clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 47 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I learned from DT way back when that you don't go against the E/E rule. He put out a pretty decent video yesterday. He was geeking out like I havent seen him do in a long time. Difficult guy to communicate with to say the least. But the guy knows his weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Icon looking like 0z GGEM It is beautiful man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Here comes the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 ICON leads... will GFS/CMC/Euro/UKMET/AI's follow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 It sounds like the ICON solution featured a deepening coastal low that pulls in a warm nose for some. I haven't heard this scenario being mentioned on other guidance, so is this a new development? Could we see this pop up on other guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 6 minutes ago, T. August said: Am I the only one who doesn’t want wind? I want that shit falling straight down. Stack ‘em up tall. Ratios are better without wind too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Ratios are better without wind too. Yeah. But you dont get the cool drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Another note on ICON: In the wake of that catastrophic icing all across the deep/mid-south, they'd have no power PLUS temps in the single digits. BAD! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Thru 42 gfs and euro h5 almost exactly the same in every way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, high risk said: Not fully true. While the time it starts doesn't match the operational, the actual cycles of the parallel use inputs from the same model cycles as the ops. Worth noting that the ops does not include any Canadian inputs in the winter suite, while the parallel uses several. And a reminder for everyone: both the ops and para winter products only update at 01/07/13/19z. Thanks. The Canadian inputs will be a nice touch, especially around the Great Lakes which we’ve seen with verification. Does better with LES physics and outputs absolutely bias low on the NBM 4.3 around that area. Also noticed the 5.0 biases low on these synoptic scale setups, but does do a solid job on the edges, so it’s give and take. We’ll be chatting as we get closer to implementation. Excited for the new changes in version 5.0. Back to your regularly scheduled programming. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 ICON is beautiful with … even more upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Baja low holding back a touch on the GFS at 54 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, peribonca said: Baja low holding back a touch on the GFS at 54 It’s in same position as euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: It sounds like the ICON solution featured a deepening coastal low that pulls in a warm nose for some. I haven't heard this scenario being mentioned on other guidance, so is this a new development? Could we see this pop up on other guidance? Depends on how the trailing northern stream vort goes. A phase there makes it more likely. But, usually, in order to get the biggest totals, you need to smell the sleet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Thanks. The Canadian inputs will be a nice touch, especially around the Great Lakes which we’ve seen with verification. Does better with LES physics and outputs absolutely bias low on the NBM 4.3 around that area. Also noticed the 5.0 biases low on these synoptic scale setups, but does do a solid job on the edges, so it’s give and take. We’ll be chatting as we get closer to implementation. Excited for the new changes in version 5.0. One other thing to note is that the para gives more weight to the CAMs in the short range, so it will be really fun to see what this event looks like as get closer to it happening. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Remember models are now ejecting it out slower. Which has led to the type of out come Euro showed last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: It sounds like the ICON solution featured a deepening coastal low that pulls in a warm nose for some. I haven't heard this scenario being mentioned on other guidance, so is this a new development? Could we see this pop up on other guidance? Everything is trending that way. Primary driving into the TN valley then a handoff off of NC. Interestingly, the euro ai was showing that type of progression several days ago. CMC was as well but was very amplified. From a history and climo standpoint it makes a lot of sense. It's a classic progression for a major SE/MA winter storm. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, Bob Chill said: Everything is trending that way. Primary driving into the TN valley then a handoff off of NC. Interestingly, the euro ai was showing that type of progression several days ago. CMC was as well but was very amplified. From a history and climo standpoint it makes a lot of sense. It's a classic progression for a major SE/MA winter storm. Agreed 100% with this. More of a classic progression and honestly a lot more analogs like it that we can compare to. It's what produces the 2 part WAA over to CBB/deform PD2 and others have had. You love that primary into NE TN/W NC and transferring with this kind of airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Sucky thing about being into weather and blabbing about it is when the models start coming out and I'm clearly deep into my screen, 1200 co workers pick THEN to want to come over and ask me about the storm. Anyway, GFS looks good so far. I think Saturday could be completely dry? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said: Remember models are now ejecting it out slower. Which has led to the type of out come Euro showed last night. That has more to to with the TPV splitting and digging more west than the energy in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12z GFS h5 at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sucky thing about being into weather and blabbing about it is when the models start coming out and I'm clearly deep into my screen, 1200 co workers pick THEN to want to come over and ask me about the storm. Anyway, GFS looks good so far. I think Saturday could be completely dry? It’s also worse these days than it used to be, because everyone sees 19-23” on their Apple Weather app and the question is no longer “will it snow” but “two feet of snow?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 It is definitely holding back a little bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, clskinsfan said: It is definitely holding back a little bit. Don't start this mess, gfs lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 19 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: ICON: snow starts around 6 AM or so Sunday morning, if not a little later. 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sucky thing about being into weather and blabbing about it is when the models start coming out and I'm clearly deep into my screen, 1200 co workers pick THEN to want to come over and ask me about the storm. Anyway, GFS looks good so far. I think Saturday could be completely dry? yeah, I'm still a little sad we've pushed this back a day. I guess it seems to offer us a higher-end outcome, but would rather just get this done sooner rather than later. Guess it ups the odds of OPM giving us a day on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GFS dragging its heels out west. Less interaction with the NS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, don't know where this came from. Maybe I wasn't paying enough attention? Now it’s a true 2016 redux with an event the days before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 AI GFS sticking to its idea of no phase and a more southerly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Was nice while it lasted GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 lol, Gfs is going to be a disaster...i should prob wait to say this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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