January 16-19th: Rolling the dice

[Interstate]

Way over preformed here in 21057

[Maestrobjwa]

Wow those were the fattest flakes I've seen in awhile! And...the first time I've gotten under a yellow band in who knows how long  Nice surprise!

[jayyy]

Wow those were the fattest flakes I've seen in awhile! And...the first time I've gotten under a yellow band in who knows how long  Nice surprise!

Congrats! Just a small appetizer to gird your loins before we get cooked Jan 22 - February 10

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Exactly that same as Parkton mesonet site.

Good to know I don’t slant stick my measurements  

[Kay]

Can't wait to see the Norrisville slantsticker's total of 5.5" or w/e

[katabatic]

Pretty scene this morning at Swallow Falls State Park

[Kay]

3 minutes ago, katabatic said:

Pretty scene this morning at Swallow Falls State Park

Dreamy. Just want to take a deep breath of the air there.

HUGE fatties here now 

[mitchnick]

Fwiw 15z Rap a decent compromise for areawide snow tomorrow. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026011715&fh=42&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[T. August]

Ripping in Havre de Grace

[wxmeddler]

All sleet here in Eastern AA. Horrible.

[WxUSAF]

I’ll hug the Herpderp as well for tomorrow

[Maestrobjwa]

Who woulda thought that two threads for today and tomorrow would've been better?  What's the latest? On the western trend? I saw that the NAM was a lottle less expansive past I-95 and the GFS as well

[North Balti Zen]

18 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Way over preformed here in 21057

Whoa! I am flying back from New Mexico this AM - I will use your measurement for my spot - what do you have ? 

[jayyy]

Fwiw 15z Rap a decent compromise for areawide snow tomorrow. 
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026011715&fh=42&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Shit, I’d take another 1-2” (TWSS) especially since today and tomorrow looked dead 48 hours ago.

Looking at the RAP and HRRR 24 hours out is a dangerous game to play though. Has my parents getting 6-8” in the Hudson valley. No other model is nearly that aggressive

[Interstate]

.75 inches here. 

[jayyy]

I’ll hug the Herpderp as well for tomorrow

Pics or it didn’t happen

[North Balti Zen]

@Interstate

 

Thanks !

[RevWarReenactor]

Mt Holly is not at all impressed with tomorrow. Not sure why. Are temps the issue?

 

 

 

 

[wxman]

4 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Mt Holly is not at all impressed with tomorrow. Not sure why. Are temps the issue?

 

 

 

 

I have 1.5" down right now and still snowing hard.  That map is going to bust badly.

[batmanbrad]

WRF-ARW on board as well for tomorrow

[clskinsfan]

13 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

All sleet here in Eastern AA. Horrible.

At least you have precip. The ridiculous drought continues here. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, batmanbrad said:

WRF-ARW on board as well for tomorrow

How much is from today? 

[Eskimo Joe]

I could see another 1" - 3" for Carroll, northern Baltimore/Harford/Cecil tomorrow.

 

 

[jayyy]

Mt Holly is not at all impressed with tomorrow. Not sure why. Are temps the issue?
 
 
 
 

Thats a very reasonable forecast, IMO. 0.5-1” with colder areas (NNW) and areas seeing more precip (east) seeing the upper end of that range is a very common sense climo based approach to a storm that’s largely going to miss us. Could we boom and many of us see 1-3”? Sure, it’s possible… but mt holly isn’t going to put out a new map based on the RAP and HRRR 24 hours out

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I could see another 1" - 3" for Carroll, northern Baltimore/Harford/Cecil tomorrow.

 

 

Hoping I get 1.5”+ tomorrow

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

All sleet here in Eastern AA. Horrible.

Same here. I think its just rain now. Pretty much expected

[Physicsteve]

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Thats a very reasonable forecast, IMO. 0.5-1” with colder areas (NNW) and areas seeing more precip (east) seeing the upper end of that range is a very common sense climo based approach to a storm that’s largely going to miss us. Could we boom and many of us see 1-3”? Sure, it’s possible… but mt holly isn’t going to put out a new map based on the RAP and HRRR 24 hours out

The heading of the graphic is cut off. Could it be a minimum expected amount map? One of those stupid “best case” (weenie worst case) scenario deals. 

[CAPE]

12z CMC really shit the bed lol.

[RevWarReenactor]

3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Thats a very reasonable forecast, IMO. 0.5-2” with colder areas (NNW) and areas seeing more precip (east) seeing the upper end of that range is a very common sense climo based approach to a storm that’s largely going to miss us. Could we boom and many of us see 1-3”? Sure, it’s possible… but mt holly isn’t going to put out a new map based on the RAP and HRRR 24 hours out

Yeah im not sure where the disconnect is.

 

This is a panel off the 12z GFS. Its snows, lightly, for nearly 8 hours tomorrow. This looks like far more than an inch.

Its not a major storm. But that is screaming 2-4 inches for eastern areas.

 

 

[CAPE]

12z GFS isnt great either- still decent here but really cut back for I-95 and NW