January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[wncsnow]

Keep that north trend going and the cad will erode. But doubt it's enough for NC folks north of 85

[digital snow]

Starting to resemble 2002 ice storm for NC piedmont. We got a quick 2-3 hour thump of snow and over an inch of freezing rain in Durham. I was sitting in my hot tub and transformers were exploding all around. I shit you not, I thought it was lightning lol. (disclaimer- I was 22 and having a storm party) Life pretty much stopped for a week. Cheers to hoping for the sleet!

[Brick Tamland]

If this ends up like the Euro shows this run then people are never going to believe the local mets again and no one should ever trust any model outside 3 days when it comes to winter weather here. 

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Keep that north trend going and the cad will erode. But doubt it's enough for NC folks north of 85

It was weird, wasn’t really a north trend. Kind of just nukes the wedge 

[RockyKnob]

I’m no professional, nor even an avid student of the models, but I have lived in North Carolina for 56 years, and I can promise you the Euro is understating the sleet / overstating the freezing rain. 

[SEwakenosnowforu]

17 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I see PackGrad is pointing out the worst case scenario as always.

Living in SE Wake co we ALWAYS point out the worst case! Been screwed too many times

[Buddy1987]

Euro proves right it will be a literal war zone for many. 

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It was weird, wasn’t really a north trend. Kind of just nukes the wedge 

The good news is it struggles with CAD. 

[LakeNormanStormin]

Rooting for cold rain at this point.

1.25 inches of ice is lights out around here.

Maybe saved by sleet?

[lilj4425]

I blame this for the model chaos:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/earth-just-hit-strongest-solar-160000803.html

[PackGrad05]

Euro ensembles continue to look way better than the operational. That’s a plus


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[KChuck]

31 minutes ago, Regan said:

You gotta be really careful what you take literally from theirs or any “futurecast”. It’s purely to give a gist and is usually off. Their package software is wonky. Yet they still show it. 

Not to mention that stations use their weather time to tease to drive higher viewership and use that to charge higher advertising fees. Stations make most of their money from their weather products during times like this. I appreciate WXIIs Lani Pope playing this conservatively and while informing viewers of an upcoming winter storm she avoided taking too early a position with all of the unknown data positions still on the table. 

[Brick Tamland]

Yesterday WRAL was saying all snow north of Raleigh. 

[vman722]

Think this forecast discussion from KFFC is really well done. Talks a lot about their feelings on the northern trends of last night and context around that. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&glossary=1

Used to live in ATL area so tracking for family there, but no dog in the fight now certainly makes it easier to stay level headed. Really hope some of you guys score.

[KChuck]

15 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I blame this for the model chaos:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/earth-just-hit-strongest-solar-160000803.html

I believe that there is some validity to this but how much...??? That's a lot of energy being transferred down to the earth during that storm. 

[frazdaddy]

45 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I see PackGrad is pointing out the worst case scenario as always.

Wildre back?

[SnowDawg]

21 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Euro ensembles continue to look way better than the operational. That’s a plus


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More phasing and higher heights in the east on the mean. Not sure I'd call that better at all.

[GunBlade]

After almost 10 years on this board, some things (and people) haven’t changed at all 

Good luck everyone. Reminds me of 2014 with the front end snow, to sleet then freezing rain. Snow stuck around forever. Just need a little more front end snow to make this stick around for a while. 

[DTP]

13 minutes ago, vman722 said:

Think this forecast discussion from KFFC is really well done. Talks a lot about their feelings on the northern trends of last night and context around that. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&glossary=1

Used to live in ATL area so tracking for family there, but no dog in the fight now certainly makes it easier to stay level headed. Really hope some of you guys score.

Good catch- and there is a lot of truth to the KFFC's assessment; it feeds into what I was saying earlier about probabilistic models after having worked with and creating them....you have to discount data at times when it simply does not make logical sense given the situation

[frazdaddy]

1 minute ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

Again...I get what u r saying. However, this very well might turn into this. I see "popular posters" doing the same thing...yet nothing negative said. I see nothing but negative here all the time. It's unreal how humans act towards one another

Yes there is a lot on the table and as buckeye pointed out we all know this.I was making a fun jab at another poster we all miss that was known to have a negative bias. Relax dude it’s gonna be a long weekend

[btownheel]

Good catch- and there is a lot of truth to the KFFC's assessment; it feeds into what I was saying earlier about probabilistic models after having worked with and creating them....you have to discount data at times when it simply does not make logical sense given the situation

Kind of like driving a low right into CAD. Most of us here have tracked these things as hobbyists for a long time. Long enough to know that’s….not a thing.

I get the Euro is the Euro and all, but something’s wonky there.


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[SEwakenosnowforu]

3 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Yes there is a lot on the table and as buckeye pointed out we all know this.I was making a fun jab at another poster we all miss that was known to have a negative bias. Relax dude it’s gonna be a long weekend

I remember him...I have been on this board since the early 2000's...I lost that account because of email accounts. I am just saying popular long time posters are constantly negative after every model especially the EURo..but it seems ok for them to be negative. 

[xAllVolsx]

37 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I blame this for the model chaos:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/earth-just-hit-strongest-solar-160000803.html

Makes one wonder if it doesn’t have something to do with how bipolar these model runs have been.

[Upstate Tiger]

Just went out a couple of hours ago to get one of my LP tanks filled/exchanged, grab a few groceries, and get some gas.  Mission was unsuccessful.  If you don’t have it by now, you ain’t gettin it.  

[buckeyefan1]

NBM Para 18z 

 

[Thrasher Fan]

NBM Para 18z 

 

Always wondered what they mean by “Flat Ice”


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[DTP]

4 minutes ago, btownheel said:

Kind of like driving a low right into CAD. Most of us here have tracked these things as hobbyists for a long time. Long enough to know that’s….not a thing.

I get the Euro is the Euro and all, but something’s wonky there.


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Haha- yes, not a thing, never has been, never will be....all models are showing 020-050 degree wind headings throughout the storm at CLT.  They do not deviate much, if any, between models.  NE wind = CAD from a 1040+ high over NY state throwing out dew points in NC/SC down in the teens...using this logic alone, if the low plowed through the wedge, the wind field would veer out to ENE or even south of 090.....then the CAD would become in-situ or not even present in the first place

Also why they are looking at the actual metadata from the Baja low before buying into it.  Metadata has already occurred, so it isn't influenced by any of the models.  When the models begin to feed in the metadata, you will more than likely see several of them singing a different tune....

They obviously have some good forecasters over there who have a good handle on the potential flaws in the Euro- it takes a lot of experience to come to that conclusion after picking the ensembles apart 

[Snowncanes]

https://x.com/brandonlanewx/status/2014119481144955012?s=46
 

An interesting little trend. I know the precip/clown maps aren’t what we want to see but worth keeping an eye on, especially after more data gets ingested tonight. 

[StantonParkHoya]

It’s interesting that the Euro used to have a bias of burying Baja lows, hanging them back to the southwest too long.

Wonder if they over corrected the physics to remove this bias.


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[wake4est]

New hotness just dropped from NWS. Through Sunday morning on these.