over my yard.

Yeah, seems like we're dealing with a whole different animal.  Remember when we were worried about suppression?  

[T. August]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The CMC is not a disaster... we don't like the trend but you'd think it just gave us 0" and not a forum-wide 8-12"+

In DC it’s workable but anywhere north, the warmth outraces the precip. Still waiting on final maps but I’d say north of Baltimore is 5-6” at 10:1 (which honestly they might be lower ratios).

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

I'll say it again, it's the CMC. If the Euro shows this then you can get nervous. 

I’m just saying the run itself. I don’t believe it. It’s probably dining it’s over amp bs like when it shows us getting 40” from coastals. 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That being said, I don't think the CMC is right in driving that strong low into the OHV with an arctic airmass in place like that.

That's what I was saying. A banana 1040mb+ HP dome being driven into by a low thats not even sub 1000mb? Unlikely. 

[caviman2201]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This GGEM run is pretty close to what I see as the worst case scenario, but yes it's a realistic option...it's also showing 6"+ of snow followed by a lot of sleet which is not a bad event, if we don't start expecting HECS level snow when were still 4 days away.  

Do you expect this to be a 'models meet in the middle' type of thing or an either/or type of thing?

[WesternFringe]

3 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

It's a fair point but it's not a good trend

One data point isn't a trend yet

[clskinsfan]

How is the Canadian is cutting into that banana high? I dont understand anything anymore. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, T. August said:

In DC it’s workable but anywhere north, the warmth outraces the precip. Still waiting on final maps but I’d say north of Baltimore is 5-6” at 10:1 (which honestly they might be lower ratios).

\

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, jwLwx said:

One run, from one model, is suddenly a trend? 

This is not a one run trend. The cutting primary sleet icy look showed up in 0z runs last night