Yeoman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 33 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Was doing laundry...what did i miss? left a sock in the dryer - must be stuck to the wall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, CAPE said: May he stay far away.. well wait.. all those thunder snow live shots tho. Conflicted. Someone with actual meteorology training should tell us if thundersnow is a possibility with this thing. I assume less so than you'd expect as its overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Chasing my crazy kids around to get ready for bed and I come back to see we got nuked. My God. If this keeps trending, where are we going to be come Saturday?? damn you are lucky your kids go to bed this early 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 25 minutes ago, grhqofb5 said: Is there any data available about potential wind speeds? Probably not very high with the CAD, except maybe along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 24 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: As much as we all want Blizzard warnings the wind speeds just aren't there. Will sadly need to take a winter storm warning for 16-20 inches instead. As it departs the pressure gradients should get us some 30moh gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, andyhb said: That northern stream wave/lobe of the PV continues to get stronger with each passing Euro run. Not sure if that continues, but it absolutely raises the ceiling on this if it phases. I should probably add that it also may induce more mixing concerns for areas further south, as it would lead to SE ridge amplification and WAA aloft. I've been saying this for 2 days. Suppression was least likely and too amped/north is the risk. A phase is really not gonna be good for a significant part of the area. Warm layers will mess things up and totals will be cut way back 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Latest WPC from this afternoon 80% contour through DC for at least a moderate storm. On the WPC site, DC is in the 60% contours for a major event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, H2O said: I've been saying this for 2 days. Suppression was least likely and too amped/north is the risk. A phase is really not gonna be good for a significant part of the area. Warm layers will mess things up and totals will be cut way back The temps on the Euro could be cause for concern. The gradient between northern Delaware at 16 degrees and the Beaches 60 miles away at 35 is interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 20 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Chasing my crazy kids around to get ready for bed and I come back to see we got nuked. My God. If this keeps trending, where are we going to be come Saturday?? nuked++++++++++ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, H2O said: I've been saying this for 2 days. Suppression was least likely and too amped/north is the risk. A phase is really not gonna be good for a significant part of the area. Warm layers will mess things up and totals will be cut way back I get your concern, but as is, we're good and I think this is where we want it, no more amplification 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, H2O said: I've been saying this for 2 days. Suppression was least likely and too amped/north is the risk. A phase is really not gonna be good for a significant part of the area. Warm layers will mess things up and totals will be cut way back This is a rare storm as far as thermals go. We have legit arctic air in place for this one. I want it as amped as it can get. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ok, dusted off the EPS snow prob. Maps. 12, 6 and 3 inches from WB 18Z EPS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, clskinsfan said: This is a rare storm as far as thermals go. We have legit arctic air in place for this one. I want it as amped as it can get. I was looking at that member pin map in banter, we are so close. Are you near the Jordan Springs BBQ gas station? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I still wouldn't want to cheer for more phasing as that will introduce a lot more mixing issues. We saw that scenario a day or so ago with some models taking the primary into TN and KY, then doing a hop to the coast. The 18z Euro has hints of this with lower MSLP into WV. The 12z run has much less evidence of this. Just something to keep tabs on moving forward. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, clskinsfan said: This is a rare storm as far as thermals go. We have legit arctic air in place for this one. I want it as amped as it can get. I fucking don't. Sorry. Again I hope your area gets good snow. I hope we all do. But if shit has to get amped just so you can get 24" while I get 4 and slop then it will not be as fun for a lot of people 3 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I get your concern, but as is, we're good and I think this is where we want it, no more amplification I'm honestly not sure how much further this can come north from a phase alone (famous last words). The Euro is the highest latitude it can reach bar confluence retreat (which is a possibility). Realistically I think we see a slightly messier phase so we don't need to worry that much even if the confluence is a bit overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, H2O said: I fucking don't. Sorry. Again I hope your area gets good snow. I hope we all do. But if shit has to get amped just so you can get 24" while I get 4 and slop then it will not be as fun for a lot of people Will point out no matter what youre not getting slop. You'll be getting Ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: I was looking at that member pin map in banter, we are so close. Are you near the Jordan Springs BBQ gas station? A few miles NW of there up off of 522. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The EPS's "fail" scenario is literally 4-6" for the area, probably up to 7-10" with ratios. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Disc said: I still wouldn't want to cheer for more phasing as that will introduce a lot more mixing issues. We saw that scenario a day or so ago with some models taking the primary into TN and KY, then doing a hop to the coast. The 18z Euro has hints of this with lower MSLP into WV. The 12z run has much less evidence of this. Just something to keep tabs on moving forward. If you want the boom you need to get close to mixing. Smell the sleet line baby. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Will point out no matter what youre not getting slop. You'll be getting Ice. Nah, I'm with @H2O Let's just stop the amped here and all be happy with a foot. Nobody wants to be sweating a mix line. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: A few miles NW of there up off of 522. Snowden Bridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 13 minutes ago, H2O said: I've been saying this for 2 days. Suppression was least likely and too amped/north is the risk. A phase is really not gonna be good for a significant part of the area. Warm layers will mess things up and totals will be cut way back I agree with this. Setup morphed entirely over the past 36 hrs. Went from suppressed fears and no NS to full phase and amping up. I do think many here are in a very very good spot attm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: I bet some of those 30” totals in NC is sleet. But a storm like this, especially a phaser, someone somewhere might get 2+ feet. I HOPE you're saying 2 feet of snow 'cuz 2 feet of sleet would be absolutely historic and damaging. Not sure if a flat roof could hold that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, wxdude64 said: I HOPE you're saying 2 feet of snow 'cuz 2 feet of sleet would be absolutely historic and damaging. Not sure if a flat roof could hold that. Not sure 2 ft of sleet is possible. Is it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nah, I'm with @H2O Let's just stop the amped here and all be happy with a foot. Nobody wants to be sweating a mix line. I’ll sweat it, i basically haven’t gotten jack shit since Jan 25 2016. It’s been a long wait, unlike you guys down South who have gotten plenty. I want the big dog aka 16-24”. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 We're looking down the barrel of 1-2ft of snow and below freezing temps for a solid week afterwards. Anybody who says DC can't do winter anymore is smoking crack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bringmesnow1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, BristowWx said: Not sure 2 ft of sleet is possible. Is it? That'd be 6"+ of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I think Richmond and south probably have a right to be worried about mixing, just as DC and north have a right to be worried about the storm being too far south. I wouldn't come close to betting on either scenario happening, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Not sure 2 ft of sleet is possible. Is it? Definitely would be historic, lol. I've had 6" and 7" sleet events. Stuff so heavy to try and move around, plus it runs and piles into the lowest spot possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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