January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[clskinsfan]

47 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I learned from DT way back when that you don't go against the E/E rule.

He put out a pretty decent video yesterday. He was geeking out like I havent seen him do in a long time. Difficult guy to communicate with to say the least. But the guy knows his weather. 

[clskinsfan]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Icon looking like 0z GGEM

It is beautiful man. 

[Nomz]

Here comes the GFS

[batmanbrad]

ICON leads... will GFS/CMC/Euro/UKMET/AI's follow?

[AlexD1990]

It sounds like the ICON solution featured a deepening coastal low that pulls in a warm nose for some. I haven't heard this scenario being mentioned on other guidance, so is this a new development? Could we see this pop up on other guidance?

[EastCoast NPZ]

6 minutes ago, T. August said:

Am I the only one who doesn’t want wind? I want that shit falling straight down. Stack ‘em up tall.

Ratios are better without wind too.

[clskinsfan]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Ratios are better without wind too.

Yeah. But you dont get the cool drifts.

[paulythegun]

Another note on ICON:

In the wake of that catastrophic icing all across the deep/mid-south, they'd have no power PLUS temps in the single digits. BAD!

[TSSN+]

Thru 42 gfs and euro h5 almost exactly the same in every way. 

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

        Not fully true.    While the time it starts doesn't match the operational, the actual cycles of the parallel use inputs from the same model cycles as the ops.    Worth noting that the ops does not include any Canadian inputs in the winter suite, while the parallel uses several.  And a reminder for everyone:  both the ops and para winter products only update at 01/07/13/19z.   

Thanks. The Canadian inputs will be a nice touch, especially around the Great Lakes which we’ve seen with verification. Does better with LES physics and outputs absolutely bias low on the NBM 4.3 around that area. Also noticed the 5.0 biases low on these synoptic scale setups, but does do a solid job on the edges, so it’s give and take. We’ll be chatting as we get closer to implementation. Excited for the new changes in version 5.0. 
 

Back to your regularly scheduled programming. 

[weathercoins]

ICON is beautiful with … even more upside.  

[peribonca]

Baja low holding back a touch on the GFS at 54

[TSSN+]

Just now, peribonca said:

Baja low holding back a touch on the GFS at 54

It’s in same position as euro 

[csnavywx]

2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

It sounds like the ICON solution featured a deepening coastal low that pulls in a warm nose for some. I haven't heard this scenario being mentioned on other guidance, so is this a new development? Could we see this pop up on other guidance?

Depends on how the trailing northern stream vort goes. A phase there makes it more likely. But, usually, in order to get the biggest totals, you need to smell the sleet.

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Thanks. The Canadian inputs will be a nice touch, especially around the Great Lakes which we’ve seen with verification. Does better with LES physics and outputs absolutely bias low on the NBM 4.3 around that area. Also noticed the 5.0 biases low on these synoptic scale setups, but does do a solid job on the edges, so it’s give and take. We’ll be chatting as we get closer to implementation. Excited for the new changes in version 5.0. 

       One other thing to note is that the para gives more weight to the CAMs in the short range, so it will be really fun to see what this event looks like as get closer to it happening.

[soadforecasterx]

Remember models are now ejecting it out slower. Which has led to the type of out come Euro showed last night. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

It sounds like the ICON solution featured a deepening coastal low that pulls in a warm nose for some. I haven't heard this scenario being mentioned on other guidance, so is this a new development? Could we see this pop up on other guidance?

Everything is trending that way. Primary driving into the TN valley then a handoff off of NC. Interestingly, the euro ai was showing that type of progression several days ago. CMC was as well but was very amplified. From a history and climo standpoint it makes a lot of sense. It's a classic progression for a major SE/MA winter storm. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Everything is trending that way. Primary driving into the TN valley then a handoff off of NC. Interestingly, the euro ai was showing that type of progression several days ago. CMC was as well but was very amplified. From a history and climo standpoint it makes a lot of sense. It's a classic progression for a major SE/MA winter storm. 

Agreed 100% with this. More of a classic progression and honestly a lot more analogs like it that we can compare to. It's what produces the 2 part WAA over to CBB/deform PD2 and others have had. You love that primary into NE TN/W NC and transferring with this kind of airmass. 

[stormtracker]

Sucky thing about being into weather and blabbing about it is when the models start coming out and I'm clearly deep into my screen, 1200 co workers pick THEN to want to come over and ask me about the storm.  Anyway, GFS looks good so far.

I think Saturday could be completely dry?

[LVblizzard]

3 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

Remember models are now ejecting it out slower. Which has led to the type of out come Euro showed last night. 

That has more to to with the TPV splitting and digging more west than the energy in the southwest.

[yoda]

12z GFS h5 at 84

 

[weathercoins]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Sucky thing about being into weather and blabbing about it is when the models start coming out and I'm clearly deep into my screen, 1200 co workers pick THEN to want to come over and ask me about the storm.  Anyway, GFS looks good so far.

I think Saturday could be completely dry?

It’s also worse these days than it used to be, because everyone sees 19-23” on their Apple Weather app and the question is no longer “will it snow” but “two feet of snow?”

[clskinsfan]

It is definitely holding back a little bit.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

It is definitely holding back a little bit.

Don't start this mess, gfs lol

[NorthArlington101]

19 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

ICON: snow starts around 6 AM or so Sunday morning, if not a little later.

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Sucky thing about being into weather and blabbing about it is when the models start coming out and I'm clearly deep into my screen, 1200 co workers pick THEN to want to come over and ask me about the storm.  Anyway, GFS looks good so far.

I think Saturday could be completely dry?

yeah, I'm still a little sad we've pushed this back a day. I guess it seems to offer us a higher-end outcome, but would rather just get this done sooner rather than later. Guess it ups the odds of OPM giving us a day on Monday.

[LP08]

GFS dragging its heels out west.  Less interaction with the NS.

[SnowenOutThere]

33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, don't know where this came from. Maybe I wasn't paying enough attention?

Now it’s a true 2016 redux with an event the days before 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

AI GFS sticking to its idea of no phase and a more southerly track.

[Alfoman]

Was nice while it lasted GFS 

[stormtracker]

lol, Gfs is going to be a disaster...i should prob wait to say this