January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[nw baltimore wx]

Damn.  I guess I'm invested for the 0z suite.  Might as well accept it and get a bourbon.

[SnowenOutThere]

10 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Not just naming it… putting this map out there already.


.

God they are setting up some poor weather kid in NC to get bullied when they tell their friends to expect 2ft of snow. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 Pretty bold this early.  Weird they have that max where there's going to be some mixing

Agree. I think it's a bit early to be putting out these kinds of specific amounts right now for specific areas. Maybe on Friday or something, whatever it looks like by then. At this point it would be more responsible and helpful to either show some kind of probability or likelihood given current indications. Like prob of getting 6" or more, 12" or more, with some description or verbiage about the uncertainty or range. 

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

If you’re in Lynchburg, you could very well see 15+”. There’s a chance this amps up and you mix down there, but your area is setup to get crushed by the WAA regime, at the very least. I wouldn’t just dismiss this forecast for you unless you are truly expecting this to shift well to your north. 
 

That said, TWC putting out a forecast is insanity at this range. 

Pretty sure I'll mix at some point. 18z Euro fired the first warning shot but 1.75" qpf had already fallen before the mix. Good thing is (so far) all the mix soundings are sleet. Warn nose is @ h7 and there's plenty of cold below to make grape nuts instead of ice. 

[Amped]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Already got dibs on Baja naming...so I declare it to be called Baja Blast 

If it makes you laugh when you picture a news anchor saying it, and has a little bit to do with the storm, then its a good name. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Warm Nose said:

You still can

https://battaglia.ddns.net/twc/

Ha! Was watching that in a minimized window already.

[Warm Nose]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ha! Was watching that in a minimized window already.

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That was my thought.  And local news

is paul kocin still there lol?

[SnowenOutThere]

Icon through hour 60 has a more tilted N-S for the NS that opens up the SW and leads to it progressing east than its 18z run. 0z on top 18z below

[bncho]

Guys, lets lock in. 0z suite time. We start with the ICON. Come on. You know the drill. Moderator @bncho is here to get you lot in order.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Pretty sure I'll mix at some point. 18z Euro fired the first warning shot but 1.75" qpf had already fallen before the mix. Good thing is (so far) all the mix soundings are sleet. Warn nose is @ h7 and there's plenty of cold below to make grape nuts instead of ice. 

Yeah. I think the mix can make it to your hood, but that signal on the initial WAA thump is absolutely incredible. The FGEN panels are nutty with a deep DGZ layer correlating with the same time frame. You’ll probably see some monster dendrites followed by clumped aggregates that will accumulate hard and fast before any flip. Should be a great storm down there, Bob!! 

[Ephesians2]

10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

If you’re in Lynchburg, you could very well see 15+”. There’s a chance this amps up and you mix down there, but your area is setup to get crushed by the WAA regime, at the very least. I wouldn’t just dismiss this forecast for you unless you are truly expecting this to shift well to your north. 
 

That said, TWC putting out a forecast is insanity at this range. 

That is good to hear ... don't care about being in the jackpot, but was thinking a 100-150 mile shift to the north as has been discussed in this thread would put the freezing rain amounts being advertised in NC right in my backyard - genuinely worrying. I like not losing power for a week with single digit temperatures. 

[jayyy]

About to be ICONic?

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Yeah. I think the mix can make it to your hood, but that signal on the initial WAA thump is absolutely incredible. The FGEN panels are nutty with a deep DGZ layer correlating with the same time frame. You’ll probably see some monster dendrites followed by clumped aggregates that will accumulate hard and fast before any flip. Should be a great storm down there, Bob!! 

@MillvilleWx @Bob Chill the thing I like for us is that WAA mega strip really hasn’t wavered for MULTIPLE runs now. Some noise here and there but that paint brush stroke is straight and steady as she goes. Hoping it is still a reality by Thursday night and then I’ll personally get a little more excited. 

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

is paul kocin still there lol?

He left loooooong ago.   Had lunch with him a few times back in the day

[Scraff]

Bitchin Nachos has the wheel! Let’s rock 0z!! 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Yeah. I think the mix can make it to your hood, but that signal on the initial WAA thump is absolutely incredible. The FGEN panels are nutty with a deep DGZ layer correlating with the same time frame. You’ll probably see some monster dendrites followed by clumped aggregates that will accumulate hard and fast before any flip. Should be a great storm down there, Bob!! 

The 6z Sunday sounding looks AMAZING. Mlcape in the 350s and pounding snow. Maybe a rumble or 2? 

[stormtracker]

RGEM mirroring the ICON so far with some ass hair differences

[midatlanticweather]

The NBM keeps ticking higher. 

[Amped]

Icon with higher heights across the southeast as well. Probably coming north unless something goes wonky.

[bncho]

ICON is gonna be another huge hit. JFC...

[WxMan1]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 Pretty bold this early.  Weird they have that max where there's going to be some mixing

Exactly. This storm does have some similarities to PDII in February 2003. I was working at the AKQ WFO at the time and at one point we had 12-18" for RIC and counties north. Problem is LWX had the same totals for their CWA in northern VA. We were like, hmmm, not *everyone* will get that...there has to be a mix somewhere, likely in the heavier QPF area farther south. Sure enough, RIC got 3-5" of sleet. Still a WSW, but yeah, in the mid Atlantic it's quite rare to get a 100-150 mile north-south swath of jackpot snow. Just doesn't happen. Climo, climo, climo! I know where the heaviest QPF is still progged (south), but I bet you the best ratios, and thus heaviest snow, will be north of Rte 50, maybe even north of I-70.  

[TSSN+]

Ya Rgem looks like it would be a whack if it kept going. Which pretty much will when cmc comes out. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

The NBM keeps ticking higher. 

I believe now for that cycle (01Z) it reflects the much improved 18Z GFS and the GEFS, hence the bump upward from awhile ago. 

[bncho]

Yeah, ICON is like 50 miles north of 12z.

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

00z icon at very end of its run... And  it's still snowing at hour 120 for all of us. And more snow to come!

This is 18z

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

00z icon at very end of its run... And  it's still snowing at hour 120 for all of us. And more snow to come!

0z icon goes to 180, no?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

00z icon at very end of its run... And  it's still snowing at hour 120 for all of us. And more snow to come!

That's 18z

Edit: Ninja'd twice over, lol

[SnowenOutThere]

Icon clearly has a better setup for NS and SW phase interaction 0z 

18z

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

00z icon at very end of its run... And  it's still snowing at hour 120 for all of us. And more snow to come!

That’s 18z