clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: @36 the large lobe of energy north of MN/WI seems to be having an effect here. More pronounced with strength and progression on kinking southwest. Curious how it will relate downstream. I was referring to how slow the model was running. Havent even looked at any of the plots yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 One of the things we don't have to worry about is a strong arctic high pressure being firmly established. It will Not be bullied easily. WB 12K NAM still showing high building in on schedule. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 It's been said, but this part of this morning's AFD is what I'll be thinking about through today's model runs. "With the parent features still across the more barren high latitudes, models may take another day or two to resolve such features with better precision (note: recon flights are expected to take place near the Southwest CONUS later today - that`s where models have been most sensitive to changes" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomAtkins Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 59 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: If there's 12" on the ground and you dump another 2" of sleet on top, what difference does it make? It's like syrup on an ice cream sundae. Thats basically what we got in the Storm of the Century in 1993. Obviously a different setup, but similar brutal cold temps the following days too - made sledding quite treacherous and shoveling tedious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Taking a quick peek a the 12k NAM for the 12z run, the high coming out of Canada appears stronger? Looks like 1054mb+. Not sure what, if any downstream implications this would have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 12z NAM h5 54 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Still in the damn Metro. 16 minute headways on a work morning is insane. Anyway, trying to do model comparisons on a phone is the devil. Anybody got any comps on 6z NAM and 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 16 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Few days. It’s hard to wrap our heads around things coming together. Doesn’t happen that often. The obs thread will be poppin’ soon You'll never change. Calm down. This is an easy one. The cold is locked in. The storm is coming in from the SW and the HP will retreat to the north allowing the coastal LP to bomb out, maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Still in the damn Metro. 16 minute headways on a work morning is insane. Anyway, trying to do model comparisons on a phone is the devil. Anybody got any comps on 6z NAM and 12z? Nam @54 seems to want to interact with baja energy and a taller ridge out west but the confluence in the midwest also looks stronger so not sure we have much to go off of yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 That Baja wave is rippin at hour 63. One thing to say is this thing will have some juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 72 h5 12z NAM 78 h5 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 CWG is still saying just a “60-70% chance of 6 inches or more” on Twitter . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, yoda said: 72 h5 12z NAM Looks amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 NAM about to show quite a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 NAM very amped with much more interaction out west than 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 NAM much more phased than the 6z GFS fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, weathercoins said: NAM about to show quite a storm We expect nothing less. This is its swan song before the plug gets pulled, no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Yes at 72 it's going the wrong way. Heights rising pretty drastically. Precip delayed as well. HP slightly stronger over WI compared to MN at 6z. Not much bearing there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 NAM more phased than6z euro at 72 hours. NAM gonna NAM? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, yoda said: Intial thump would be bigly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, WxUSAF said: NAM more phased than6z euro at 72 hours. NAM gonna NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Maybe a positive to the amped solutions is we absolutely get the meat of the overunning before any change over occurs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Its amped for sure. Sub 1000 in CO. First flakes out this way Saturday afternoon. Was lining us up for a pummeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, feloniousq said: CWG is still saying just a “60-70% chance of 6 inches or more” on Twitter . I love giving them crap but we are 3.5 days from kickoff and a lot can change. 60-70% at this range is healthy. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7pmish Saturday start time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 1042mb High pressure in NY state when the precip starts is insane! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 NAM was about to be hellacious thump 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, yoda said: That would most likely put a ton of mixing issues into the I-95 cities if you extrapolate it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, feloniousq said: CWG is still saying just a “60-70% chance of 6 inches or more” on Twitter . so almost a 50% chance of a just nominal 3-5? interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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