baltosquid Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I posted earlier the 6z GGEM was colder at 84hrs vs 90hrs at 0z, so they're consistent. Also RGEM definitely slower with the Baja piece. Way too much heartburn over 06z. It was a much more skeptical set of runs concerning a phase. Also watch the flow out front… it seems like it wants to angle down, more northwesterly than southwesterly across guidance. That kind of suppressive look will also be super helpful to keep this thing pinned. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, H2O said: We are now into the debate over watches and what kind and timing and who gets a WSW vs a WWA? #toosoon My question. When will they issue the flood watch for Georgetown? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 11 minutes ago, H2O said: We are now into the debate over watches and what kind and timing and who gets a WSW vs a WWA? #toosoon They may eventually issue some blizzard warnings if that High pressure stays so strong to the north. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 NAM running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, H2O said: We are now into the debate over watches and what kind and timing and who gets a WSW vs a WWA? #toosoon Damn. I thought the WSW debates would have waited to 18z at least. Guess we starting Christmas decorations right after the 4th of July here too. 2 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: FWIW, we’re in that range where EuroAI has been deadly and I think pretty much our entire sub would sign up for its 6z in a hot minute. I do think with the past weekend small event the AIs (both of them) tended to overdo the NW trend a bit before backing off to a middle ground. So if that is something they repeat, would be excellent. Obviously on a much different scale… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 9z SREF 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 9z SREF Ah yes I love the ncep maps from the civil war era 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Like others are saying, if we can lock in an incredible front-end thump of 10-15” region-wide with 2”/hr rates, I don’t really care if it mixes after the fact. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, Scraff said: My question. When will they issue the flood watch for Georgetown? They should raise the flood gates in preparation 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Damn. I thought the WSW debates would have waited to 18z at least. Guess we starting Christmas decorations right after the 4th of July here too. Don't need to put them up if you never take them down. 28.6/14 and full sun Where's the obs thread? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Good morning. Kept my forecast for DC at 4-8+ for now. Probably gonna revise up to 6-10 if the 12z suite doesn’t move much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 This is what model watching is all about folks. We can't expect clean model runs from now until Saturday. In any event, remember this - no one really cares if you switch to sleet if you're staring at a foot of snow. These robust systems tend to do that anyway given their dynamic nature. We can start to panic a bit if the LOW ends up in PA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Nomz said: Good morning. Kept my forecast for DC at 4-8+ for now. Probably gonna revise up to 6-10 if the 12z suite doesn’t move much. I'll admit you lost me as you've given us quite a bit to digest there. Gonna need a minute. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I feel like the recon data ingest is the last point where this can fail. If we get good modeling on the energy coming on shore and we're still good, then it's all systems go. I feel like the solutions where we flip to sleet in the east/southeast are probably right based upon past storms. I'd say the majority of major storms since I moved to the area in 2011 have been that way. If that doesn't happen we're probably ending up with less overall QPF as we end up with a weaker coastal or none at all. So it's like 10-14 inches or 14-20 inches plus sleet. I'll take the sleet any day. It's a good chance to go out and shovel since it doesn't accumulate fast and you can put salt down to melt it easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Going to put my heat mats out today. Hopefully won't jinx things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 15 hours ago, BristowWx said: There you are…Jesus I was getting nervous Don't get nervous. We're still days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 FWIW FV3 run seems to hang the Baja low back a tad thru hr30, bit more separation from the NS… yes this is a very premature read! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Growing up in Silver Spring, sleet was usually the price to be paid for a juiced up EC storm. Less worried about that scenario in Frederick (unless this system cuts like Feb 94) and looks like everyone closer to the fall line gets an overrunning thump anyway. We’re in the Euro’s money range. Today’s runs will be important. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Going to put my heat mats out today. Hopefully won't jinx things... WTF? Are you trying to make it sleet!? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 12 minutes ago, T. August said: Like others are saying, if we can lock in an incredible front-end thump of 10-15” region-wide with 2”/hr rates, I don’t really care if it mixes after the fact. No... pure powder is the only thing for me.. I do care... I would care less.. but still care 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 32 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Aldie basically said it but LWX pushed their updates to the maps… That's pretty impressive considering how conservative they typically are. The big storm that went south last year didn't have this type of confidence (at any point.) I guess we've been burned so many times that I'm not sure how to handle what's happening. There's a unicorn appearing before my very eyes and I'm not sure how to interpret it lol. Sterling NWS / LWX AFD - https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off In a multi- day sense, global ensemble probabilities remain very high for seeing 6+ inches of snow. This comes with the presumed snow- to-liquid ratio of 10:1 which this system will not be given the Arctic nature of the air mass. Ratios could be considerably higher yielding a fluffier snow. With the parent features still across the more barren high latitudes, models may take another day or two to resolve such features with better precision (note: recon flights are expected to take place near the Southwest CONUS later today - that`s where models have been most sensitive to changes, so hopefully this additional data will help hone in on details). The details will be important in determining any precipitation type transitions. However, given the very cold air locked in at and near the surface with strong Arctic high pressure anchored firmly to our north, plain rain is highly unlikely anywhere in the region. It will therefore come down to snow versus ice, both of which could be significant and highly impactful across a widespread area. . KEY MESSAGE 2...Frigid temperatures are looking like a virtual certainty this weekend into early next week. As mentioned in the winter storm section, Arctic high pressure takes charge over the weekend which yields frigid temperatures across the area. On Saturday, forecast 850-mb temperatures range from -15 to as low as -20C which even dry adiabatic mixing would keep surface temperatures below freezing. However, given the time of year and the fact 1000-850 mb winds are northerly, mixing largely tops out around 900 mb. With that said, Saturday`s high temperatures should struggle to escape the teens in most spots, with a few low 20s possible across far southern Maryland. Along the Allegheny Front, single digits are likely all that can be mustered. As snow comes in Saturday night, this will fall amidst temperatures in the single digits to lower teens. I'm still not used to the "key message" numbering thing for AFDs vs. the normal 1 day, 3 day, extended, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 29 minutes ago, csnavywx said: RRFS-A coming into range and has basically the same evolution. Slower/less perfect interaction between 00 and 06Z and a bit stronger with the eastern lobe of the high. Interested to see if this becomes a trend given that both trailing N/S waves have yet to become their own entities. I can’t be the only that hasn’t loved the look at h5. I’m used to seeing a closed low south of us for the biggies. But science Is science and a snowstorm is a snowstorm. Just makes me pause a bit until all the Euro and GFS really start to converge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 21 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 9z SREF This is a picture perfect overrunning precip profile. Would love to be tickled by some of that dark blue on the next run. The red on the Greenland coast is "rage" 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Don't get nervous. We're still days away. Few days. It’s hard to wrap our heads around things coming together. Doesn’t happen that often. The obs thread will be poppin’ soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 NAM slow as hell this morning. Hopefully not a sign of the rest of the model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 NAM a lil slower/less interaction through 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: NAM slow as hell this morning. Hopefully not a sign of the rest of the model runs. @36 the large lobe of energy north of MN/WI seems to be having an effect here. More pronounced with strength and progression on kinking southwest. Curious how it will relate downstream. Ok yea.. @42 confluence is pretty pronounced here compared to 6Z. Again I KNOW we are talking Nam but any positive shift is always a good sign to kick off 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Since we all have nothing better to look at right now... 12z NAM at 45 h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Few days. It’s hard to wrap our heads around things coming together. Doesn’t happen that often. The obs thread will be poppin’ soon I am excited that the what falls won't melt away in three days. Give me enough to make everything white and then freeze it for a week. My dream winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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