January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

@36 the large lobe of energy north of MN/WI seems to be having an effect here. More pronounced with strength and progression on kinking southwest. Curious how it will relate downstream.

I was referring to how slow the model was running. Havent even looked at any of the plots yet

[Weather Will]

One of the things we don't have to worry about is a strong arctic high pressure being firmly established.  It will Not be bullied easily. WB 12K NAM still showing high building in on schedule.

[nw baltimore wx]

It's been said, but this part of this morning's AFD is what I'll be thinking about through today's model runs.

"With the parent features still across the more barren high latitudes, models may take another day or two to resolve such features with better precision (note: recon flights are expected to take place near the Southwest CONUS later today - that`s where models have been most sensitive to changes"

[TomAtkins]

59 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

If there's 12" on the ground and you dump another 2" of sleet on top, what difference does it make? It's like syrup on an ice cream sundae.

Thats basically what we got in the Storm of the Century in 1993. Obviously a different setup, but similar brutal cold temps the following days too - made sledding quite treacherous and shoveling tedious.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Taking a quick peek a the 12k NAM for the 12z run, the high coming out of Canada appears stronger? Looks like 1054mb+. Not sure what, if any downstream implications this would have.

[yoda]

12z NAM h5 54

 

[stormtracker]

Still in the damn Metro.  16 minute headways on a work morning is insane.   Anyway, trying to do model comparisons on a phone is the devil.  Anybody got any comps on 6z NAM and 12z? 

[Wonderdog]

16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Few days.  It’s hard to wrap our heads around things coming together.  Doesn’t happen that often.  The obs thread will be poppin’ soon

You'll never change. Calm down. This is an easy one. The cold is locked in. The storm is coming in from the SW and the HP will retreat to the north allowing the coastal  LP to bomb out, maybe.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Still in the damn Metro.  16 minute headways on a work morning is insane.   Anyway, trying to do model comparisons on a phone is the devil.  Anybody got any comps on 6z NAM and 12z? 

Nam @54 seems to want to interact with baja energy and a taller ridge out west but the confluence in the midwest also looks stronger so not sure we have much to go off of yet.

[TSSN+]

That Baja wave is rippin at hour 63. One thing to say is this thing will have some juice. 

[yoda]

72 h5 12z NAM 

 

78 h5 6z NAM

 

[feloniousq]

CWG is still saying just a “60-70% chance of 6 inches or more” on Twitter


.

[TSSN+]

Just now, yoda said:

72 h5 12z NAM 

 

Looks amped 

[weathercoins]

NAM about to show quite a storm 

[LP08]

NAM very amped with much more interaction out west than 6z.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

NAM much more phased than the 6z GFS fwiw

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, weathercoins said:

NAM about to show quite a storm 

We expect nothing less. This is its swan song before the plug gets pulled, no?

[Buddy1987]

Yes at 72 it's going the wrong way. Heights rising pretty drastically. Precip delayed as well. HP slightly stronger over WI compared to MN at 6z. Not much bearing there.

[yoda]

 

[WxUSAF]

NAM more phased than6z euro at 72 hours. NAM gonna NAM?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

 

Intial thump would be bigly 

[yoda]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

NAM more phased than6z euro at 72 hours. NAM gonna NAM?

 

[LP08]

Maybe a positive to the amped solutions is we absolutely get the meat of the overunning before any change over occurs.

[clskinsfan]

Its amped for sure. Sub 1000 in CO. First flakes out this way Saturday afternoon. Was lining us up for a pummeling. 

[snowfan]

5 minutes ago, feloniousq said:

CWG is still saying just a “60-70% chance of 6 inches or more” on Twitter


.

I love giving them crap but we are 3.5 days from kickoff and a lot can change. 60-70% at this range is healthy. 

[Solution Man]

7pmish Saturday start time

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

1042mb High pressure in NY state when the precip starts is insane! 

[jayyy]

NAM was about to be hellacious thump

[RevWarReenactor]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

That would most likely put a ton of mixing issues into the I-95 cities if you extrapolate it. 

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, feloniousq said:

CWG is still saying just a “60-70% chance of 6 inches or more” on Twitter


.

so almost a 50% chance of a just nominal 3-5? interesting