Jan 17-18 Sunday Funday Storm

[NorthHillsWx]

It is time. Lot of speed bumps and fail modes for this one, but there is a path to some level of victory for most on the forum. Good luck everyone, next 3 days will be fun tracking 

[BooneWX]

Let’s party 

[BooneWX]

I’m going to stick my flag in the sand that cams will lead the way on this one. All of the belly aching on globals will soon be done. In a waa setup, you’re never going to catch the nuances that the short range models will. I expect an expansive precip shield at go time. 

[Orange county]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It is time. Lot of speed bumps and fail modes for this one, but there is a path to some level of victory for most on the forum. Good luck everyone, next 3 days will be fun tracking 

I don't travel all that much-but will be far far away Sunday.That should be good karma for a nice snow-that I will miss

[NorthHillsWx]

It’s crazy to me how perpetually overdone Arctic air is on models east of apps in the 5-10+ day range. You’d think tweaks would be made or they would “learn”

[CentralNC]

Oh instead of chasing snow in the mountains, I get to chase it to the east of me.  Not ideal. 

[BornAgain13]

Newest SREF

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Newest SREF

That’s a pretty crazy discrepancy from the Euro and EPS 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Newest SREF

Get a feeling the 12z NAM is going to be a hit of epic proportions 

[olafminesaw]

I'm beginning to believe something like this is our best shot at accumulating snow with rain changing over to snow at the end

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I'm beginning to believe something like this is our best shot at accumulating snow with rain changing over to snow at the end

Outside the mountains given sketchy boundary layer issues I’m really starting to think rates will be the only way to accumulate and light snow will be white rain. Upper levels look good so dynamic cooling will be necessary for accumulating snow in piedmont areas. If those rates don’t develop it is going to be heartbreak in here

[UnionCountyNCWX]

13 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I'm beginning to believe something like this is our best shot at accumulating snow with rain changing over to snow at the end

I saw this same graph posted in the MA. Its been a while since ive scoured through modeling. What model is this???

[CentralNC]

Until the EURO joins the party, I'll stick with it.  Raleigh and east, you got a chance.  Otherwise, not much.

[CentralNC]

James Spann weighs in

https://x.com/spann/status/2011784584837358010?s=20

[eyewall]

BL Temps will be a significant issue as of now that is very concerning to me and of course with a daytime hit on top of that it may be hard to get it to stick for some. We shall see. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, CentralNC said:

Until the EURO joins the party, I'll stick with it.  Raleigh and east, you got a chance.  Otherwise, not much.

10000%

Living and dying by GFS and end of run NAM when EURO is locked in is not place to be. If we get a true overrunning event Euro does tend to tick NW with precip but it’s so far from the GFS world right now it would be a massive whiff from the EURO camp if we end up anything like last nights GFS run

[Brick Tamland]

Watching to see if the GFS holds its ground and if the Euro starts the NW trend today. With the similar type of storm last January the Euro started trending NW 3 days out towards the GFS, so that would be today if this one follows suit. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, eyewall said:

BL Temps will be a significant issue as of now that is very concerning to me and of course with a daytime hit on top of that it may be hard to get it to stick for some. We shall see. 

I’m going to repeat this until the grass is white. This is a major issue with this system we didn’t have to deal with in 2022 or last year and rates are going to be critical. Blues on models won’t mean white ground with this system unless you get heavier bands to set up (outside the mountains)

[olafminesaw]

48 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Outside the mountains given sketchy boundary layer issues I’m really starting to think rates will be the only way to accumulate and light snow will be white rain. Upper levels look good so dynamic cooling will be necessary for accumulating snow in piedmont areas. If those rates don’t develop it is going to be heartbreak in here

The things is, we're in a great spot to thread the needle in terms of model spread. It's just frustrating we have no wiggle room one way or the other and it's trended that way for a days now (even as track/vortex evolution has trended favorable) 

[suzook]

36 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m going to repeat this until the grass is white. This is a major issue with this system we didn’t have to deal with in 2022 or last year and rates are going to be critical. Blues on models won’t mean white ground with this system unless you get heavier bands to set up (outside the mountains)

I agree 100%. We need more cold!

[olafminesaw]

Timing will be key too, if we can get that band of WAA moisture to set up early enough in the AM it will be easier for temps to crash and snow to start accumulating

[NorthHillsWx]

Everyone, prepare to get NAM’d

[BooneWX]

Keep in mind, precip always arrives ahead of schedule. That’ll be important for yall down east dealing with temperature questions. 

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Everyone, prepare to get NAM’d

NM lol. Looked to be setting up for glory but way too warm. Can’t even get NAM’d

[SnowDawg]

NAM didn’t really jump east but it did come in flatter there. Hopefully thermals will work out here on that Friday night/Saturday morning activity because I think that may be my best shot. Unless Euro starts making big jumps soon, I expect to be dry for Sunday.

[wncsnow]

Nam was actually less amped than 6Z. 

[buckeyefan1]

NAM’d

[Brick Tamland]

NAM looked warmer. Wake started as snow and then the snow line moved west to Durham.

[Brick Tamland]

[NorthHillsWx]

NAM had BL temp issues for about everyone even those areas in that snow footprint. It was also earlier which does not help as it doesn’t give enough time for arctic air to bleed over mountains. It’s hour 70+ NAM so I wouldn’t look too deep into it but just another in a long line of growing thermal issues trending for everyone outside the mountains