January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Yeoman]

33 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Was doing laundry...what did i miss?

left a sock in the dryer - must be stuck to the wall

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

May he stay far away.. well wait.. all those thunder snow live shots tho. Conflicted.

Someone with actual meteorology training should tell us if thundersnow is a possibility with this thing. I assume less so than you'd expect as its overrunning. 

[pazzo83]

7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Chasing my crazy kids around to get ready for bed and I come back to see we got nuked. My God. If this keeps trending, where are we going to be come Saturday??

damn you are lucky your kids go to bed this early

[Amped]

25 minutes ago, grhqofb5 said:

Is there any data available about potential wind speeds? 

Probably not very high with the CAD, except maybe along the coast.

[WEATHER53]

24 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

As much as we all want Blizzard warnings the wind speeds just aren't there. Will sadly need to take a winter storm warning for 16-20 inches instead. 

As it departs the pressure gradients should get us some 30moh gusts 

[H2O]

7 minutes ago, andyhb said:

That northern stream wave/lobe of the PV continues to get stronger with each passing Euro run. Not sure if that continues, but it absolutely raises the ceiling on this if it phases. I should probably add that it also may induce more mixing concerns for areas further south, as it would lead to SE ridge amplification and WAA aloft.

I've been saying this for 2 days.  Suppression was least likely and too amped/north is the risk.  A phase is really not gonna be good for a significant part of the area.  Warm layers will mess things up and totals will be cut way back

[nj2va]

Latest WPC from this afternoon 80% contour through DC for at least a moderate storm. 
 

On the WPC site, DC is in the 60% contours for a major event. 

[RevWarReenactor]

4 minutes ago, H2O said:

I've been saying this for 2 days.  Suppression was least likely and too amped/north is the risk.  A phase is really not gonna be good for a significant part of the area.  Warm layers will mess things up and totals will be cut way back

The temps on the Euro could be cause for concern. The gradient between northern Delaware at 16 degrees and the Beaches 60 miles away at 35 is interesting. 

[Jebman]

20 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Chasing my crazy kids around to get ready for bed and I come back to see we got nuked. My God. If this keeps trending, where are we going to be come Saturday??

nuked++++++++++

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, H2O said:

I've been saying this for 2 days.  Suppression was least likely and too amped/north is the risk.  A phase is really not gonna be good for a significant part of the area.  Warm layers will mess things up and totals will be cut way back

I get your concern, but as is, we're good and I think this is where we want it, no more amplification 

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, H2O said:

I've been saying this for 2 days.  Suppression was least likely and too amped/north is the risk.  A phase is really not gonna be good for a significant part of the area.  Warm layers will mess things up and totals will be cut way back

This is a rare storm as far as thermals go. We have legit arctic air in place for this one. I want it as amped as it can get. 

[Weather Will]

Ok, dusted off the EPS snow prob. Maps.  12, 6 and 3 inches from WB 18Z EPS

[aldie 22]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

This is a rare storm as far as thermals go. We have legit arctic air in place for this one. I want it as amped as it can get. 

I was looking at that member pin map in banter, we are so close. Are you near the Jordan Springs BBQ gas station?

[Disc]

I still wouldn't want to cheer for more phasing as that will introduce a lot more mixing issues. We saw that scenario a day or so ago with some models taking the primary into TN and KY, then doing a hop to the coast. The 18z Euro has hints of this with lower MSLP into WV. The 12z run has much less evidence of this. Just something to keep tabs on moving forward. 

 

 

[H2O]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

This is a rare storm as far as thermals go. We have legit arctic air in place for this one. I want it as amped as it can get. 

I fucking don't.  Sorry.  Again I hope your area gets good snow.  I hope we all do.  But if shit has to get amped just so you can get 24" while I get 4 and slop then it will not be as fun for a lot of people

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I get your concern, but as is, we're good and I think this is where we want it, no more amplification 

I'm honestly not sure how much further this can come north from a phase alone (famous last words). The Euro is the highest latitude it can reach bar confluence retreat (which is a possibility). Realistically I think we see a slightly messier phase so we don't need to worry that much even if the confluence is a bit overdone. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

I fucking don't.  Sorry.  Again I hope your area gets good snow.  I hope we all do.  But if shit has to get amped just so you can get 24" while I get 4 and slop then it will not be as fun for a lot of people

Will point out no matter what youre not getting slop. You'll be getting Ice. 

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I was looking at that member pin map in banter, we are so close. Are you near the Jordan Springs BBQ gas station?

A few miles NW of there up off of 522.

[bncho]

The EPS's "fail" scenario is literally 4-6" for the area, probably up to 7-10" with ratios.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Disc said:

I still wouldn't want to cheer for more phasing as that will introduce a lot more mixing issues. We saw that scenario a day or so ago with some models taking the primary into TN and KY, then doing a hop to the coast. The 18z Euro has hints of this with lower MSLP into WV. The 12z run has much less evidence of this. Just something to keep tabs on moving forward. 

 

 

If you want the boom you need to get close to mixing. Smell the sleet line baby. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Will point out no matter what youre not getting slop. You'll be getting Ice. 

Nah, I'm with @H2O  Let's just stop the amped here and all be happy with a foot.  Nobody wants to be sweating a mix line.   

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

A few miles NW of there up off of 522.

Snowden Bridge

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, H2O said:

I've been saying this for 2 days.  Suppression was least likely and too amped/north is the risk.  A phase is really not gonna be good for a significant part of the area.  Warm layers will mess things up and totals will be cut way back

I agree with this. Setup morphed entirely over the past 36 hrs. Went from suppressed fears and no NS to full phase and amping up. I do think many here are in a very very good spot attm.

 

[wxdude64]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I bet some of those 30” totals in NC is sleet. But a storm like this, especially a phaser, someone somewhere might get 2+ feet.

I HOPE you're saying 2 feet of snow 'cuz 2 feet of sleet would be absolutely historic and damaging. Not sure if a flat roof could hold that. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, wxdude64 said:

I HOPE you're saying 2 feet of snow 'cuz 2 feet of sleet would be absolutely historic and damaging. Not sure if a flat roof could hold that. 

Not sure 2 ft of sleet is possible. Is it?

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nah, I'm with @H2O  Let's just stop the amped here and all be happy with a foot.  Nobody wants to be sweating a mix line.   

I’ll sweat it, i basically haven’t gotten jack shit since Jan 25 2016. It’s been a long wait, unlike you guys down South who have gotten plenty. I want the big dog aka 16-24”. 

[IronTy]

We're looking down the barrel of 1-2ft of snow and below freezing temps for a solid week afterwards.  Anybody who says DC can't do winter anymore is smoking crack. 

[bringmesnow1]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Not sure 2 ft of sleet is possible. Is it?

That'd be 6"+ of qpf.  

[Nomz]

I think Richmond and south probably have a right to be worried about mixing, just as DC and north have a right to be worried about the storm being too far south. I wouldn't come close to betting on either scenario happening, though. 

[wxdude64]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Not sure 2 ft of sleet is possible. Is it?

Definitely would be historic, lol. I've had 6" and 7" sleet events. Stuff so heavy to try and move around, plus it runs and piles into the lowest spot possible.