Bob Chill Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: If you’re in Lynchburg, you could very well see 15+”. There’s a chance this amps up and you mix down there, but your area is setup to get crushed by the WAA regime, at the very least. I wouldn’t just dismiss this forecast for you unless you are truly expecting this to shift well to your north. That said, TWC putting out a forecast is insanity at this range. Pretty sure I'll mix at some point. 18z Euro fired the first warning shot but 1.75" qpf had already fallen before the mix. Good thing is (so far) all the mix soundings are sleet. Warn nose is @ h7 and there's plenty of cold below to make grape nuts instead of ice. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Already got dibs on Baja naming...so I declare it to be called Baja Blast If it makes you laugh when you picture a news anchor saying it, and has a little bit to do with the storm, then its a good name. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: You still canhttps://battaglia.ddns.net/twc/ Ha! Was watching that in a minimized window already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ha! Was watching that in a minimized window already. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That was my thought. And local news is paul kocin still there lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Icon through hour 60 has a more tilted N-S for the NS that opens up the SW and leads to it progressing east than its 18z run. 0z on top 18z below 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Guys, lets lock in. 0z suite time. We start with the ICON. Come on. You know the drill. Moderator @bncho is here to get you lot in order. 3 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty sure I'll mix at some point. 18z Euro fired the first warning shot but 1.75" qpf had already fallen before the mix. Good thing is (so far) all the mix soundings are sleet. Warn nose is @ h7 and there's plenty of cold below to make grape nuts instead of ice. Yeah. I think the mix can make it to your hood, but that signal on the initial WAA thump is absolutely incredible. The FGEN panels are nutty with a deep DGZ layer correlating with the same time frame. You’ll probably see some monster dendrites followed by clumped aggregates that will accumulate hard and fast before any flip. Should be a great storm down there, Bob!! 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: If you’re in Lynchburg, you could very well see 15+”. There’s a chance this amps up and you mix down there, but your area is setup to get crushed by the WAA regime, at the very least. I wouldn’t just dismiss this forecast for you unless you are truly expecting this to shift well to your north. That said, TWC putting out a forecast is insanity at this range. That is good to hear ... don't care about being in the jackpot, but was thinking a 100-150 mile shift to the north as has been discussed in this thread would put the freezing rain amounts being advertised in NC right in my backyard - genuinely worrying. I like not losing power for a week with single digit temperatures. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 About to be ICONic? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Yeah. I think the mix can make it to your hood, but that signal on the initial WAA thump is absolutely incredible. The FGEN panels are nutty with a deep DGZ layer correlating with the same time frame. You’ll probably see some monster dendrites followed by clumped aggregates that will accumulate hard and fast before any flip. Should be a great storm down there, Bob!! @MillvilleWx @Bob Chill the thing I like for us is that WAA mega strip really hasn’t wavered for MULTIPLE runs now. Some noise here and there but that paint brush stroke is straight and steady as she goes. Hoping it is still a reality by Thursday night and then I’ll personally get a little more excited. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, Ji said: is paul kocin still there lol? He left loooooong ago. Had lunch with him a few times back in the day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Bitchin Nachos has the wheel! Let’s rock 0z!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Yeah. I think the mix can make it to your hood, but that signal on the initial WAA thump is absolutely incredible. The FGEN panels are nutty with a deep DGZ layer correlating with the same time frame. You’ll probably see some monster dendrites followed by clumped aggregates that will accumulate hard and fast before any flip. Should be a great storm down there, Bob!! The 6z Sunday sounding looks AMAZING. Mlcape in the 350s and pounding snow. Maybe a rumble or 2? 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 RGEM mirroring the ICON so far with some ass hair differences 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The NBM keeps ticking higher. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Icon with higher heights across the southeast as well. Probably coming north unless something goes wonky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 ICON is gonna be another huge hit. JFC... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Pretty bold this early. Weird they have that max where there's going to be some mixing Exactly. This storm does have some similarities to PDII in February 2003. I was working at the AKQ WFO at the time and at one point we had 12-18" for RIC and counties north. Problem is LWX had the same totals for their CWA in northern VA. We were like, hmmm, not *everyone* will get that...there has to be a mix somewhere, likely in the heavier QPF area farther south. Sure enough, RIC got 3-5" of sleet. Still a WSW, but yeah, in the mid Atlantic it's quite rare to get a 100-150 mile north-south swath of jackpot snow. Just doesn't happen. Climo, climo, climo! I know where the heaviest QPF is still progged (south), but I bet you the best ratios, and thus heaviest snow, will be north of Rte 50, maybe even north of I-70. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ya Rgem looks like it would be a whack if it kept going. Which pretty much will when cmc comes out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: The NBM keeps ticking higher. I believe now for that cycle (01Z) it reflects the much improved 18Z GFS and the GEFS, hence the bump upward from awhile ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Yeah, ICON is like 50 miles north of 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, winter_warlock said: 00z icon at very end of its run... And it's still snowing at hour 120 for all of us. And more snow to come! This is 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: 00z icon at very end of its run... And it's still snowing at hour 120 for all of us. And more snow to come! 0z icon goes to 180, no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: 00z icon at very end of its run... And it's still snowing at hour 120 for all of us. And more snow to come! That's 18z Edit: Ninja'd twice over, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Icon clearly has a better setup for NS and SW phase interaction 0z 18z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: 00z icon at very end of its run... And it's still snowing at hour 120 for all of us. And more snow to come! That’s 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The 6z Sunday sounding looks AMAZING. Mlcape in the 350s and pounding snow. Maybe a rumble or 2? Yeah, that sounding is a mauling of epic proportions. I mentioned to @wxdude64 tonight that I think 2-3”/hr is on the table during the storm height. It’s truly one of the better setups you’ll get at your latitude. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: 00z icon at very end of its run... And it's still snowing at hour 120 for all of us. And more snow to come! That's 18z dude 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 22 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Hopefully Cantore goes to Richmond. Earlier, I was just talkin out my ass. I have NO idea where Cantore is going. Probably Richmond is my wag. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts