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vman722

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Everything posted by vman722

  1. vman722

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Supercell south of Chapman KS could be the next one to go...
  2. vman722

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    So many supercells out there right now showing rotation, especially in MO. A lot with adequate spacing as well to stay discreet. Guna be a long night.
  3. vman722

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Likely rain wrapped large tornado just west of Picher. Very strong couplet and pronounced CC drop as well. Thankfully should stay well north of Joplin. Very dangerous storm.
  4. vman722

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    18z definitely did, almost nailed the initiation locations to a tee albeit slightly off on the timing. 19z run has a monster right on top of OKC around 4pm CST. This is getting very concerning very quickly considering the environment upstream with time as Quincy pointed out.
  5. vman722

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1130856609847005184 Some good reading if you're interested in some theory/explanation of the failure modes that led to a lack of a historic outbreak yesterday. Edwards is one of the forecasters that did the 13z outlook so definitely some valuable insight. Found this through a page on the Target Area of Storm Track if anyone is interested in exploring the topic further. Some very interesting points from Jeff Duda discussing the event, one thing that stuck out to me was his discussion of the very deep nearly saturated inflow layer and its impacts along with general severe weather enthusiasts (such as myself) over reliance on the HRRR and the importance of utilizing various tools and different CAM's. Defintiely a thread worth a read. https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/2019-05-20-event-tx-ok-ks.30833/page-2
  6. vman722

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    Parent circulation on the KFOR live stream is absolutely massive. Back on the ground now.
  7. vman722

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/tornado.tech.html Some classic structure able to be seen right now on the tornado tech stream. Looks like a rotating wall cloud developing quickly.
  8. vman722

    Severe storms and flash flooding for May 7-13

    Southern most cell is a beast.
  9. vman722

    Severe storms and flash flooding for May 7-13

    Dryline really starting to light up now. Lapse rates are no joke today, these are going severe very quicky.
  10. vman722

    Severe storms and flash flooding for May 7-13

    Edmonson cell pushing out a hook and should get a warning here shortly as well. Looks like things are heating up.
  11. vman722

    Severe storms and flash flooding for May 7-13

    80/70 probs on the tornado watch for the panhandle, higher than I was expecting forsure.
  12. vman722

    April 29-May 1 Severe Weather

    Most recent sounding from OUN. Pretty impressive already.
  13. vman722

    April 13th-14th Severe Threat

    Wow is all I can say pulling these soundings on the latest HRRR around 19z. Really hope those discreet cells grow upscale quickly...
  14. vman722

    General Severe Weather

    Agreed. Also think the sometime around the 18th does as well. Euro and GFS both have a very nice looking troughs with deep surface lows coming into a similar location as the one this weekend. Two active looking periods to watch no doubt. Interested to see if the gulf can recover in time after the first system. Like the look of the 850's for both systems. AL/MS def should be watching those.
  15. vman722

    Mountain West Discussion

    https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/grandtarghee https://opensnow.com/location/grandtarghee These should help you out.
  16. vman722

    Post Arctic front snow Tuesday, Jan 29

    Last winter was too good to us in the ATL and surrounding burbs, knew we were bound for an inevitable disappointment this go around. Temps aren't even close right now and looking at mesoanalysis, they are marginal even way behind the front back in AL. Hopefully we get a shot in February sometime but not holding my breath.
  17. vman722

    Post Arctic front snow Tuesday, Jan 29

    Another ATLien here. Just got back from Colorado where I got to ride the deepest and lightest snow I've ever experienced. It's only fitting that I come back to a dusting fiasco in the A. Regardless of what falls, looking like a hard freeze is on the way tomorrow night. Hopefully, the wind will work its magic and keep the ice to a minimum. But like others have said, working from home is fine with me too. Lucky to be able to.
  18. vman722

    July 19-20 Severe Weather

    I'd be shocked if there isn't a Tor on the ground with the supercell heading towards southern Louisville. Debris ball becoming evident.
  19. vman722

    May 15-20 Severe Threat

    Velocity sig has been weakening the last few scans but it's in a pretty good environment and nicely isolated. Per mesoanalysis, it's working with 55kt bulk shear (25 kt 0-1km), 250-300 m2/s2 ESRH, low LCL's, plenty of CAPE (2500-3000 j/kg). Really good moisture convergence in that area. The cell SW of it bears watching as well.
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